Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights Game 6 Odds, Expert NHL Picks & Predictions

Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights Game 6 Odds, Expert NHL Picks & Predictions

This article is part of our NHL Picks series.

NHL Bets Today: Expert NHL Picks and Props for Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights

The Dallas Stars meet the Vegas Golden Knights for Game 6 of their Western Conference First Round series in the NHL Playoffs on Friday night. Puck drop is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET, and the game from T-Mobile Arena can be viewed on TNT.

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The defending Stanley Cup champion Vegas Golden Knights won the first two games on the road against the Dallas Stars, and a lot of talking heads and fans thought we might be in for a quick series. But the Stars showed tremendous resilience, and it's a good reason why Dallas had 113 points, most in the Western Conference, and second-most in the NHL to the New York Rangers (114). 

Dallas rattled off two straight wins at T-Mobile Arena in Games 3 and 4, and then got it done on home ice finally in Game 5, turning what looked like a potential sweep for Vegas into a nightmare. Now, the Golden Knights head home for Game 6 on the brink of elimination.

If we've learned anything about the Golden Knights in recent seasons, besides their tremendous ability to manipulate the long-term injured reserve (LTIR), it's that they're great when their backs are against the wall. Expect VGK to come out with its collective hair on fire in front of a raucous crowd on The Strip.

Dallas won 3-2 in overtime in Game 3 in Vegas, courtesy of a Wyatt Johnston winner. In Game 4, the Stars doubled up the Golden Knights for a rare Over result in this series, as Roope Hintz served up the bad beat with an empty-net goal in the final minute and change, flipping the total from an Under to an Over.

In Game 5, Dallas and Vegas combined for four goals, two apiece, in the first period, and then we had just one Stars goal the rest of the way. That's been a theme in this series, with 14 combined goals in the first period, and 13 total goals in the second and third periods, and one overtime session in Game 3.

Adin Hill (19-12-2, 2.71 GAA, .909 SV%, 2 SO - regular season) was first off the ice in Friday's skatearound and is projected to make his second start of the series. He allowed three goals on 25 shots in the narrow Game 5 loss in Dallas.

Jake Oettinger (35-14-4, 2.72 GAA, .905 SV%, 3 SO - regular season) has gone wire-to-wire in this series, posting a 3-2-0 record, 2.31 GAA and .911 SV% in the postseason, including three straight victories.

I feel as if Oettinger and the Stars can weather the early storm, they're going to be just fine on the road in Game 6. Momentum is clearly on the side of Dallas right now, and the question is whether it can capitalize. Go lightly on the Stars, but maybe go with a half-unit play at most.

NHL Moneyline Bets for Stars at Golden Knights

  • Stars ML (-115 at DraftKings)

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As mentioned, we've had a few fast starts in this series, with 14 total first-period goals, and 13 combined total goals in the rest of the game. That's crazy.

The Under has cashed in three of the past four games, splitting the two meetings at T-Mobile Arena. Again, in Game 4, it was Hintz's last ENG that flipped the result to an Over, after a defensive battle throughout.

I am feeling a 1-1 kind of game for a while. You might need an energy drink or two, as this game has the potential feel of going deep into the night, as defense and goaltending reigns supreme.

NHL Totals Bets for Stars at Golden Knights

  • Under 5.5 (+100 at Caesars)

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NHL Players Props for Stars at Golden Knights

While we expect a defensive slog in Game 6 in the desert, it's hard to avoid at least one Anytime Goal Scorer (AGS). Generally, when playing an Under, you won't want to work against yourself by playing an AGS prop, but here, it actually makes some sense.

For the Stars, Johnston is growing into a bona fide superstar. He scored 32 goals with 65 points in the regular season, so it isn't much of a surprise to Dallas fans that he has carried over his momentum into the postseason. But for casual fans and bettors outside of the Metroplex, the 20-year-old Ontarian is having his coming out party.

Johnston has three goals and six points in this series, striking for all of the goals and five of the points in the past three games. He has three goals at T-Mobile Arena in two games, too. For a chance to double up, Johnston is too tempting to pass up.

We'll also play the Over on Jake Oettinger's 60-Minute Save Total. Vegas is going to get increasingly desperate as the game goes along, especially if it finds itself in a hole, needing a goal to level things. 

The Golden Knights took 31.1 shots on goal (SOG) per game during the regular season, which was middle of the road. The Stars limited teams to 28.7 SOG per game, ranking 7th in the NHL. Still, as we get into the third period, Vegas is likely to uncork all kinds of crazy shots, unless, of course, they're well ahead. But since we're banking on a Dallas road win, go high on the Vegas shot total in regulation.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Daniel Dobish
Hockey writer, unskilled fourth liner, fantasy and gambling industry veteran, handicapper, FSWA's 2011 fantasy hockey writer of the year nominee and four-time FSWA award winner. Twitter: @danieledobish
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