Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights, Game 4 NHL Odds, Expert Picks & Predictions for April 29

Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights, Game 4 NHL Odds, Expert Picks & Predictions for April 29

This article is part of our NHL Picks series.

NHL Bets Today: Expert NHL Picks and Props for Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights

The Dallas Stars meet the Vegas Golden Knights for Game 4 of their Western Conference First Round series in the NHL Playoffs on Monday night. Puck drop is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET, and the game from T-Mobile Arena can be viewed or streamed on ESPN and ESPN+.

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We've had three games played in this series, and the home team has yet to be victorious. The Golden Knights posted a 4-3 win in Game 1 at American Airlines Center, and they followed that up with a 3-1 win in Game 2. The Stars, with their backs to the wall, posted a 3-2 win in overtime in Game 3, and it can seize back home-ice advantage with a victory in Game 4. But does anyone really want home-ice advantage? It doesn't seem like it.

Wyatt Johnston opened the scoring midway through the first period, with helpers to Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen, giving Dallas a 1-0 lead. Heiskanen scored early in the second period, as Dallas had a 2-0 lead. The Stars couldn't hold the lead, as Brayden McNabb scored an even-strength goal, and Jack Eichel notched one of the shorthanded variety, before no scoring in the third period.

For the first time in this series, we had free hockey, and we had 16:23 of overtime before Johnston emerged as the hero, sending the Vegas faithful away unhappy. And suddenly, we have a series again.

The Stars didn't amass 113 points by accident, as this team was just one point back of the New York Rangers for the President's Trophy, so nobody should be surprised by their resilience. By the same token, nobody should be surprised that the defending champs hold a 2-1 series lead. These might be the two best teams in the Western Conference facing one another -- in the first round.

Looking to the numbers, Dallas is once again the slight favorite on the road, and it is once again the play. The Stars should level this thing, as Jake Oettinger has played well in the series despite the series lead for VGK. Heiskanen and Robertson each have four points to lead the Stars in the postseason, but Matt Duchene, Roope Hintz, Esa Lindell and Joe Pavelski are each scoreless through three games. One of those guys need to step up and get on the board, and I think they well, in particular Hintz (see props below).

NHL Moneyline Bets for Stars at Golden Knights

  • Stars ML (-125 at DraftKings)

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The Under has cashed in the past two games, with the lone Over result coming in Game 1 in Dallas.

In that series opener, we had five combined goals in the first period. There were just two more goals scored in the final two periods of Game 1, four total goals scored in Game 2, and we had four goals scored in regulation, and the Johnston OT winner nearly a full period of overtime in Game 3. That's roughly 1.4 goals per period since that five-goal outburst in the first period of Game 1.

Looking at the wider view, Dallas has cashed low in six of the past seven games, while the Under is on a 12-3 in the past 15 games since March 22. For Vegas, the Under is 4-1 in the past five games since April 16, and the Under has cashed in three straight at The Fortress.

NHL Totals Bets for Stars at Golden Knights

  • Under 5.5 (+100 at Caesars)

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NHL Players Props for Stars at Golden Knights

We're expecting defense and goaltending to reign supreme, so we're not going to rely too heavily upon Anytime Goal Scorer (AGS) props, although we are playing one for the visitors. But we'll do three player props for this huge Game 4 matchup.

For the Stars, Hintz is scoreless in three games with just five shots on goal (SOG). That needs to change, and he is too talented to be held off of the stat sheet for much longer. He scored 30 goals with 65 points in the regular season, and he had a goal and an assist in two games during the regular season vs. Vegas. For the opportunity to double up, Hintz is a good bet. He is due.

Looking to the home side, Jack Eichel has taken nine shots on goal (SOG) in the past two games, with four in Game 2, and, well, you can do the math, five in Game 3. He has been heavily involved after going without a shot in Game 1. He should be able to get to at least four SOG in this one.

And, for a bonus third prop, let's roll with the Dallas goaltender facing a lot of vulcanized rubber. VGK was 14th in the NHL with 31.1 shots on goal (SOG) per game during the regular season, but they've only gotten to the mark once in this series, and that was Game 3. Look for Vegas to get plenty of shots on Jake Oettinger, who made 32 saves last time out. Remember, that one nearly went four periods with the overtime session, so don't get too carried away.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Daniel Dobish
Hockey writer, unskilled fourth liner, fantasy and gambling industry veteran, handicapper, FSWA's 2011 fantasy hockey writer of the year nominee and four-time FSWA award winner. Twitter: @danieledobish
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