Weekly Preview: WM Phoenix Open

WM Phoenix Open

TPC Scottsdale
Scottsdale, AZ

The PGA Tour heads to Scottsdale for the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

It's the biggest party in golf and a pretty cool lead-up to the Super Bowl, but perhaps the most exciting thing about this year's event is the field. A fair number of top-tier golfers usually show up, but this time around, things have gone to another level, with 15 of the top 20 in the world present. 

Need some more excitement? Sports betting is now legal in Arizona! So, take that lathered-up energy from the 16th hole and add in some money on the line. It's going to be extremely wild on the 16th hole this week. Not just wild. Extremely wild. Will this result in fans streaking across the green or yelling "Noonan" prior to a putt? It's possible. I'm not expecting too many shenanigans...until the weekend. This hole always is always a fun spectacle in itself, and it alone is reason to tune in, particularly with spectators excited to get back to it after a year off.

As for the golf, with plenty of talent on hand and plenty of course history, we should be able to pinpoint some quality plays.

LAST YEAR

Brooks Koepka shot a final-round 65 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Xander Schauffele and K.H. Lee.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (7-1)

Rahm is a staple atop the odds chart these days, and it doesn't matter who is in the field. Dustin Johnson used to hold that title, but he hasn't won in over a year, so Rahm is the new king. Rahm's track record at this event is very solid. Although he has not won, he's never finished worse than T16. His best showing was a T5 in 2015. Rahm needs something to get him over the hump in this event, and perhaps being winless in 2022 is the motivation he needs.

Justin Thomas (10-1)

Thomas is Robin to Rahm's Batman on the betting board. If both are playing, you can expect JT to be right behind Rahm unless JT is on a heater, in which case he might even pull even. Thomas has a strong track record here, but he's not quite as consistent as Rahm. On the plus side, he recorded two top-3s in his past three starts here. Thomas' form right now is a little puzzling, as he bolted to the top of the leaderboard a couple weeks ago only to fade on the weekend. I'm not sure he's locked in at the moment.

Patrick Cantlay (16-1)

You know you've reached another level when you take a lead at any point and everyone expects you to win afterward. That's what happened this past week at Pebble Beach, as Cantlay was in position to win early on and most people thought it was a forgone conclusion he would close. He did not, though, which to me means he's not quite who we think he is...yet. Cantlay is one of the best golfers in the world, but he's not Rahm or JT right now. A win this week would get him closer, but he's a first-timer here and I don't see it happening.

THE NEXT TIER

Viktor Hovland (18-1)

Speaking of reaching another level, Hovland has been busy picking up wins all over the globe, and his next mission is to assert his dominance on the PGA Tour. Right now, he's thought of as a strong player with plenty of potential, but if he wants to join the ranks of the elite, he needs to start winning on a consistent basis -- and winning high-profile events. A win against this field would qualify as a quality win, but he has a hurdle to climb, having only played here once and missing the cut. With that said, that was two years ago, and he's come a long way since.

Hideki Matsuyama (18-1)

You may have noticed that the odds in this section are close to the odds in the 'favorites' category, and that's by design. Unlike this past week, I don't see much, if any, room for an underdog to win. There is just too much talent, not only at the very top but just below it as well. As for Matsuyama, there was a time when he was a lock here. From 2014-2017 he posted two wins, a runner-up and a T4. His performance dropped off over the past four years, but with him catching fire at last year's Masters and not slowing much since, expect the old Matsuyama to show up this time around.

Webb Simpson (40-1)

Okay, I'm making up for the short odds on the first two guys with some longer odds on the last golfer in this group. I'm a little surprised that Simpson checks in at this number, but when you consider all the talent in front of him, it makes sense. Simpson won this event in 2020 and posted a runner-up in 2017. He has a total of five top-10s in 11 starts here. His form isn't at its peak, but that could change quickly. At 40-1, he's worth a long look.

LONG SHOTS

Harold Varner III (60-1)

It's hard enough to win back-to-back weeks on the PGA Tour, let alone winning overseas one week and stateside the next, but who knows? Maybe Varner's scintillating win in Saudi Arabia will be they key that unlocks his full potential. We've known for a while that Varner has talent, but closing was always the issue. Now that he has done just that, perhaps he will go on a run stateside.

Rickie Fowler (80-1)

How great would it be to see Fowler in the winner's circle? He has struggled mightily for a few years, but he showed signs that he might be on the way back over the past couple months. His track record in this event is all over the map, but he's had some great weeks in Arizona, including a runner-up in 2016, a T4 in 2017 and a win in 2019. He's not the same golfer that won here three years ago, but that player is still in there somewhere.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Hideki Matsuyama - His win at the Masters and fine play since has put him back on the map. As such, he is going to be very popular this week. There are so many options that his ownership might be watered down, but he should still be at the top of the list.

Moderately-owned Pick: Webb Simpson - With so many big-money events left on the calendar, it's hard to imagine many OAD players burning the likes of Rahm or JT in this event. Simpson will be a great alternative. He will have a lot of value at the Wyndham Championship later in the year, but he's been pretty solid in this event over the years.

Lightly-owned Pick: Keith Mitchell - It's rare that a player makes his first appearance in this article in this section, but without any other desirable options, I'm going with Mitchell. I have to admit, part of this is because I've seen him hyped on Twitter the last few days, and OAD players are on Twitter, so it's a natural connection. The reason for the hype is his recent play, not his track record here. Mitchell posted a top-15 in three of his past four starts.

Buyer Beware: Brooks Koepka - When I analyze Koepka's chances before an event I start with my gut, and right now I am not feeling it. He's the defending champ, and he's actually won here twice, which means he cares about winning here. However, his form is poor right now and I don't feel any urgency for him to show out this week. If we know one thing about Koepka, it is that he has to feel the need to win to perform well.

Last Week: Jason Day - T24 - $74,603

Season Total: $2,938,674

This Week: Hideki Matsuyama - One thing I should note before I move on: Don't forget to look at the purse when making picks. Yes, there are a ton of high-end players in the field, but last year's winner took home just over $1.3 million. Compare that to the winner of THE PLAYERS Championship, who took home $2.7 million, and you can see why we save elite players for bigger events. I lover the elite players available, but it's not worth going with them in this instance. Matsuyama has value down the road, but I'm not using him at the Masters and have no desire to use him at the other majors or THE PLAYERS. His best chance to win this year is in Phoenix.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Jon Rahm $12,100
Middle Range: Bubba Watson $10,200
Lower Range: Keith Mitchell $8,800

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Jason Day - T24

Streak: 1

This Week: Bubba Watson - I'm going off script and using Watson, who didn't appear in this article until the FanDuel section. I wanted to mention him somewhere but couldn't find the proper spot until now. Watson is coming off a great showing overseas and his track record here is outstanding, with numerous top-5s and 13 made cuts in 15 starts. Watson will also be in play as a one-and-done selection this week.