Weekly Preview: The Masters

The Masters

Augusta National Golf Club
Augusta, GA

The PGA Tour heads to Augusta as the first major of 2021 gets underway. 

It's only been five months since the 2020 Masters, but in some ways, this edition of the Masters feels like one we've been waiting on for a long time. Perhaps it's because everything about 2020 felt so strange and only recently have things in the sporting world started to feel somewhat normal again. It's amazing how much fans add to the atmosphere of any sporting event. I wrote last year that I didn't miss spectators all that much during the normal PGA Tour stops, but at the majors, it sure adds to the experience and I'm glad we'll have some "patrons" on site this year. 

As always, there are plenty of storylines heading into the Masters -- Will DJ repeat? Is Jordan Spieth all the way back? -- but I'm most interested in seeing how the course plays back in its regular spot on the calendar. Augusta is known for its danger on and around the greens, but rain can sometimes spoil the fun and make things too easy for these guys. After last year's winning score came in at 20-under-par, it is assumed that the setup will be a bit more challenging this time around. However, rain could be a factor on the weekend, and that could be a factor when it comes to determining who takes home the green jacket.

LAST YEAR

Dustin Johnson shot a final-round 68 on his way to a five-stroke victory over Sungjae Im and Cameron Smith.

FAVORITES

Dustin Johnson (8-1)

I'm going to get this out of the way right now: the results from the 2020 Masters should not be relied upon heavily this week. The course played much differently than it will this time around, so when it comes to golfers who played well last year but didn't have a strong track record beforehand, I'll more than likely pass. That's not the case with DJ, though, as he had fared well at Augusta prior to his win last year. DJ is rightfully the favorite, and if I had to pick one guy to win, it would be him. At 8-1, though, there's just not enough value to lay a wager.

Jordan Spieth (10-1)

It was crazy to think even weeks ago that Spieth would be the second favorite, but after finally getting back into the winner's circle this past week the likelihood of Spieth grabbing another green jacket became a lot more real. When Spieth was at the top of his game, he was the closest thing to a lock at this event. His worst showing in seven starts was a T21 last year, and remember how far off his game he was at that time. He's only won this event once, but he has an amazing four top-3s in his seven starts. The only thing working against him is that after his win this past week, everyone expects him to contend at Augusta. It's flimsy, but it's one of those deals where everything is pointing to a strong showing, and we all know what can happen when the expectations ratchet up. Then again, all signs pointed to a DJ win last year, so it certainly isn't possible to win in this scenario.

Bryson DeChambeau (12-1)

As long as DeChambeau continues to outdrive everyone in the field, he's going to have a chance to win every time out. The problem is, it's hard to gauge when he's going to combine the distance with the accuracy. If the course winds up playing faster this week, DeChambeau should be just fine, as he's always had a good short game. That part just always gets overshadowed by his prowess off the tee. The concern with DeChambeau is that he's never cracked the top 20 here in four starts, so he hasn't entirely figured his way around. However, we've never witnessed this version of DeChambeau at a spring edition of the Masters.

THE NEXT TIER

Xander Schauffele (20-1)

Spieth's reemergence might indirectly help Schauffele find his first major win. It sounds like a stretch, I know, but the one thing I didn't like about Schauffele over the past couple years is all the expectations placed on him by the media. Prior to almost every major in recent years, Schauffele was the darling of anyone with a keyboard. But now that Spieth is back and there are so many legitimate contenders, it feels like Schauffele is sneaking in undetected, and that's when he's played his best golf.

Patrick Reed (30-1)

It took Reed a few years to find his groove at Augusta, but now that he's won here, it seems like he's got it figured out. Reed could only manage a T36 while defending his title in 2019, but he came back strong with a top-10 last year. He's never going to be among the favorites because the public doesn't get behind him, but he's one of a handful of players that can win, and at 30-1, there's plenty of value here.

Brooks Koepka (40-1)

Can you believe that after the start Koepka had to his season, there are at least 10 guys with better odds than him this week? Yeah, we all know why he's in this range, because no one expected him to be here after undergoing a procedure on his knee. Well, he is here, and if he can somehow maneuver around on his surgically-repaired knee, then he can win, which is more than I can say for most guys in this range. Honestly, would you rather place a wager on Koepka at 40-1 or Tony Finau at 30-1? Finau has a lot more to overcome this week than Koepka.

LONG SHOTS

Webb Simpson (50-1)

There are a couple reasons why Simpson is listed at these odds. First, he has only had an average season by his standards, checking in at 39th on the Money List. Second, he struggled early in his career at this event and failed to earn a reputation as a golfer who excels here. To the first point about his form, while he's not tearing it up this season, he does have two top-10s in his past five starts. To the second point, sure, he started poorly at Augusta, but he's certainly figured it out over the past three years, posting a T20, a T5 and T10 in his three most recent trips here.

Lee Westwood (50-1)

Apologies to all the Spieth fans out there, but a Westwood win this week is the best possible outcome. Westwood was dead in the water a few years ago, but he has somehow found his game again and looks ready to make another run at a green jacket. Westwood has obviously never won here, but he has a pair of runner-ups and a T3. He's also been remarkably consistent, even in his down years, making the cut in 16 of 19 starts.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Jordan Spieth - For those that waited on Spieth with the hope that he'd peak this week, his win in Texas was the worst possible outcome. Not only did a lot of OAD players cash in on Spieth last week, but now it makes a win this week more unlikely. Or does it? Perhaps he needed that win to give him the confidence to contend at a major again. Though it seems impossible to win a major the week after winning a standard PGA Tour event, it has been done, so why not again? Looking ahead, you may not see better odds on Spieth to win this season, unless of course he wins this week. In that scenario, you certainly would not have made the wrong decision.

Moderately-owned Pick: Dustin Johnson - Outside of Spieth, it's not very clear how the distribution will look this week, but DJ is sure to have some backers. DeChambeau isn't a "Masters" guy yet, Jon Rahm just became a father and Rory McIlroy is a bit lost right now, so I'm expecting a wide range of picks. DJ doesn't have much value on a win ticket this week, but he's certainly a good play in OAD formats.

Lightly-owned Pick: Lee Westwood - It's generally a good idea to take someone you think can win, and while Westwood's odds aren't great, he does have a chance to play well and cash a big check. Westwood has played some of the best golf of his life over the past couple months and he's no stranger to playing well here, which makes him a great option if you're trying to gain ground on your competition.

Buyer Beware: Jon Rahm - Rahm is listed among the favorites just like he has been for many majors in recent years, but there's something different about him this week, something that's life-altering -- he's now a father. I realize he may not be up at 3 AM this week changing diapers, but this is a huge life event, and it's hard to envision he will be 100 percent focused on golf. Now, can he still play well if he's not totally locked in? Maybe, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Last Week: Charley Hoffman - 2 - $839,300

Season Total: $3,192,763

This Week: Lee Westwood - There's no way around it -- I'm in a rut when it comes to my OAD picks. I'm overthinking everything. I had Hoffman listed in this article last week, but in my pool, I switched to Abraham Ancer for some reason. Hopefully you followed my listed pick, unlike me. It might seem like a stretch to take Westwood, but I don't like my high-end options this week, and I don't feel as if I'm reaching for Westwood. Sure, he's not among the favorites and I could go with a bigger name like Justin Thomas or DeChambeau, but I'm not feeling those guys. Westwood is just as likely as anyone in the field to finish top-10, and who knows, maybe he stumbles into another runner-up or even a win.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Jordan Spieth ($10,900)
Middle Range: Paul Casey ($9,900)
Lower Range: Ian Poulter ($8,500)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Charley Hoffman - 2

Streak: 1

This Week: Paul Casey - There are many good options, and while a bigger name may seem safer, Casey is about as safe as it gets. He missed the cut just once in his past six tries and in four of those starts ended up inside the top 15 by the end of the week. He's also shown some good form this season. Casey comes in under the radar, but he should make some noise before it's all said and done.