Weekly Preview: Genesis Invitational

The Genesis Invitational

Riviera CC
Pacific Palisades, CA

The Tour heads down the coast to famed Riviera, and man do we have a field this week. 

Heading into the previous event, we were in awe of Dustin Johnson's odds to win, but just as soon as we started to wonder when we last saw anyone lower 5-1, DJ decided to withdraw. What was left were a couple golfers in the "could be elite someday" category and a bunch of guys past their prime. Luckily, most of the favorites showed up, and it was actually a pretty interesting weekend.

This week, however, there are so many big-name players in the field, it feels like we can't miss. Of course, anyone who has watched golf knows that things can go awry quickly, and before you know it, you've got David Lingmerth and Eric Axley in a playoff. With that said, there is far too much substance at the top of the chart this week for a sapling to sprout, and there is bound to be a big name or several near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon. It's not that a long shot can't win -- this event has produced quite a few surprises over the years -- but the high-end talent on Tour now seems more reliable than ever, and I'm betting that a big name comes out on top.

LAST YEAR

Adam Scott shot a final-round 70 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Matt Kuchar, Sung Kang and Scott Brown.

FAVORITES

Dustin Johnson (11-2)

DJ skips one week and his odds skyrocket up to 11-2? In all honesty, his 4-1 odds this past week were partially a reflection of the field, but this week is a different story, as almost all the big names are present. Even with all these elite players on hand, Johnson is still the clear favorite, and rightly so. He's the best golfer on the planet right now, and his track record here is very impressive, with nine top-10s in 13 starts -- six of which came in his last seven appearances.

Jon Rahm (12-1)

Rahm is no stranger to finding himself among the favorites, but considering the strength of the field -- especially at the top -- I'm not sure only one player should fall ahead of him. His track record at this event is solid, but he only has two starts here, and his best finish was a T9 in 2019. We aren't going to stop you from making this pick, but considering there are a lot of quality golfers in this field that have multiple top-5 results on their ledger, Rahm seems like a bit of a reach at this price.

Rory McIlroy (14-1)

The oddsmakers -- and for that matter, the public -- just can't get away from McIlroy. Week after week he's among the favorites, and week after week he fails to win. I'm not sure who is placing their money on McIlroy to win, but they must be going broke. This is not a rip on McIlroy; he's recording quality results. But he plays well almost every single week and still can't find a win. To be exact, it's been 19 events since his last win on Tour. That's not outrageous, but he's been among the favorites in every one of those starts. You can see why someone who keeps backing him to win might be frustrated. A top-5 finish? Top-10? Sure. But there's little upside in betting Rory to win right now.

THE NEXT TIER

Bryson DeChambeau (18-1)

It won't be easy to gets odds near 20-1 on DeChambeau the rest of the season, so this might be the time to strike. Honestly, I'm a little surprised he's this far down the list this week. There are six players listed in front of DeChambeau, and not all six have stellar track records here. As for DeChambeau's track record in this event, well, it's okay. He has just one top-5 here, but everything prior to his physical transformation needs to almost be set aside, especially the negative parts. He's a different player now.

Brooks Koepka (25-1)

Like DeChambeau, these odds aren't going to last long if Koepka plays well again. The jury is still out on Koepka's ability to perform outside the major tournaments, but after his win two weeks ago, I'm beginning to think he might be trying to prove something this season. The fact that he's behind this many guys on the odds chart -- and is significantly behind DJ -- will not be lost on him either. If Koepka is indeed determined to be more consistent, then this might be the last time we see 25-1 on him for a really long time.

Daniel Berger (35-1)

"Hello? Guy who just won here, can I get a little respect? 35-1? Okay, guess not." It's not like Berger is some flash in the pan that's going to crumble the week after a big win. Berger has been through plenty ups and downs over the past few years, and everything we've seen from him over the past 12 months leads me to believe he's still trending upwards. Working against him this week, however is his track record in this event, as he failed to make the cut in either of his two starts here.  He hasn't played here since 2018, though, and he's better now than he ever was before.

LONG SHOTS

Bubba Watson (40-1)  

I'm getting Bubba fatigue, and I'm admittedly trying to stop myself from writing this blurb because Watson hasn't shown much this season. But I just can't forget that he's won this thing three times. Three times! Sure, he's not quite the same player now that he was when he last won here in 2018, but did I mention that he's won here three times? There are three types of golfers that can win in a field like this: an elite player, a guy that has no clue how hard it is to win, and someone that's been there and done that, not only here, but against elite fields. At the least, Bubba falls in that last category.

Matthew Wolff (60-1)

Wolff hasn't taken down an elite field, but he came close at the U.S. Open last year. He's already proven that he's not going to shrink when the moment gets big, and when he's on, he resembles an elite golfer. The problem of course is his form, which hasn't been great this season. Wolff made the cut in his most recent start, but he hasn't been playing like the guy who just missed taking home his first major title a few months ago. Wolff has never needed momentum to play well, as his best three finishes on Tour have all come after a poor showing in his previous start.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Dustin Johnson - I was tempted to copy and paste what I had written for DJ this past week, but that's just not right, so I came up with a few new thoughts. I'm guessing that many OAD players will want to save DJ for a major, but unless he wins every start between now and the Masters, he's not going to be 11-2 at Augusta or any major. He's hot and he has a stellar track record here. This looks like a good spot to deploy him.

Moderately-owned Pick: Adam Scott - I did not mention Scott above, but that's because there are so many interesting angles this week. Scott just might be the most interesting player of the bunch. Track record? You want track record? How about two wins and two runner-ups? That's what Scott is bringing to the table this week. He's a safe play, as he is bound to play well, and you won't have buyer's remorse using him this early in the season. He's going to be a popular play, though, so he isn't a guy that will afford you much differentiation in your league.

Lightly-owned Pick: Maverick McNealy - Again, there are so many good options that I couldn't find a place for McNealy earlier. He has no track record in this event to speak of, and he's not exactly the most consistent player on Tour, but he comes in hot after challenging Berger this past week and I liked what he had to say in his interview after the final round. The California native knows the greens, and he seemed to learn something about himself this past Sunday. It may be just a hunch, but I think he continues riding the momentum.

Buyer Beware: Jordan Spieth - There's no doubt that Spieth is getting close. He's hanging around longer than he did at any point in the past few years. But this is a different beast, and to contend this week he's going to need yet another gear, one I'm not sure he has right now. His track record here is all over the place, which doesn't boost my confidence in him. My guess is that he takes his lumps at Riviera and comes back even better in his next start.

Last Week: Paul Casey - T5 - $301,275

Season Total: $1,793,867

This Week: Dustin Johnson - I had DJ in this spot last week before he withdrew, and I'll admit that I wasn't very comfortable with that, as I did not want to lose him so early in the season.  But I'm good with him this week. His consistency here is off the charts, and while he's only won here once, he does have two runner-ups, a T3 and a pair of T4s. He's playing his best golf right now, and you never know what can happen down the road. Maybe he gets in a funk, maybe he slips on the stairs. Nothing is guaranteed.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Dustin Johnson ($12,100)
Middle Range: Adam Scott ($10,600)
Lower Range: Maverick McNealy ($9,000)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Phil Mickelson - MC

Streak: 0

This Week: Adam Scott - I got a little careless this past week, putting my streak on the line with a guy that hadn't played well on Tour in a while. But it's time to right the ship and go with a pick that makes absolute sense. Not only does Scott have the high-end finishes you like to see, he also has made the cut in 11 of his 12 starts at Riviera. Other than the best of the best, he's as safe as it gets.