Weekly Preview: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Pebble Beach Golf Links
Pebble Beach, CA

The PGA Tour heads to Pebble Beach this week, but unfortunately, all the firepower that teed it up in Phoenix failed to make the connecting flight. "The good news is, Dustin Johnson, fresh off a win overseas, will be present." That's what I wanted to write, but news came out Monday night that DJ will also be skipping this week's event.

For those that took an early look at the odds, you were probably flabbergasted to see DJ sitting at 4-1 before he withdrew. We haven't seen odds like that since the early 2000s, when Tiger Woods ruled the golf world. I was curious to see how things would play out with such a heavy favorite, but alas, we will not get that opportunity.

The field this week, which more closely resembles a major-tweener in the middle of the summer than a typical AT&T Pebble Beach field, is ripe for the picking. This could be one of those weeks in which someone finally breaks through for his first PGA Tour win. This isn't an easy course, however, and the conditions aren't going to be great, so whoever comes out on top will have earned it.

LAST YEAR

Nick Taylor shot a final-round 70 on his way to a four-stroke victory over Kevin Streelman.

FAVORITES

Patrick Cantlay (10-1)

It seems odd that anyone would come in near 10-1 when there's a 4-1 favorite on the board, but considering the lack of top-tier options, it makes a little more sense to see Cantlay here. Cantlay doesn't have the high-end finishes that I'd like to see, but he has made the cut all four times he played here, and he has finished T9 and T11 on separate occasions. His form looks good, as he finished solo-second in his most recent start at The American Express.

Daniel Berger (18-1)

Berger is coming off a season that resurrected his career, and while he's played well in seven starts since the new campaign began, he hasn't shown that extra gear yet. Berger posted top-10s in his first two starts of 2021, but he missed the cut last week. Berger's track record here is appealing, as he's posted top-10s in his only two starts at this event.

THE NEXT TIER

Paul Casey (20-1)

Casey struggled for most of 2020, but he's off to a great start in 2021. He hasn't done much on Tour this year, but he did win an overseas event a couple weeks ago, so we know he is playing well. As for his track record here, he hasn't played this event much over the years, but he returned from a long break in 2018, and he's posted two top-10s in three starts since, including a runner-up in 2019.

Jordan Spieth (27-1)

What a difference a week makes. Heading into this past week's tournament, Spieth was not even an afterthought. After three solid rounds in Phoenix, however, he's back in the mix -- well, he's back to the point where we can talk about his chances of winning. Like last week, he's going to have a tough time coming out on top, but he just needs to do it once to show that the old Spieth is back. Speaking of the old Spieth, that guy has a solid track record here, with four top-10s in eight starts, including a win in 2017.

Will Zalatoris (27-1)

Zalatoris is playing like Viktor Hovland did out of the gate two summers back. He hasn't won a PGA Tour event, but he's almost always in the mix, almost always finding himself on the second page of the leaderboard, if not the first. He will obviously need to figure out how to close, and it will be tough to get the best of Pebble this week. Still, once this guy wins, you can kiss odds like this goodbye for a long time.

LONG SHOTS

Jason Day (33-1)

I generally like to find longer odds for my long shots, but this week is a little different. I think you need a guy who has either proven he can get the job done, or a young guy who doesn't realize what he's doing. With the weather looking sketchy, and considering the difficulty of this track, it's going to be a grind, and you'll want someone who is mentally tough. Day is one guy that has the ability to close one out, but he'll need to play like he has in the past at this event. Day has seven top-10s in 11 starts here.

Sam Burns (42-1)  

I had Burns in this section last week at 80-1, and after another solid performance, his odds are starting to tick down. This is as low as they'll likely go for a while, though, unless he wins sometime soon. Speaking of that, he hasn't won a PGA Tour event, but he's trending in the right direction. There are always 10-to-20 guys on Tour at any given point that have played well enough to make you think they can win, but most of them never break through. Some come close, others fade away, but that elusive win is hard to come by. Can Burns break out of this pack and get a win? He'll need to find some consistency on the weekend, but he's got the first two rounds figured out.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Patrick Cantlay - Johnson's removal from the field seems to open the door for the remaining elites. There aren't many of those, so it would seem that Cantlay has a big advantage. I can't argue with that, but I would prefer Cantlay had a better track record here. His record isn't poor, but he hasn't been a threat to win. With that said, Cantlay is certainly a quality pick in this field.

Moderately-owned Pick: Paul Casey - Now that DJ is out of the picture, there are a lot of guys back in the mix. The problem is, there isn't much separating them. Casey won just a couple weeks ago though, and his upside is as high as anyone in the field. His track record here is strong, and his form is good. I can't argue with this.

Lightly-owned Pick: Jordan Spieth - I know he got everyone's hopes up this past week in Phoenix, but I don't think the OAD players are sold quite yet. This lot usually takes a little more time to come around that the rest, which is why I don't believe Spieth will be as popular as you might think. With that in mind, I kind of like going with him. His confidence should be high, and he's played well here, even when his game was off.

Buyer Beware: Daniel Berger  - I struggled finding a player that fit the criteria for this section, but I settled on Berger. He's one of the favorites, but there are several others golfers I would take in his stead. Berger has a good track record here, but he hasn't shown the spark that he had last year. Until he does, I'm going to hold off on using him in these contests.

Last Week: Hideki Matsuyama - T42 - $23,853

Season Total: $1,492,592

This Week: Paul Casey - When I first wrote this article on Monday night, I had DJ in this spot. Yes, I was ready to use my most valuable chip in month two. To be honest, I'm actually a little relieved that I'll still have him in the bag for later in the season. I don't feel that Casey is a consolation prize, though. I thought hard about using him instead of DJ, and now I don't have to think about it any longer. I also considered Spieth, Zalatoris and even Mickelson, but Casey seems like the right play.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Paul Casey ($11,400)
Middle Range: Phil Mickelson ($10,200)
Lower Range: Scott Stallings ($8,800)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Hideki Matsuyama - T42

Streak: 5

This Week: Phil Mickelson - It sure seems risky to take a man in his 50s who has not recorded a top-25 finish since his last appearance here, but when you consider Mickelson finished third here last year, first the year before, and T2 the year before that, suddenly the pick becomes plenty reasonable. Mickelson hasn't missed a cut here since 2008, and now that his PGA Tour options are limited, you can bet that he's going to be focused on each and every event he appears in. He certainly won't be looking past this week.