This article is part of our Weekly PGA Recap series.
Depending on when you're reading this, it's been almost 24 hours, or more, since Dustin Johnson edged Jordan Spieth in a riveting final round to win the year's first FedEx Cup playoff event. You likely watched The Northern Trust on TV, or at least have seen highlights. No need for us to review all the details here, however awesome they were.
Our big takeaway – besides Spieth blowing an enormous lead (more on that later) – is how the top players year in and year out rise to the top of the playoffs. There are very few outliers since the inception of the playoffs in 2007. It's something to really focus on when playing DraftKings or one of the other DFS sites for the final three events, beginning Friday at the newly named Dell Technologies Championship outside Boston.
The last nine winners of playoff events since 2015 are Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Johnson, McIlroy, Patrick Reed, Spieth, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler and Day. We haven't seen that much chalk since grade school.
The 11 years of the playoffs haven't always been quite so consistently top heavy, but there haven't been many long-shot winners either. Only nine times has anyone even outside the top-20 in the world won one of the four events, and only twice in the 41 tournaments to date has a true dark horse won: No. 197 Heath Slocum in the 2009 Barclays (now The Northern Trust) and No. 132 Charley Hoffman in the 2010 Deutsche Bank (now the
Depending on when you're reading this, it's been almost 24 hours, or more, since Dustin Johnson edged Jordan Spieth in a riveting final round to win the year's first FedEx Cup playoff event. You likely watched The Northern Trust on TV, or at least have seen highlights. No need for us to review all the details here, however awesome they were.
Our big takeaway – besides Spieth blowing an enormous lead (more on that later) – is how the top players year in and year out rise to the top of the playoffs. There are very few outliers since the inception of the playoffs in 2007. It's something to really focus on when playing DraftKings or one of the other DFS sites for the final three events, beginning Friday at the newly named Dell Technologies Championship outside Boston.
The last nine winners of playoff events since 2015 are Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Johnson, McIlroy, Patrick Reed, Spieth, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler and Day. We haven't seen that much chalk since grade school.
The 11 years of the playoffs haven't always been quite so consistently top heavy, but there haven't been many long-shot winners either. Only nine times has anyone even outside the top-20 in the world won one of the four events, and only twice in the 41 tournaments to date has a true dark horse won: No. 197 Heath Slocum in the 2009 Barclays (now The Northern Trust) and No. 132 Charley Hoffman in the 2010 Deutsche Bank (now the Dell). Every other winner has been no worse than in the top-50 in the OWGR.
That tells us that something we're fond of doing during the season – a balanced DraftKings roster with no one at the highest end so we can avoid the low-end guys – might not work at this time of year.
Certainly the way Johnson and Spieth played this week at Glen Oaks Club in Old Westbury, N.Y., indicates they could contend throughout the playoffs. Johnson finally appears healthy for the first time since falling down stairs on the eve of the Masters in April. And Spieth has been sharp for two months.
MONDAY BACKSPIN
Dustin Johnson
Johnson now has four career wins in the playoffs (out of 41 total events). He's finished in the top-10 in seven of the last nine playoff starts, a mind-boggling run of consistency. He was T8 at TPC Boston last year. We could go on, but you get the point.
Jordan Spieth
If we would've told you that Spieth would have a five-stroke lead on Sunday and not win … well, that's exactly what happened. Spieth is considered the top closer among today's golfers, converting 9-of-11 54-hole leads into victories. But the two misses are doozies: Sunday and the 2016 Masters. Spieth tied for fourth in his debut at TPC Boston in 2013 but has struggled since, without a top-20. That said, Spieth has won twice since late June and will be looking to make up for his collapse at Glen Oaks.
Jon Rahm
As impressive as Rahm has been this season, he's still a rookie, and he figuratively disappeared for three months until resurfacing this past week. He tied for third at The Northern Trust and was close to making it a three-man tournament. But before that his five previous PGA Tour events looked like this: cut, cut, T44, T28, T58. Johnson and Spieth seem like better bets to contend again this week.
Jhonattan Vegas
Vegas endured a five-tournament stretch over the summer far worse than Rahm – five straight missed cuts. But he then won the Canadian Open, tied for 17th at the WGC-Bridgestone and now tied Rahm for third at Glen Oaks. So he certainly flipped a switch but still should be favorably priced this week. Someone to consider.
Jason Day
Lost amid the DJ-Spieth duel was Day's tie for sixth. The former No. 1, now down to No. 9, has been fighting for relevance all season. A few times earlier in the year, his game appeared close. But Day kept taking steps back. Day won two playoff events two years ago, so he shouldn't be dismissed in these playoffs.
Patrick Cantlay
Cantlay has not missed a cut all season. He's been in only 10 events, but still. The rookie tied for 10th to move to 50th in the point standings, jumping 28 spots. The move into the top-30 will be harder, probably requiring at least two more top-10s, if not better. But Cantlay has shown an ability to compete in some quality fields. Next year may be more his time to break through.
Bubba Watson
Watson tied for 10th, becoming one of three golfers to climb inside the top-100 in the point standings to keep his season alive. Watson is now 72nd and needs only to jump two more spots to qualify for Chicago in three weeks. But the way Watson has been coming on after a mostly dismal season, qualifying for the Tour Championship is not out of the question.
Harold Varner
Varner also broke into the top-100 a week after jumping into the top-125 at the last possible minute. His tie for 20th at Glen Oaks got him from 123rd in points to 91st. It would take a really stellar week to crack the top-70, so we're thinking Varner's magical run ends this week. The third golfer to qualify for the Dell after starting the week outside the top-100 was David Lingmerth, who's now 87th.
Rory McIlroy
McIlroy tied for 34th at The Northern Trust, he'll be in Boston this week and should have no trouble reaching the third playoff event, the BMW. But McIlroy's goal is the Tour Championship. The way he's playing now, that's no sure thing. He's 43rd in the point standings and would need one good week in the next two.
Rafa Cabrera Bello
The Spaniard is the 18th-ranked golfer in the world but he sits only 80th in the point standings after missing the cut at Glen Oaks. He'll need to jump 10 spots this week or his first season as a PGA Tour member will be considered a bust. In fact, anything short of East Lake for a golfer so highly ranked would be a disappointment.
Jimmy Walker
Walker missed the cut to bow out of the playoffs after one event, quite a turn for one of the Tour's best just a few years ago. But Walker was diagnosed with Lyme disease a few months back and he's fallen from 21st to 39th in the world rankings this year. At 38, Walker's best days on a golf course are behind him.
Steve Stricker
Stricker also exited after one playoff tournament, missing the cut at Glen Oaks. But Stricker is over 50 years old, a Champions Tour member and also is preparing to captain the Presidents Cup team next month. It was an accomplishment even to reach the top-125. It will be interesting to see how Stricker does next season, when his Presidents Cup responsibilities won't be a drag on his game.
Byeong Hun An
An was one of three golfers to fall outside of the top-100 and see his season end. Robert Garrigus and Seung-Yul Noh are the other two. But An is the shocker. The former U.S. Amateur champion and European Tour rookie of the year managed only four top-25s in 22 starts. He had three in a row bridging May and June, but he did virtually nothing the rest of the season. It's hard to envision An having such a poor season in 2017-18.
