Shriners Open Preview: Spieth Looks to Get Lucky in Vegas

With the Asian swing complete, the PGA Tour heads back to the states this week for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. Through five events, Brooks Koepka is the only big name to take home a title this fall, but that could change this week with some major talent in the field. Cameron Champ broke through at the Sanderson Farms Championship, which wasn't a huge surprise as at least one rookie generally finds a win during the fall season. With two weeks to go, don't be surprised if another rookie makes a run during the final two weeks of the fall season.

This week: Shriners Open - TPC Summerlin, Las Vegas

Last Year: Patrick Cantlay shot a final-round 66 on his way to a playoff victory over Alex Cejka and Whee Kim.

FAVORITES

Rickie Fowler (11-1)

Fowler is the co-favorite this week, but his status is largely based on his name as there isn't much to get excited about this week. Fowler has played this event three times and has finished in the top 25 all three times, but his best finish was a T7 in 2009. He also hasn't played on the PGA Tour since the end of last season, so we can't be sure of his form.

Tony Finau (11-1)

The fact that Finau is the co-favorite means the odds-makers like his chances. Duh, right? What I mean is, it would be easy to put Jordan Spieth or Bryson DeChambeau ahead of him because of name recognition, but they didn't and there's probably a good reason for that. His co-favorite status is undoubtedly tied to his runner-up showing last week at the WGC-HSBC Champions.

Jordan Spieth (12-1)

Spieth is getting the benefit of doubt as the third favorite, because he certainly hasn't done anything lately to deserve it. He is, though, Jordan Spieth, and sooner or later, he'll get his game back. Perhaps the time off since the Ryder Cup is all he needs. At this price, though, there isn't much value this week.

MID-TIER PLAYERS

Bryson DeChambeau (12-1)

Not really a "middle-tier" guy, but this week there are some big guns and a bunch of lower-tier players and not much between. DeChambeau couldn't possibly keep up the pace he set late last season, but he's always been a talent, and the fact he had so much success last season wasn't a huge surprise. DeChambeau finished T7 here last year as well, which means he knows how to get around this course.

Patrick Cantlay (16-1)

There's plenty to like about Cantlay this week. He's the defending champion and has started this season where he left off last season. Cantlay has only played this event once, which means there isn't a lot of history to go off, but he obviously did OK in his only start here. As for his form, he finished T17 in his first start this season and T7 last week against some stiff competition at the HSBC.

Cameron Champ (33-1)

Is Champ the real deal? We're about to find out this season. Of course, I don't expect him to win in consecutive weeks, but who knows, maybe this kid is special. He hits it a mile and obviously had all parts of his game last week, maybe he carries that momentum into this week. The competition is more difficult this week, but it's not like a major field. There are a handful of guys to worry about at the top, otherwise the field is similar to last week.

LONGSHOTS

Scott Piercy (66-1)

Piercy has been very consistent at this event the last nine seasons. He's missed the cut just once during the span, has two top-10s and has finished no worse that T32 when he's played on the weekend. Piercy also played well in his most recent start on the PGA Tour, a top-5 at the CJ Cup @ Nine Bridges.

Chesson Hadley (40-1)

Hadley got off to a great start last season, posting top-5s in his first three starts during the fall and while he was unable to repeat that feat this season, he did post a runner-up at the CIMB Classic. He's also posted two top-5s in four starts at this event.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Optimal pick: Tony Finau - Finau doesn't have the high-end finishes here, but he's played well enough (three top-20s) that I think he can make the leap this week. His form is as good as anyone in the field as well. Would you be better served to save Finau? Possibly, but with only a couple big guns in his way this week, this might be the spot.

Buyer beware: Jordan Spieth - It's easy to tell that I'm skeptical about Spieth this week. He's never played this event and is coming off his worst season as a pro. He's going to figure it out, but it likely will take the real offseason to get back on track. He's simply not worth the risk this week.

Last week: Rafa Cabrera Bello (T14) - $129,000; Season - $498,015

This week: Patrick Cantlay - Yes, there will be spots in 2019 where I would prefer to have a guy like Cantlay, but he's the defending champ this week, his form is good and there isn't a mountain of elite players in the field. I hate to burn him before 2019, but this might be the optimal spot for Cantlay.

FANDUEL PICKS

High/Mid/Low: Tony Finau ($12,000)/Chesson Hadley ($9,800)/Dylan Meyer ($7,400)

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: N/A - N/A; Streak - 1

This week: Scott Piercy - Piercy has missed just two cuts in 12 starts at this event and, as noted, just one in his past nine starts here. More important, he's played well on the weekend here, which indicates that he has a really good feel for this course.