This article is part of our PGA Tour Stats Review series.
The PGA Tour moves to Florida this week for the Honda Classic as Rory McIlroy makes his 2015 debut on the PGA Tour. But before we get to that, two interesting things we wanted to pass along:
54-Hole Leads
Jim Furyk has now blown his last nine 54-hole leads. That astounding stat has led to a spirited discussion on social media about 54-hole leads and how realistic our expectations, as fans, are for converting a lead into a win.
Golf Channel's fantastic senior researcher Justin Ray recently delved into the numbers on converting 54-hole leads, and it's a very interesting and recommended read for all stat geeks.
Can Missing the Cut or Taking a Week off Help You Win?
We got an Ask an Expert question last week from a reader named Paul that was really interesting: In the last two years, how many PGA Tour winners did not play the week previous to winning? And, also in the last two years, how many PGA Tour winners missed the cut the week previous to winning?
It's not an official stat kept by the PGA Tour and displayed publicly, so we turned to PGA Tour Headquarters, hoping someone in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., might have an answer in-house. And they did. With our thanks to Joel Schuchmann and Amanda Herrington from the PGA Tour Communications Department, we can tell you that:
In the last three seasons -- 98 PGA Tour events (excluding the 2013-15 Hyundai Tournament of Champions) -- through this
The PGA Tour moves to Florida this week for the Honda Classic as Rory McIlroy makes his 2015 debut on the PGA Tour. But before we get to that, two interesting things we wanted to pass along:
54-Hole Leads
Jim Furyk has now blown his last nine 54-hole leads. That astounding stat has led to a spirited discussion on social media about 54-hole leads and how realistic our expectations, as fans, are for converting a lead into a win.
Golf Channel's fantastic senior researcher Justin Ray recently delved into the numbers on converting 54-hole leads, and it's a very interesting and recommended read for all stat geeks.
Can Missing the Cut or Taking a Week off Help You Win?
We got an Ask an Expert question last week from a reader named Paul that was really interesting: In the last two years, how many PGA Tour winners did not play the week previous to winning? And, also in the last two years, how many PGA Tour winners missed the cut the week previous to winning?
It's not an official stat kept by the PGA Tour and displayed publicly, so we turned to PGA Tour Headquarters, hoping someone in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., might have an answer in-house. And they did. With our thanks to Joel Schuchmann and Amanda Herrington from the PGA Tour Communications Department, we can tell you that:
In the last three seasons -- 98 PGA Tour events (excluding the 2013-15 Hyundai Tournament of Champions) -- through this season's Northern Trust Open, 48 times a player either did not play or missed the cut in the previous start before a victory.
For the 2013 season, seven winners missed the cut the week prior while 12 didn't play, while for 2013-2014 only two missed the cut prior compared to 20 who took the previous week off. And so far this season, six took the previous week off while just one missed the cut (Ben Martin, won the Shriners, MC at the Frys.com Open).
If you're interested in more details or specifics, let me know and I'll be happy to pass those along.
History Lesson
Russell Henley's win at the 2014 Honda Classic counts on this list as he took the previous week off. He won the event in a playoff over Rory McIlroy, Ryan Palmer and Russell Knox. In 2013, Michael Thompson won by two over Geoff Ogilvy, and in 2012 McIlroy beat Tiger Woods and Tom Gillis by two.
Woods isn't here this week, and most of those players we don't recommend. We do recommend Henley, McIlroy and Palmer.
Henley already has two top-10s and three top-25 finishes for the 2014-15 season and is ninth in strokes gained-putting. This is McIlroy's 2015 PGA Tour debut, but he did win already this year in Dubai, has the representation lawsuit that many thought could derail his spring behind him and should have a clear head coming into a venue he likes. First in strokes gained–total, he ranked outside the top 100 in just two main stats last year: driving accuracy and sand save percentage. If he gets those up to snuff this year, watch out.
Palmer is probably not the player some would expect us to list here, but he is extremely consistent, which is exactly what some fantasy players look for. Palmer has racked up two top-10s and four top-25 finishes for the 2014-15 PGA Tour season (including a T2 in Phoenix) thus far and ranks fifth in driving distance, 18th in strokes gained–tee to green, 21st in strokes gained–putting and ninth in strokes gained–total. He's a solid pick.
Who Is Playing
The field also includes Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler, Luke Donald, Jason Dufner, Ernie Els, Harris English, Tony Finau, Sergio Garcia, Billy Horschel, Zach Johnson, Patrick Reed, Patrick Rodgers and Justin Thomas.
We do not recommend Mickelson, who called his putting "pathetic" in his last start and needs to show improvement before becoming a fantasy recommendation. Also not recommended: Garcia, who couldn't hit a fairway down the stretch last week at Riviera and said after the round that he didn't deserve to win because of how poorly he played. Not a strong endorsement.
We do, however, recommend Dustin Johnson, who lost in a playoff last week at the Northern Trust Open and was impressive statistically: first in driving distance, fifth in greens in regulation, first in strokes gained–tee to green and T1 in strokes gained–total.
