Mayakoba Classic Preview: Fowler's the Favorite

The short fall season is nearly at an end and this week the PGA Tour moves to Mexico for the Mayakoba Classic, but many of the big names who played last week were not on the flight this week to Mexico. Although the new schedule has provided ample opportunity for the best players in the game to play during fall, this event does not draw the biggest names.

However, a few names might surprise you. El Camaleon Golf Club has been the course for this event since 2007. As always, one of the keys this week will be determining which players are here to play and which are here to start their offseason in style with a Mexican vacation.

This week: Mayakoba Classic - El Camaleon Golf Club, Playa Del Carmen, Mexico

Last Year: Patton Kizzire shot a final-round 67 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Rickie Fowler.

FAVORITES

Rickie Fowler (8-1)

Fowler was the odds-on favorite entering last week's event and didn't disappoint with a T4. The problem again was Fowler ended up in a good spot after falling out of the mix prior to Sunday's final round. It's a story that's becoming all too common with Fowler. But, the fact remains, he's good enough to win, especially at places like this, where he almost won last year.

Jordan Spieth (12-1)

Spieth's name is driving his second-favorite status this week, because his play sure isn't. Spieth was among the favorites last week and finished T55. Spieth hasn't been able to the right the ship this season and odds are it will take the true offseason to get his game back on track. Spieth is always a threat to play well, but at this price, there's no value.

Tony Finau (14-1)

Finau was among the favorites last week as well, but he failed to live up to the hype. Finau had posted a runner-up in his previous starts, which was the main reason why expectations were high, but he never got it going last week. That said, he's only one start removed from a strong effort, which means he's definitely worth a look this week. Finau has two starts at this event, one of which resulted in a top-10.

MID-TIER PLAYERS

Gary Woodland (20-1)

Woodland might provide the best value of the guys near the top of the odds chart this week. Not only has he shown good form in all three starts this season, but he also finished runner-up at this event last year. In three starts this season, Woodland has a T5, a runner-up and a T10.

Emiliano Grillo (28-1)

It's a little odd that Grillo, a four-year vet on the PGA Tour, decided to play five of the six events during fall, but maybe he's just trying to strike while the iron is hot. Grillo has made the cut in all four starts this fall and posted a T2 at the CIMB Classic. He's also played well here, with two top-10s in two starts at this event.

Luke List (33-1)

List took the opposite approach of Grillo as this will be just his second start of fall. In his first start, at the Safeway Open, he posted a T4. That was about a month ago, however, and that's a long time to hang onto momentum, but he's a month of good swing thoughts running through his mind and that can't hurt. His track record here is all over the place, but he does have one top-10 in three starts.

LONGSHOTS

Abraham Ancer (45-1)

It's not unheard of for guys who break through during one season to carry that momentum through the fall portion of the following season, but it's certainly not commonplace, which makes Ancer's run the last few months pretty impressive. Ancer parlayed a solid finish last season into two more top-5s already this season and is looking to close fall out in style. He's yet to pick up his first PGA Tour win, but it will happen at some point, perhaps this week.

Charles Howell III (45-1)

Howell III may never win again on the PGA Tour, but if he's going to win, it will be at a place like this. Howell III continues to put himself in position to contend, but he often lacks that extra gear to get over the top. It only takes one really good week, though, where everything goes right, and as long as he continues to make cuts, he has a chance. Howell III has three top-10s in his last five starts at this event.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Optimal pick: Rickie Fowler - There are certainly good spots to use Fowler during any given season, but considering his track record at this event and his form coming in, there might not be a more optimal spot. Throw in the strength of the field, which isn't terrible, yet missing many high-end golfers, and this looks like a great spot to use Fowler.

Buyer beware: Jordan Spieth - Spieth was in this spot last week and the warning was justified as Spieth couldn't even crack the top 50. As mentioned earlier, Spieth has been working through something all season and likely will need a true offseason to get back to his previous form that saw him win multiple majors.

Last week: Patrick Cantlay (2) - $756,000; Season - $1,254,015

This week: Abraham Ancer - I've used a good amount of firepower already this fall and after last week's runner-up out of Cantlay, I have a little room to pull back this week. As such, I'll go with Ancer, who I have no problem with burning and has a decent shot at finishing high this week. Ancer is a pretty safe pick with plenty of upside.

FANDUEL PICKS

High/Mid/Low: Rickie Fowler ($12,500)/Abraham Ancer ($10,000)/Patton Kizzire ($8,100)

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: Scott Piercy - (T10); Streak - 2

This week: Gary Woodland - I debated using Woodland as my one-and-done golfer this week, but I decided to go lower down the depth chart in an effort to save some firepower for 2019. In this format, however, you don't need to worry about saving guys as much because there are several events each season without a cut, therefore the number of players you use is reduced significantly. Woodland is 3-for-3 in cuts made here and his form is solid entering this week. He's as safe of a pick as anyone in the field.