This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
WM Phoenix Open
Course: TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course (7,261 yards, par 71)
Purse: $9,200,000
Winner: $1,656,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The WM Phoenix Open is the one event on the schedule that is unlike any other. It is annually the most attended tournament of the year and players have to embrace the chaos to find success. There is no bigger example of stadium golf than the par-3 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. What is a relatively straightforward par-3 is anything but in a completely enclosed stadium with thousands of rowdy fans waiting to go nuts for a good shot or let you know about it if you hit a bad one. That being said, the tournament organizers said they are taking extra measures to make sure things are reined in after several PGA Tour players admitted the fan behavior had crossed a line in recent years. It all came to a breaking point last year on Saturday, by far the most attended day of the tournament, when the tournament had to close the gates to ticket-holders and cut off alcohol sales because of overcrowding and safety concerns. We'll see how the changes the tournament officials make affect things, but it should still be an incredible atmosphere.
While yes the WM Phoenix Open is sitting right in the middle of two Signature Events, we still have a pretty strong field with a number of big names. Leading the way of course is the top ranked player in Scottie Scheffler, who is coming off a solid T9 finish in his return from a hand injury that took place on Christmas. Scheffler won the Phoenix Open in 2022 and 2023 before finishing T3 in his bid for the three-peat last year. Another two-time winner of this event is Hideki Matsuyama, who already has a win under his belt in 2025 back at The Sentry. Matsuyama is second in the FedExCup standings to Sepp Straka, who will also play this week following a failed attempt to convert the 54-hole lead at Pebble Beach in his bid to win in back-to-back starts. Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im and Tom Kim are three other top-25 ranked players looking to end long winless droughts at TPC Scottsdale. Nick Taylor won this event in a playoff over Charley Hoffman last year after he finished solo second in 2023.
This will be the last event to qualify for the Genesis Invitational via the Aon Swing 5, which is comprised of the top FedExCup point earners from the Sony Open, The American Express, the Farmers Insurance Open and the WM Phoenix Open. Sam Stevens and J.J. Spaun are in a pretty comfortable spot, but Andrew Novak, Justin Lower and Lee Hodges are hoping to retain those positions. Charley Hoffman, Kris Ventura, Adam Schenk and Alex Smalley are all right in the mix, but anything can happen with a strong showing at TPC Scottsdale. The Aon Next 10 is already locked in for the Genesis Invitational from places 51-60 in the FedExCup Fall. One other player to watch is Luke Clanton, who was given a sponsors invitation this week. The Florida State junior is creeping up on 26 weeks as the No. 1 ranked amateur, which will give him another PGA Tour University Accelerated point and bring his total to 19. Just a made cut at the Phoenix Open very well could give him the 20 points he needs to earn a PGA Tour card that he could take up after the college golf season ends this year.
Last year's WM Phoenix Open featured plenty of weather early in the event, which really softened the golf course up. This year the weather will be beautiful with no expected precipitation and temperatures that will reach into the mid-70s. Apart from some chilly mornings as is typical in the desert, players will not have any excuses this week. The breezes are also expected to be pretty mild. Nick Taylor and Charley Hoffman's 21-under-par 263 total last year was the lowest score at this event since Phil Mickelson posted 28-under 256 back in 2013, which tied Mark Calcavecchia for the lowest ever at the Phoenix Open (2001). Both Mickelson and Calcavecchia had those record scores in their third and final victory at this event. Maybe Scheffler or Matsuyama can join those two along with Arnold Palmer and Gene Littler as three-time winners of this tournament in historic fashion. It's always a nail-biting finish in this event, as a playoff has been required to decide things six of the last nine years. I wouldn't be surprised to see golf shots being played again after the big game kicks off in New Orleans.
Recent Champions
2024 - Nick Taylor (-21)
2023 - Scottie Scheffler (-19)
2022 - Scottie Scheffler (-16)
2021 - Brooks Koepka (-19)
2020 - Webb Simpson (-17)
2019 - Rickie Fowler (-17)
2018 - Gary Woodland (-18)
2017 - Hideki Matsuyama (-17)
2016 - Hideki Matsuyama (-14)
2015 - Brooks Koepka (-15)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/GIR Percentage
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Total Driving
- SG: Putting/Putts per GIR
- Birdie Average/Par 4 Scoring
Champion's Profile
TPC Scottsdale has typically awarded the more aggressive players. It's a course where we will see a lot of drivers, and due to the elevation we get a lot of really long drives. There also really isn't much rough out there to speak of, so as long as you are keeping it somewhat in play and avoiding the desert areas, you are going to be just fine. From there it is your typical shootout mindset of hitting it close and sinking putts. The guys that did that best last season ended up in the playoff. Nick Taylor ranked first in SG: Putting and T2 in GIR's, while Charley Hoffman was second in SG: Putting and second in SG: Approach. Not far behind in T3 was Sam Burns who led the field in SG: Off-the-Tee and Scottie Scheffler who led the field by a mile in SG: Approach. These greens are the same surfaces that the players faced at The American Express a few weeks ago, so look for those who putted well there to do the same in Scottsdale. Lastly, we also need to look at overall birdie average as well as par 4 scoring. There's a good chance if a player ranks highly in approach and/or putting they probably also make a lot of birdies. While there are three gettable par-5s, it really seems like the players who are able to consistently make birdies on the average-to-long par-4s are the ones around Sunday afternoon in this event.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Scottie Scheffler ($13,400)
I was a little worried about Scheffler's long game given the fact that he was barely a week in to being cleared for full swings before the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. While he didn't have his best driving week, Scheffler was clinical with the irons leading the field in SG: Approach once again. He also gained nearly two strokes for the week on the greens. Scheffler has gone T7-1st-1st-T3 the last four years in Scottsdale and is well worth the massive price tag.
Justin Thomas ($12,100)
If it's not going to be Scheffler, Thomas should be your pivot. He has gained strokes on approach in his last nine starts and has an awesome record at TPC Scottsdale. While Thomas has never won here, he has not finished worse than T17 in his last seven starts, including a trio of top-five finishes. Thomas also had one of his best putting performances in the last few years at The AmEx on his way to a second place finish on what are very similar surfaces to this course.
Sepp Straka ($10,900)
Straka has been an approach demon of late. He has gained at least 1.05 strokes on approach per round over his last seven starts. Straka has also gained strokes off the tee in all of those same events. The Austrian putted extremely well on these same type of greens in Palm Springs en route to a victory which was his fourth top-15 in his last five starts. Straka doesn't have a great history in Scottsdale, but he is playing the best golf of his career.
The Middle Tier
Nick Taylor ($9,600)
Taylor has historically been a pretty inconsistent ball striker throughout his career, but he is in the mix of the best approach play stretch in his life. The Canadian has gained over 15 strokes on approach over his last 10 measured rounds. Taylor also loves putting on these style greens ranking first in SG: Putting at TPC Scottsdale last year and fourth in 2023. He was also second in SG: Putting at PGA West a few weeks ago.
Min Woo Lee ($9,500)
Lee is a guy who should absolutely feed off these crowds and his aggressive style of play could lead to a lot of birdies. The Aussie is one of the best drivers on Tour, as he ranked fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee last season. Lee has also really improved his iron play and has now gained strokes on approach in six of his last seven tournaments that had strokes gained data. He played a lot around the world in the fall and has finished T32 or better in all nine starts since the TOUR Championship.
Sam Stevens ($9,100)
Stevens backed up his runner-up at Torrey Pines with a solid T17 finish at Pebble Beach. It was the third straight event in which he has gained strokes on the greens and the sixth straight time he gained strokes on approach. Stevens has not missed a cut over his last 11 starts and is one of the longest hitters in the field. He went T28 in his TPC Scottsdale debut a year ago.
The Long Shots
Lee Hodges ($8,700)
The end result was a T33 at Pebble Beach for Hodges, but he was hovering right around the top-10 most of the week before he dumped two in the water and made a 9 on the par-5 18th on Sunday. Hodges has been playing really good golf with five finishes of T16 or better over his previous seven starts. The 29-year-old has gained strokes on approach in eight of his last nine starts, and currently ranks 10th in SG: Putting this season.
Nicolai Hojgaard ($8,600)
At this time last year everyone thought the same thing about Nicolai Hojgaard that they now do about Rasmus, who checks in at $10,500. Nicolai's rookie year on the PGA Tour was not easy, but he's got that same kind of talent his brother is showing now. This is a great opportunity to buy low as he makes his season debut. Hojgaard is a really strong ball striker who has gained strokes on the greens in four of his last six starts. He has five top-25 finishes over that stretch.
Mac Meissner ($8,400)
Meissner is one of the best iron players in this price range. This season he already ranks 15th in SG: Approach after he was top-35 in SG: Approach, GIR percentage and proximity last season. While Meissner hasn't had a high-end finish in awhile, he's still been pretty reliable making the cut in 11-of-12 starts. The 25-year-old has an underrated short game and when he putts well he finishes top-20.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
I'm a big fan of the $9K and $8K ranges, as both of them are very deep with a lot of potential options to fit this course well. I do not think the $7K range is good at all, so I will likely lean towards a more balanced build with just one $11K+ player. TPC Scottsdale is typically one of the stickiest in terms of course history, so that's a good spot to lean on. That being said, most of the players who put up consistent results here are quality ball strikers. After not having to sweat the cut last week, it's going to take two good scores to make the weekend in Scottsdale given the expected good conditions.
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