This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches
Course: PGA National Champion Course (7,167 yards, par 71)
Purse: $9,200,000
Winner: $1,656,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches is the first of a four-event Florida Swing that includes a signature event in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and the PGA Tour's flagship event in THE PLAYERS Championship. The Florida Swing typically gives players some of the biggest tests they will face all season with lots of water in play, thick rough and gusty winds to deal with. That will be the name of the game at PGA National this week highlighted by when players take on one of the most intimidating three-hole stretches in golf, "The Bear Trap" on holes 15-17.
Most of the top players are taking another week off, but this field is still much stronger than what we saw a week ago at the Mexico Open. There will be 16 of the top 50 in the OWGR teeing it up in Palm Beach Gardens, led by World No. 17 and 2014 Cognizant Classic winner Russell Henley. Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka and Sungjae Im are three other top 25 players who have a strong history at this event. Jordan Spieth will be making his tournament debut as he hopes to find some more form with a number of big events upcoming.
As always the cutoff for a signature event brings the Aon Next 10 and Aon Swing 5 into focus. After the Next 10 reverted back to points from the fall, the Arnold Palmer Invitational will be the first to use the top 10 not previously exempt golfers in the current FedExCup Standings. Daniel Berger and Andrew Novak hold the last two spots there after their strong starts to 2025. The Swing 5 will award spots in the field at Bay Hill to the top 5 point earners from the Mexico Open and Cognizant Classic who were not otherwise exempt. Aldrich Potgieter, Isaiah Salinda, Ben Griffin, Joel Dahmen and Nicolai Hojgaard hold those spots after a strong showing at Vidanta, but a lot will change depending on how things go in Palm Beach.
PGA National will host this event for the 19th straight season and it will be ready to show its teeth again. 11 previous times it has yielded a winning score in single digits under-par. That being said, the last two years have seen the lowest winning scores in event history at PGA National with Chris Kirk at 14-under in 2023 and Austin Eckroat at 17-under last year. The forecast this week calls for a lot of sunshine and temperatures to top out around 80 degrees. It also looks like the winds will be unusually mild for what the players normally have to deal with at this tournament. Look for good scores again in 2025.
Recent Champions
2024 - Austin Eckroat (-17)
2023 - Chris Kirk (-14)
2022 - Sepp Straka (-10)
2021 - Matt Jones (-12)
2020 - Sungjae Im (-6)
2019 - Keith Mitchell (-9)
2018 - Justin Thomas (-8)
2017 - Rickie Fowler (-12)
2016 - Adam Scott (-9)
2015 - Padraig Harrington (-6)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/GIR Percentage
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy
- SG: Putting/Putts per GIR
- Par-3 Scoring/Proximity 125-150 and 150-175 yards
Champion's Profile
PGA National is all about precision. Players could overpower the Vidanta last week, but that will not be the case here. There are a lot of doglegs and players will have a lot of options as far as club selection off the tee. It's not a long course at all, but you need to be putting the ball in the fairway to give yourself the best chance to attack on approach. Iron play will probably be the most important part of the game to have dialed in, especially on this brutally tough set of par-3s at PGA National. Eckroat led the field in GIR and was fifth in SG: Approach en route to victory last year. We'll see a number of approaches in the 125-150 and 150-175 yard bucket at this course, so those would be two areas to key in on as well. You would normally think a course this tough would lead to a lot of focus on short game, but the top three finishers last year in Eckroat, Erik van Rooyen and Min Woo Lee all finished outside the top-45 in scrambling. Interestingly enough, they were the top three ranked players in putts per GIR. With ideal conditions and softer than usual greens expected this week, we'll see a lot more birdie putts on these large greens.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Shane Lowry ($11,800)
PGA National is the perfect type of course for Lowry because it demands precision ball striking. That's something that you know he will deliver week in and week out. Lowry is one of the most accurate drivers out there and is leading the PGA Tour this season in proximity. Throw out too off showings at Torrey Pines in the last month, and Lowry hasn't finished outside the top-15 since the FedEx St. Jude last August. His win at this course is coming after having gone 2nd-T5-T4 the last three years.
Sepp Straka ($11,600)
Straka just flat out had a bad showing last time out at the Genesis, but five top-15s in six starts before that makes me forget about it quickly. He also had a stretch of eight straight tournaments in which he gained at least one stroke per round on approach. Much like Lowry, Straka is another very accurate driver who excels on approach. The Austrian is 13th in SG: Approach, sixth in GIR percentage, fifth in proximity and 19th in par-3 scoring this season. Straka won here back in 2022 and followed it up with a T5 in his title defense.
Russell Henley ($11,500)
If there was ever a player that just screamed precise ball striker, Henley would probably be the guy. He has been among the leaders the last several seasons in driving accuracy and SG: Approach. Henley has also become a consistent threat with the putter having gained strokes on the greens in 18 of his last 20 starts. When you have both those things working, it's really no surprise he has missed just one cut since the start of 2024. Henley has plenty of experience at PGA National with a win among six top-25s in 10 career starts.
The Middle Tier
Alex Smalley ($9,900)
After a top-10 finish at the Mexico Open, Smalley has now finished T21or better in four of his last five starts. His ball-striking numbers have been very impressive, as he sits third in SG: Tee-to-Green this season. The other thing that has flashed lately has been the putter, as he has gained strokes on the greens in five of his last six starts. All the stars seem to be aligning for Smalley.
Andrew Novak ($9,700)
Novak has gained a lot of confidence of late with a third-place showing at the Farmers followed by a pair of T13s in Signature Events. His putting has stood out gaining at least a full shot per round on the greens in three of his last four events. Novak also ranks 12th in proximity from 125-150 yards and leads the PGA Tour in proximity from 150-175 yards, two ranges that should see a lot of work this week. This will be his fifth time teeing it up at PGA National and he'll have a good chance to better his career-best finish here of T9 last year.
Lee Hodges ($8,900)
Hodges might be my favorite play of the week. His ball striking dating back to the fall has been excellent gaining strokes on approach in eight of his last ten and off the tee in seven of nine starts. The 29-year-old has also made huge strides with the putter and ranks ninth in SG: Putting this season. Hodges hasn't missed a cut in his last seven starts with four top-20 finishes mixed in there. He also has finished top-15 at PGA National two of the last three years.
The Long Shots
Ryan Gerard ($8,700)
Gerard was a consistent presence near the top of the leaderboard last season on the Korn Ferry Tour, and he's brought that consistent play into 2025 on the PGA Tour, making the cut in all four starts -- including a pair of top-20s the last two times he teed it up. Gerard has gained strokes on approach and with the putter in all four of those events as well. He has one prior start at PGA National, which was a solo fourth-place showing in 2023.
Adam Schenk ($8,400)
Schenk might not be the ideal course fit, but it's hard for me to argue with the numbers at this price. He has finished top-25 in three of his last four starts, and ranks top-25 this season in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Putting and scrambling. Schenk has made seven prior starts at PGA National and has gained strokes on these greens six times. A little shorter rough this year might also allow him to feel more confident swinging away.
Antoine Rozner ($8,000)
PGA National has been a place that a lot of international players have found success and Rozner fits the bill to possibly be next in line. He is an elite iron player who has gained strokes on approach in eight of his last nine measured starts. As a full-time DP World Tour member in 2024 he was second in SG: Approach and 14th in GIR percentage. Rozner finished fourth at the Qatar Masters earlier this month, which was his fourth top-six finish in his last eight starts worldwide.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
The top PGA Tour players are free to pick their schedules as they see fit, and most of the guys near the top of the board have all consistently come back year after year to play the Cognizant Classic because it's one of the venues that really fits their skillset. I think that really opens things up a lot and I would expect a more balanced ownership among all the players in the $11K range. A course like PGA National is always really scary from a DFS perspective because it just takes one slightly off shot to ruin your chances. Doubles and others are not hard to make around this place because of all the water, and an early one by one of your six golfers can put making the weekend as a tall task even if they are playing solid golf. I think you just have to lean on the consistent ball strikers this week and hope they are able to roll in a decent amount on the greens.
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