This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
THE RSM CLASSIC
Purse: $6M
Winner's Share: $1.08M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: St. Simons Island, Ga.
Courses: Seaside and Plantation, Sea Island GC
Yardage: 7,005/7,058
Par: 70/72
2015 champion: Kevin Kisner
Tournament Preview
Welcome to the final PGA Tour event of calendar 2016. From the beginning of January until now, there has been only one dark week, and that came during the playoffs in September. This will be the seventh edition of the RSM-nee-McGladrey Classic and one of the biggest considerations for gamers is the so-called Sea Island Mafia. Davis Love III is the tournament host and would-be Godfather to the nearly two dozen golfers with Sea Island connections; they are residents or they train at the Sea Island Golf Performance Center, or both. To name just a few: Matt Kuchar, Zach Johnson, Stewart Cink, Billy Horschel, Harris English, and Charles Howell III. Presumably, those golfers have an advantage at the Seaside and Plantation courses (but they won't all do well, so don't get sucked in). Kuchar heads a field that includes just three of the top-30 in the OWGR, along with Brandt Snedeker and Kevin Chappell. The Plantation course was added last year, allowing the field to increase from 132 to 156, otherwise an impossibility during Standard Time. The golfers will play Seaside and Plantation once each on Thursday and Friday, then only tiny Seaside on the weekend. Not only is the course short, it offers some of the widest fairways golfers will see all year, leaving the wind as the primary defense at the oceanside track. Last year, both courses were among the sixth easiest in fairways hit and greens in regulation (GIR), according to PGATour.com. Weather-wise, highs will be in the 70s with little chance of rain. The all-important wind is forecast to be in the single digits the first two days before strengthening on the weekend, to nearly 20 mph on Sunday.
Key Stats to Winning at Sea Island
• Greens in regulation
• Proximity to the hole
• Scrambling
• Par 4 Birdie or better percentage (P4BOB)
• Putting average (putts per GIR)
Past Champions
2015 - Kevin Kisner
2014 - Robert Streb
2013 - Chris Kirk
2012 - Tommy Gainey
2011 - Ben Crane
2010 - Heath Slocum
Champion's Profile
Driving distance is not important. Accuracy off the tee isn't especially important. This week, it's really a challenge finding the parts of the golf game integral to doing well here. While there are always multiple ways to win a tournament, there usually are common indicators. But the champions here have been all over the map. Kisner is a bit of an outlier, since he ran away to win by six strokes and did virtually everything well (T17 driving accuracy, T9 GIR, second in proximity to the hole, third in scrambling, fourth in strokes gained putting and first in putting from beyond 10 feet). Looking at other recent winners and contenders illustrates that GIR, proximity, scrambling and SGP are all paths to success. On seaside, there are only two par-5s, but there are nine par-4s of 400-450 yards (and another is 452). Every past winner, but Ben Crane, has ties to either Georgia or the Southeast, as do a lot of other golfers who contended.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Chris Kirk - $11,300 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 15-1)
We're usually not a fan of taking the priciest golfer on the DraftKings board unless he's named McIlroy, Spieth, etc. But Kirk checks all the boxes this week: He was the winner in 2013, then followed it up with a T4 in 2014 and T18 last year. He's currently playing well, tied for the tour lead with three top-10s on the young season. He's in the top-20 statistically in P4BOB, proximity, SGP and putting average.
Kevin Chappell - $10,200 (20-1)
Chappell has improved every year he's played here: From T43 to T32 to T8 to solo second last year (if you improve from solo second ...). He's played only twice this season, at both of the Asian tour stops last month.
Bill Haas - $9,800 (25-1)
Haas is top-25 in P4BOB, proximity and scrambling. He's got top-20s in his two fall starts, including T4 at the WGC-HSBC. Haas has managed only a T33 and T22 the past two years here, though he was runner-up in 2010. His price may be a bit high, but it's surely more favorable to us than Matt Kuchar's $11,200 or Brandt Snedeker's $10,900.
Luke List - $9,400 (40-1)
Luke List top-tier golfer? Luke List at $9,400? That's what a T7-T15-T2 in the past three weeks will do. List is still the same big hitter he's always been, but has honed in on other parts of this game. Has easier fields and softer tracks helped him, too? Sure. And we have a similar set up this week. When the fields get tougher in 2017, we likely will recalibrate List, who missed the cut here last year but clearly he was a different golfer then.
Tier 2 Values
Charles Howell III - $9,200 (30-1)
The Georgian was T9 here last year, the fifth time in the six editions of the tournament he has made the cut. Mirroring List, Howell was T7 last week and T15 the week before, so form is not an issue. Most of his stats are not great, but he's 18th in GIR.
Lucas Glover - $8,900 (30-1)
The South Carolinian is another golfer taking advantage of the fall conditions, but last we checked, it's still the fall. Glover was ninth here last year. He was third two weeks ago when he, admittedly, gagged away the Shriners (don't try that at home), and T5 the week before. Glover stands fifth in strokes gained total and in GIR. His putting is an issue.
Cody Gribble - $8,600 (50-1)
Gribble is the lone 2016 fall winner in the field. After he won the Sanderson, he slipped to T65 at the Shriners. But to us, simply making the cut after your first tour win was impressive -- and Gribble followed that up with a T15 last week in Mexico. Clearly, he remains focused and grounded. Grribble is second in SGP and 25th in scrambling. This is his RSM debut.
Jamie Lovemark - $8,000 (60-1)
Lovemark was T9 here last year, his RSM debut. This season, he's got three top-40 cashes in four starts. The big hitter has been improving other facets of his game, standing top-50 in SGP and GIR. Most impressively, Lovemark is 17th in scrambling.
Tier 3 Values
Ryan Blaum - $7,900 (60-1)
As with List, we hope we are not going to the well once too often. But the Web.com grad (and Florida native and Duke alum) has made four straight cuts with two top-25s, including a T15 alongside Gribble last week. Blaum is 20th in SGP and 23rd in strokes gained around the green. This is his RSM debut.
Whee Kim - $7,400 (80-1)
No, South Korea is not considered part of the South. But Kim does have top-15s in his two fall starts. He's eighth in SGP, 12th in strokes gained total, 21st in proximity and 28th in scrambling. Kim played the RSM once before, missing the cut two years ago.
Wesley Bryan - $7,100 (80-1)
The Web.com star has not taken the PGA Tour by storm, as many predicted, but he has made all three cuts this season, albeit with zero top-25s. The South Carolina native is 16th in strokes gained around the green and 32nd in scrambling. He's 90th in SGP, but that might not hurt him too much this week.
Kyle Stanley - $6,800 (80-1)
Stanley is a bit of a hunch, with some numbers to back it up. He missed the cut last week in Mexico but was top-25 in his two other fall starts, including T7 at the Shriners. He's 3-for-3 in RSM cuts, with a T33 last year. Stanley is eighth in SGT2G, 33rd in GIR, fifth in proximity and 11th in scrambling. Putting? Um, don't ask.
Long-Shot Values
Seamus Power - $6,600 (100-1)
The Web.com grad has made his past three cuts, with T28 last week at the OHL Classic. He had never so much as played a PGA Tour event before this year, so making three of your first four cuts surely is impressive.
Chad Campbell - $6,300 (100-1)
Campbell has made four straight cuts this season and four straight at the RSM, including T9 last year and T7 in 2012.
Xander Schauffele - $6,200 (Field, 7-2)
The Web.com grad is 4-for-4 in cuts this season, with a T5 at the Sanderson. He happens to be a little guy who hits it far, but this week we're looking at 43rd in strokes gained total, 50th in GIR, 64th in SGP. Those are good numbers for a $6,200 golfer.
Ken Duke - $5,900 (Field, 7-4)
The veteran for some reason is on an even-year schedule at the RSM: T4 in 2014, T20 in 2012 and T15 in 2010. This season, he's made 2-of-3 cuts while ranking 15th in proximity.
