This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
As expected, there were some bumps in the road last week while attempting to make a massive overhaul to this preview. We are close, but you might see some tweaks in the coming weeks. All of this is an effort to maximize the value in this space, so we are going to take our time and make sure we get it right.
With that in mind, we are dumping the color scale for each golfer. You can generally get a feel for if I like or dislike each player listed as a one-and-done option for a given week within the writeup anyway. That's what we are removing from the article, but that's not the only change. We are adding a section specifically for one-and-done formats. It's not an expansive section, but there'll be plenty of value as I'll list the optimal pick each week as well as the high-profile golfer to be wary of – specifically for that format.
I know what you are thinking, but I already make a one-and-done pick each week. True, but it's not always the optimal pick. Early in the season, my pick likely will be the optimal pick, but as I burn through players, I'll often not have the option to take the optimal pick myself. Most weeks, particularly as we get deeper into the season, you'll get opinions on three golfers each week from a one-and-done perspective.
With any luck, we'll have the format ironed out within the next couple weeks. Until then,
As expected, there were some bumps in the road last week while attempting to make a massive overhaul to this preview. We are close, but you might see some tweaks in the coming weeks. All of this is an effort to maximize the value in this space, so we are going to take our time and make sure we get it right.
With that in mind, we are dumping the color scale for each golfer. You can generally get a feel for if I like or dislike each player listed as a one-and-done option for a given week within the writeup anyway. That's what we are removing from the article, but that's not the only change. We are adding a section specifically for one-and-done formats. It's not an expansive section, but there'll be plenty of value as I'll list the optimal pick each week as well as the high-profile golfer to be wary of – specifically for that format.
I know what you are thinking, but I already make a one-and-done pick each week. True, but it's not always the optimal pick. Early in the season, my pick likely will be the optimal pick, but as I burn through players, I'll often not have the option to take the optimal pick myself. Most weeks, particularly as we get deeper into the season, you'll get opinions on three golfers each week from a one-and-done perspective.
With any luck, we'll have the format ironed out within the next couple weeks. Until then, feel free to throw out suggestions for anything you think might be an interesting addition. Quick reminder: the favorites section are simply the favorites. I'll give my opinion on the top-3 favorites each week, good or bad. The two sections that follow are the golfers I like from those with middle of the road odds and higher odds.
This week: CIMB Classic - TPC Kuala Lumpur Golf & Country Club, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Last Year: Pat Perez shot a final-round 69 on his way to a four-stroke victory over Keegan Bradley.
FAVORITES
Justin Thomas (5-1)
Really the only top-tier player in the field this week is the clear favorite, and for good reason. Set aside that he's the alpha dog this week and consider that he's won this event in two of his three starts. Form is always tough to judge after a couple weeks away from a standard four-round format, but Thomas played pretty well in France two weeks ago and as long as he's in decent form, he's the play this week.
Billy Horschel (14-1)
Horschel was in top form a few weeks ago when he nearly won the Tour Championship, but again, it's tough to know what a couple weeks off will do to a golfer. His track record here leaves a bit to be desired as well as he's only played here twice and has yet to earn a top-10. Horschel's is a little overvalued as the second-biggest favorite this week.
Ryan Moore (16-1)
Moore has a nice combination of good form and a solid track record at this event. He didn't have a great 2017-18 season, but he started this season on a high note as he lost in a playoff to Kevin Tway last week. It's about the only time a loss is a good thing, however, as a runner-up showing on the PGA Tour pays nicely. As for the track record, like Thomas, Moore has also won this event twice.
MID-TIER GOLFERS
Keegan Bradley (25-1)
Bradley is only about a month removed from a huge win at the BMW Championship. He wasn't able to carry that momentum into the Tour Championship, but who can blame him, it was a long time in between wins. He'll look to get back on track this week at a place where he's had plenty of success with a runner-up last year and three top-10s total in four starts.
Brandt Snedeker (25-1)
Snedeker feels like a high-risk/high-reward guy this week. The numbers are all good. He doesn't have the track record here, but his form has been solid the last two months. The trouble is the part that you can't see on paper. Snedeker should have won last week and didn't. Will that have a lingering effect this week? The opening round will tell the tale of Snedeker.
Cameron Smith (33-1)
Speaking of guys who have played well the last couple months. Smith was terrible during a large portion of summer, but he really turned it around as the season neared an end. Smith has played well all over the world, and there's little doubt that a trip to Malaysia won't throw him off his game. Smith has two top-5s at this event in just three starts.
LONGSHOTS
Kiradech Aphibarnrat (80-1)
As a native of Thailand, it's a little strange that Aphibarnrat hasn't played this event more often in his career, but he has made a few appearances. In his only start on this course, Aphibarnrat finished with a T3 and while his form wasn't great at the end of the PGA Tour season, we haven't seen him in two months, and a lot can change in two months.
Austin Cook (80-1)
Cook's play declined as the season wore on, but as a whole, it was a very strong season. His prospects look good for this season as well, as mentioned in the draft kit for this season. Cook is a first-timer at this event, but that was the case often last season and it rarely affected him. He also played well during the fall portion of the season last year.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Optimal pick: Justin Thomas – All things equal, Thomas is an easy call this week. I realized last season that the pool of high-quality players is so deep now that you have take the best players when they have the best chance to win, not wait for a major. Sure, you want some firepower at a major, but does Thomas have a better chance of winning this week or at the U.S. Open next June?
Buyer beware: Billy Horschel – As mentioned, Horschel does not have a great track record at this event and you never know what time and 10,000 miles can do to momentum. As opposed to JT, there will definitely be better times to use Horschel during the 2019 portion of the season.
Last week: Martin Laird (T46) - $17,115; Season - $17,115
This week: Justin Thomas – I guess I have to put my money where my mouth is with JT. It's going to hurt not having him later in the schedule, but he's going against a small field, with no superstars in sight and has already won here twice. Don't overthink this one, just pull the trigger.
FANDUEL PICKS
High/Mid/Low: Justin Thomas ($13,000)/Cameron Smith ($9,700)/Austin Cook ($8,100)
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: Martin Laird (T46); Streak - 1
This week: no cut
