This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
Wyndham Championship Betting Preview
The Wyndham Championship marks the final regular-season event of the 2020-21 season, and it's a huge week for many players on Tour, as golfers near the top 125 bubble look to not only secure a spot in the FedEx Cup Playoffs but also their Tour card for next season.
Although most of the marquee players are inactive as they look ahead to the next three weeks, there are still three of the top 20 players in the Official World Golf Ranking in this week's field, one that is headlined by world No. 7 Louis Oosthuizen and the betting favorite, Webb Simpson. Last year, Jim Herman was a shocking winner at 500-1 odds, closing with rounds of 61-63 to win by one stroke over Billy Horschel.
Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina is this week's host, and the shorter hitters in the field will be delighted to see a course that plays around 7,100 yards and puts a premium on hitting fairways. A par-70 track, both of Sedgefield's par-5s play shorter than the Tour average and should be reachable in two for the entire field. Iron play will be a key factor this week, with each of the last five winners ranking top-4 in Strokes Gained: Approach. Scrambling also tends to be less of a factor here, with players able to hit greens at high percentages and the winning score topping 20-under-par every year since 2016.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 1:00 PM ET Wednesday.
Bobbing for Birdies
The following five golfers, with a minimum of two appearances, have averaged the most birdies per round at Sedgefield Country Club since 2016:
- Si Woo Kim: 5.5
- Kevin Na: 5.5
- Webb Simpson: 5.4
- Ryan Armour: 5.2
- Rafa Cabrera Bello: 5.2
Kim and Na share the top spot on the list, and Kim -- the 2016 champion -- has more recent experience at the course with Na having last played here in 2017. Kim is one of the most difficult players to unravel on a weekly basis, as although he has notched three top-10s this year, he has withdrawn from the same number of tournaments. Nonetheless, he's shown the ability to make birdies in bunches on this track, and at 40-1 odds to win he's an attractive, albeit a risky, option. A golfer further down the betting board but who shows up on this list is the veteran Armour, who has recorded four straight top-25 finishes at Sedgefield, including a pair of top-10s. He'd certainly be a longshot winner at 100-1, but it's not out of the question, especially when you throw in the three top-10s he has recorded this summer.
Approach is Key
These players have gained the most strokes on approach, on a per-round basis, over their last five tournaments:
- Hideki Matsuyama: 1.32
- Bo Hoag: 1.14
- Sam Burns: 0.97
- Seamus Power: 0.90
- Chez Reavie: 0.82
It will be interesting to see how Matsuyama responds following consecutive weeks of heartbreak -- he narrowly missed a birdie putt on the 72nd Olympic hole and subsequently failed to medal in his home country, and then lipped out a birdie putt on the first playoff hole last week and ultimately settled for second. Regardless, Matsuyama's iron play is certainly in elite form, and with a best finish here of T3, he's a prime choice as the second favorite. Coming into the event a bit fresher is Power, who took the last two weeks off after securing his first PGA Tour title at the alternate-event Barbasol Championship in his last start. It has been of a stellar stretch of golf for the Irishman, who has recorded six straight top-20 finishes.
Outright Picks
Sungjae Im (30-1)
Im's two appearances at the Wyndham Championship both netted top-10 finishes, and he's shown the ability to go low here, posting a 62 in his first-ever round at the event. His biggest deficiency this year has been around the greens, but that shouldn't be much of a factor this week. Im has shown signs of rounding back into form, making five straight cuts and finishing fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green at the Rocket Mortgage last month.
Matthew Wolff (45-1)
On paper this doesn't appear to be the best course fit for Wolff, but it's hard to pass up someone with his upside in a below-average field. He's shown flashes of his previous form, having played well at the U.S. Open and firing an opening-round 64 last week. Wolff recorded a top-20 in his only appearance at this event in 2019.
Chez Reavie (80-1)
A longshot winner is certainly possible this week, and I'll look towards Reavie, who missed only one cut over his last eight starts and notched three top-20s over that span. He's a great fit for this course as an accurate driver who ranks 22nd in SG: Approach this season. Sedgefield CC rates similarly to TPC River Highlands, a course that Reavie won at in 2019.
Top-10 Wagers
Sebastian Munoz (5-1)
Variance has been the name of the game for Munoz this year. In his last eight starts he has four missed cuts but also has three top-5s. Golfers will need to make plenty of birdies to be in contention this week, and Munoz fares well there, ranking 36th in that category this season. I like the value here given the recent results and the fact Munoz is gaining strokes both off the tee and on approach.
Brendon Todd (6-1)
Todd has had a disappointing 2020-21 campaign and is coming off three consecutive missed cuts, but that's created some value on him. This will be one of the weakest fields he has been a part of all year, and he notched a top-10 at Colonial seven starts ago. Todd's strengths -- driving accuracy and putting -- will come in handy at Sedgefield.
Kyle Stanley (11-1)
Stanley has a pair of top-15s over his last four appearances at the Wyndham and has been solid in the ball-striking department this season, so he is a pretty easy pick at this price tag. He won't face much pressure this week, as he's locked inside the top 125 regardless of his result. Hopefully that helps him sink some putts, as he's ranked a lowly 199th out of 205 golfers in SG: Putting.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Brian Harman (-115) over Jason Kokrak
Harman is a favorite of mine in head-to-head bets because of his weekly consistency -- he has missed only two cuts this season and finished top-20 in nine of his last 12 starts. Kokrak is coming off a tough week in which he lost strokes both off the tee and on approach, and his distance advantage will be somewhat negated on a shorter course.
Russell Henley (-120) over Will Zalatoris
Henley posted a top-10 at this event last year and recorded a top-20 in each of his last three starts stateside. Currently fourth on Tour this season in SG: Approach, he's a more-reliable option than Zalatoris, who has had some sporadic results since his runner-up finish at The Masters. I'll take the guy with more course experience that's less wild off the tee -- and also one that does not need to win to secure a playoff spot.
