2025 WM Phoenix Open Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Published on February 5, 2025

WM Phoenix Open Betting Preview

The PGA Tour heads to Arizona for this week's WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale, the most attended event in all of golf. Often dubbed as 'The Greatest Show on Grass' and 'The People's Open,' golfers will have to embrace the unique nature of the rowdy fans. Scottie Scheffler headlines a strong field for a non-signature event as the overwhelming favorite at just under 3-1 odds as one of 12 players in the top-25 of the OWGR. Last year, longshot Nick Taylor (120-1 odds) outdueled Charley Hoffman with a birdie on the second playoff hole for his fifth Tour victory.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 2:00 PM ET Wednesday

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Course Overview

Par 71, 7,261 yards

These are the average rankings of the event champions since 2020.

SG: Off-the-Tee: 18.6
SG: Approach: 13.6
SG: Around-the-Green: 23.0
SG: Putting: 9.2
SG: Tee-to-Green: 4.8
Driving Distance: 23.4
Driving Accuracy: 22.8

The closing six-hole stretch is one of my favorites on Tour and is set up to create a lot of excitement. The 13th and 15th holes are reachable in two par-5s, then you have the crowd of the par-3 16th Stadium Hole to test the nerves, followed by the driveable par-4 17th hole that can set up eagle or a dropped shot with the water in play. In looking at the metrics above, SG: Tee-to-Green stands out as the key statistic, with the winner ranking first or second in the category in three of the last five years. Off the tee, players are faced with moderately wide fairways that are surrounded by minimal rough, with water coming into play often on the back-nine. There aren't a lot of short holes on the course, so expect players to pull driver most of the time. In addition to strong tee to green players, I'll look to target players that hit their irons well from 150-200 yards as a lot of approach shots will come in this range.

Scottsdale Superstars

The following players have the lowest scoring average at TPC Scottsdale over the last five years.

There aren't many courses Scheffler doesn't like, but he seems to especially know his was way around this venue. After missing the cut in his debut, he's posted four consecutive top-10s highlighted by wins in 2022 and 2023. He was never a factor to win at Pebble last week in his season debut but did lead the field in SG: Approach in posting yet another top-10 finish. After finishing runner-up two years ago to Scheffler, Taylor got revenge last year and with his win at Waialae last month, the veteran has now won in three consecutive years. His success at the event has been largely tied to a hot putter, where he's ranked fourth and first the last two years. Surprisingly, the oddsmakers are putting out a pretty tempting 60-1 line on him that I wouldn't blame anyone for taking.

Flushers Only

These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds.

It's the same two players topping this list as well so it's no surprise that Scheffler and Thomas are the top-two betting favorites. Thomas has been one of the most consistent players at the event, teeing-it-up all 10 years he's been a professional with eight top-10s. He's still looking for his first win here, and his strong tee to green form as of late should give him a strong opportunity to do just that. Meanwhile, Matsuyama also has a strong track record here as a two-time champion with five top-10s. He's cooled off slightly after starting the year off with a victory, largely due to a couple of mediocre putting weeks. He currently sits 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green on the season and is the third betting choice at 16-1 odds.

WM Phoenix Open Bets: Outright Picks

Sahith Theegala (40-1)

As evidenced by the course history stats above, there aren't many golfers that play better at this event than Theegala. He nearly won in his debut and then posted four rounds in the 60s last year to finish solo fifth. Great value.

Luke Clanton (60-1)

I'll continue taking Clanton at these long odds as I don't think we're going to see him at this price much longer. The amateur was a solid T15 at Torrey Pines two weeks ago and has a pair of shared runner-ups in his brief time on Tour.

Andrew Novak (75-1)

Novak started last year with three consecutive missed cuts and then came to life in Phoenix, where he was one-shot back through 54 holes before finishing T8. Now he's coming off a third at Torrey and a T13 at Pebble. Sign me up at this rate.

WM Phoenix Open Bets: Top-10 Wagers

Harry Hall (11-2)

Hall posted four under-par rounds last week but never truly got it going in finishing T58. Overall, he's been trending in the right direction with three top-25s to start the year prior to last week. He was a respectable T41 here last year and is playing much better golf this time around.

Daniel Berger (7-1)

Berger has a solid track record at TPC Scottsdale, where he finished T11 or better in four of his first six appearances. After a slow start in his return from injury last year, Berger played well in the fall, most notably finishing one shot back in Sea Island.

Rico Hoey (11-1)

Hoey's an excellent ball-striker compared to his odds, as he led the Tour in total driving last year and was ninth in SG: Off-the-Tee. He's posted four top-10s since last June. Hoey is a streaky putter capable of getting into the mix if he finds good form on the greens.

WM Phoenix Open Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Rasmus Hojgaard (+100) over Corey Conners

Hojgaard made his first start as a PGA Tour member at Pebble Beach last week and ranked a solid 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green to finish T22. The long-hitting 23-year-old is a strong ball-striker that should be a factor often this year. Conners on the other hand isn't jumping off the page at me this week. He's gone MC and then T65 last week and doesn't have overwhelming results at the event with a best finish of T17 across five apperances.

J.T. Poston (-115) over J.J. Spaun

I'll side with Poston in this head-to-head as the more accurate driver with the better short game. Surprisingly, Poston has lost strokes putting in all four of his tournaments this year despite that historically being a strength. Although he's had a solid start to the year, Spaun has missed the cut here the last two years and will be playing for a fifth consecutive week.

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