This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
Valero Texas Open Betting Preview
The golf action stays in Texas for one more week as the PGA Tour heads west to San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio. The tune-up for next week's Masters Tournament features a similar field strength wise to last week, headlined by World No. 5 and tournament favorite Ludvig Aberg (12-1) as one of eight top-25 players in the OWGR teeing-it-up. A full-field event with a 36-hole cut, the winner will get the last invite to Augusta National assuming they aren't already qualified. Last year, Akshay Bhatia (55-1 odds) fended off a charge from Denny McCarthy and won on the first playoff hole for his second Tour victory.
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Course Overview
Par 72, 7,438 yards
These are the average rankings of the Valero Texas Open champions since 2021:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 15.5
- SG: Approach: 7.3
- SG: Around-the-Green: 11.5
- SG: Putting: 22.0
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 2.5
- Driving Distance: 23.5
- Driving Accuracy: 26.5
The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio has been the host venue since 2010 and has preceded The Masters since 2019. The front-nine features some difficult and longer par-4s and 5s, while the closing stretch has opportunity for those chasing the lead to make a run as none of the final five holes played over-par last year. Off the tee, players are faced with tree-lined fairways and that are quite narrow averaging less than 28 yards wide with short rough surrounding. Statistically, not a lot jumps off the page from the stats above other than that the winner has led the field in SG: Tee-to-Green in back-to-back years. I don't think there's much of a premium on distance or accuracy as the fairways will be tough to hit and the key will be to avoid the big misses. Expect to see a lot of approach shots inside of 125 yards and from 250+ on the four par-5s. This has traditionally been a difficult test compared to the average Tour venue, so I'll be targeting players that rank well in bogey avoidance.
Course History
The following players have the lowest scoring average at TPC San Antonio over the last four years:
- Denny McCarthy: 69.6
- Jordan Spieth: 69.6
- Sam Stevens: 69.7
- Matt Kuchar: 70.0
- Corey Conners: 70.1
McCarthy and Spieth have identical scoring averages at the event since 2021, and McCarthy put on a memorable display last year in which he birdied the final seven holes before losing in a playoff to Bhatia. Texas native Spieth won the event by two shots in 2021 and has posted four top-10s here over his last six appearances. If the course history angle is your jam, these are two great targets this week. A player on this list in excellent form is Conners, who reeled off three straight top-10 finishes during the Florida Swing. The question is, can he keep that going outside of the Sunshine State? That seems more than possible for the time two-time event champion, who won as a Monday Qualifier back in 2019. The downside is that he's tied for the second choice on the board at 16-1.
Current Form
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds.
- Rico Hoey: 1.56
- Tommy Fleetwood: 1.49
- Daniel Berger: 1.38
- Patrick Cantlay: 1.30
- Si Woo Kim: 1.28
A name you might not expect to see at the top of this list, Hoey has statistically been really good this year despite his under the radar nature. He ranks sixth from tee to green for the season and only Rory McIlroy has been better off the tee. Granted, some of that is inflated as he's only played one notable event, and he ranks second to last in putting. Hoey finished T14 in his Valero debut last year and is a longshot to keep an eye on at 70-1 odds. A bit farther up the odds board we find Kim (35-1), wo has been solid with four top-25s over his last six starts but is still looking for his first top-10 in 2025. This looks to be a good spot for him to end that drought, as Kim has made six consecutive cuts at the event, highlighted by a T4 in 2019.
Valero Texas Open Bets: Outright Picks
Tommy Fleetwood (16-1)
Fleetwood made his Valero debut last year, and he played well to finish T7 while ranking fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green. The narrative around him is that he can't win, and rightfully so, but this course sets up well for him to end the drought.
Tom Kim (40-1)
The Texas resident has been dialed in with his irons lately, as he led the field in SG: Approach at TPC Sawgrass and ranks seventh in the category this year. The problem is his form on the greens has been awful. His best putting week this year led to a T7 finish.
Ryan Gerard (70-1)
Gerard makes for a sneaky longshot selection coming off a ninth place finish last week in which he ranked second in SG: Approach. He's gained strokes in the category in all eight of his tournaments this year as the 25-year-old has reached a new career-high in the OWGR.
Valero Texas Open Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Alex Smalley (5-1)
We get a discount in price on Smalley following back-to-back missed cuts, but let's not forget this is a player with a top-20 finish in over half of his starts this year. He ranks in the top-10 in SG: Tee-to-Green, off-the-tee and around-the-green.
Andrew Putnam (7-1)
Putnam has a solid track record at TPC San Antonio having made 6-of-7 cuts with one top-10 and a T14 last year in which he avoided an over-par round at the difficult setup. A lack of distance isn't much of a detriment here, which is Putnam's lone weakness.
Ben James (12-1)
The University of Virginia junior is playing on a sponsor's exemption and currently sits third in the World Amateur Golf Rankings behind Luke Clanton and Jackson Koivun. James has good memories of the venue, winning the Valero Texas Collegiate here last September.
Valero Texas Open Bets: To Miss The Cut
Hideki Matsuyama (+270)
Matsuyama is coming off a missed cut at The PLAYERS and has lost strokes on approach in back-to-back tournaments. He's played well here the last couple years but also withdrew after an opening round 74 in 2022. Matsuyama has failed to post a top-10 since winning The Sentry, and I'm fading him this week.
Tony Finau (+200)
Finau has skipped this event the last couple years and his results overall here are mediocre outside of a T3 in 2017: T68-T61-MC-T29. He's played in four full-field events this year and missed the cut in three, and like Matsuyama, has lost strokes on approach in consecutive events.
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