This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
THE PLAYERS Championship Betting Preview
The flagship event for the PGA Tour gets underway this week at its headquarters in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, for the annual PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass. The famous Pete Dye design is commonly referred to as golf's 'fifth major' as it brings the best players on the Tour together for a field of 144 players that is headlined by tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler at 4-1 odds. Last year, Scheffler (5-1) successfully defended his title with a one-shot victory over Xander Schauffele, Brian Harman and Wyndham Clark.
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Course Overview
Par 72, 7,352 yards
These are the average rankings of the event champions since 2021.
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 21.0
- SG: Approach: 5.3
- SG: Around-the-Green: 10.0
- SG: Putting: 32.0
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 9.5
- Driving Distance: 10.8
- Driving Accuracy: 31.0
As is the case with Dye designs, this is a positional and strategic venue and much different than a lot of bomb-and-gouge type setups. Off the tee, players are faced with fairly narrow fairways that average 30 yards wide and are surrounded by four inch rough and pine straw that will punish missed fairways more than the average Tour course. As we can see from the stats above, iron play is a key factor as the winner has ranked seventh or better in approach the last five tournaments here, and this place will certainly test every club in the bag. The four par-5s and the driveable par-4 12th are the primary scoring opportunities. The sixth hole has been getting plenty of attention for a low hanging tree just ahead of the tee box that require some interesting stingers off the tee. Everyone knows the prestigious par-3 17th island green and the closing stretch brings a lot of excitement into play - remember when Rickie Fowler played the closing four holes in five-under and went on to win in a three-way playoff back in 2015? The weather forecast looks clear the first three days before potentially windy conditions and higher scoring could be in play Sunday.
Course History
The following players have the lowest scoring average at TPC Sawgrass over the last four years.
- Scottie Scheffler: 69.6
- Hideki Matsuyama: 69.7
- Brian Harman: 70.1
- Si Woo Kim: 70.2
- Matt Fitzpatrick: 70.6
It's no surprise to see Scheffler atop this list as he looks to become just the second player to win the event three times (alongside Jack Nicklaus) while being the only golfer to do it in three straight years. Although his putting has been average during his two wins, he's dominated from tee to green, leading the field in the category in both of his wins. Another player that's shown form here is Harman, who is in search of his first title here but has been close with four top-10s since 2015 and two T3 or better finishes since 2021. He led the field in SG: Approach at the event last year, but he's also only had one top-10 since then. He's mixed in a couple top-25s over his last four starts but would be a longshot winner at 90-1 odds.
Current Form
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.
- Nick Taylor: 1.29
- Justin Thomas: 1.08
- Collin Morikawa: 1.07
- Scottie Scheffler: 1.04
- Sepp Straka: 1.02
Taylor continues to be dialed in with his iron play, ranking 11th in approach at Bay Hill last week but a poor week with his short game led to a T31 result for just his second finish outside the top-25 in his last six starts. The Canadian is still looking for his first top-10 at TPC Sawgrass, which has alluded him across seven appearances, but his form has never been better. Another player that's been in great form with his irons is Straka (40-1 odds), who is fresh off a T5 finish at the API last week despite an opening round 77. He's no stranger to playing well in the Sunshine State and has a top-10 at the event in 2022 and a T16 result last year. Outside of being a poor bunker player, Straka does everything else really well, and I wouldn't be surprised if he won again this year.
THE PLAYERS Championship Bets: Outright Picks
Ludvig Aberg (16-1)
I know past success isn't the be-all, end-all here, but it surely doesn't hurt that Aberg finished eighth in his debut despite losing strokes on the greens. The ball-striking is elite, which he showed in his win at Torrey Pines.
Justin Thomas (22-1)
Thomas is a recent winner of the event, hoisting the trophy in 2021 as he led the field in SG: Tee-to-Green in a come from behind victory. He was 12th from tee to green at Bay Hill and has three top-10s over his last five starts.
Daniel Berger (60-1)
Berger has gained shots in every strokes gained category in four consecutive tournaments as his strong play continued last week with his fourth straight top-25 finish. The Floridian hasn't played the event the last two years but was T9 in 2021 and T13 the year after.
THE PLAYERS Championship Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Min Woo Lee (6-1)
Lee tends to elevate on the biggest stages – across 15 appearances at the majors and The PLAYERS, he's posted seven top-25s and was just two back heading into the final round here two years ago. Elite distance and short game makes the 26-year-old an enticing target.
Doug Ghim (13-2)
Ghim's strengths of putting the ball in the fairway off the tee and elite iron play makes him an excellent fit for TPC Sawgrass, so it's no wonder that he has a pair of top-20s here including a T6 in 2022. He's also coming off a T11 at PGA National in his last start.
Cam Davis (10-1)
Although Davis has missed his last two cuts, his overall level of play this year has been much improved as evidenced by his three top-20s including a top-5 in a signature event. He's been feast-or-famine at the event with three missed cuts and a T6 two years ago.
THE PLAYERS Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Sungjae Im (+100) over Shane Lowry
Im hasn't had his best since posting a pair of top-5s early in the year, but he showed better form with a top-20 last week. He's no stranger to playing well in Florida, having won at PGA National and has also had success at TPC Sawgrass with a T6 in 2023. Lowry faded over the weekend at Bay Hill and tends to be a bit too reliant on his short game for this ball-striking test, so I'll take Im as the underdog here.
Thomas Detry (+100) over Christiaan Bezuidenhout
I know Bezuidenhout's short game is one of the best in the world, but Detry is a fantastic putter himself and has the far superior long game. Bezuidenhout has only gained strokes with his ball-striking in 2-of-7 tournaments this year, so I'm surprised he's the favorite in this matchup. Similar to Lee, Detry raises his level on the bigger stages.
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