This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
We're onto Week 2 of the NFL season after some uninspiring offensive performances last weekend. The next step is taking into account what we saw without overreacting, which is always a difficult balance. As we make out picks for the upcoming slate of games, we can look to the picks app for assistance.
A few things I look at when picking overs include situations where targets have condensed and players who have the profile of a breakout where the market hasn't adjusted.
Conversely, offensive philosophy and likely game flow/plan are my most important factors when considering under selections.
Finally, for those who have yet to deposit on Underdog, take advantage of our promo code at this link and use code ROTONFL to get a bonus match of up to $250 on your deposit.
Over
Malik Nabers 
at WAS – over 65.5 receiving yards
The Giants offense failed its test in Week 1 in a matchup against the Vikings, but Nabers was at the center of the passing attack and will continue to be. He ran 49 routes in Week 1, so even another inefficient performance will have him go over this total if that usage continues. Washington's defense could turn things around as the season progresses, but the unit got torched by the Buccaneers last weekend, so Nabers should be able to function well enough to surpass this yardage total.
Rashid Shaheed 
at DAL – over 35.5 receiving yards
The Saints' offense may have had its best performance of the season in Week 1 against the Panthers, but Shaheed is underestimated at this total. The highlight of his day was a long touchdown early in the game, but more interesting for the purposes of consistency (and hitting this prop) were the targets he saw in the short areas of the field. In Week 2, the Saints likely will have to take to the air more to keep up with the Cowboys, so even when Chris Olave sees more targets shift his way there should be plenty left for Shaheed.
Jameson Williams 
vs. TB – over 45.5 receiving yards
Williams ran 30 routes in Week 1, the same number of times Jared Goff dropped back to pass. We never saw his usage approach that mark last season as he reached that raw total twice in 15 chances, including the playoffs, and his route participation rate was only 53.3 percent. To summarize those numbers, the Lions acted on the hype that they created for Williams this offseason. The Buccaneers' secondary looked good against rookie Jayden Daniels in Week 1, but it is beat up heading into this matchup, highlighted by Antoine Winfield (ankle).
Rachaad White 
at DET – over 25.5 receiving yards
White's peripherals from Week 1 present two different pictures. Positively, he was very involved as a route runner (21 routes, with a 28.6 percent target per route run rate), which suggests he can easily clear this number. The concern is that his aDOT was -5.0, meaning he was sitting in the backfield waiting for dump offs rather than running legitimate routes. Nevertheless, the over is appealing because even as White's role as a rusher comes into question, there's no doubt about his role as the Bucs' pass-catching back.
Colby Parkinson 
vs. ARI – over 29.5 receiving yards
There are a lot of targets up for grabs in L.A. after the unfortunate news for Puka Nacua (knee). Tyler Johnson and Demarcus Robinson could benefit, but we have some reassurance that Parkinson has a role in the passing attack. Particularly positive was that of Matthew Stafford's 51 drop backs, Parkinson ran a route on 40 occasions. In other words, he wasn't brought on the field to block, which is good news for his potential stat line.
Under
Justin Herbert 
at CAR – under 29.5 passing attempts
The Chargers came away with a 22-10 victory over the Raiders in Week 1, which looks pretty comfortable. However, they were in a one-score game for nearly the entire contest and were losing for approximately 22 minutes of game time. Despite that, Justin Hebert attempted only 26 passes. Now, the Chargers will face what appears to be one of the most inept offenses in the league, meaning they can rely on the combination of Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins as well as their defense and comfortably walk out of Carolina with a win.
Will Levis 
vs. New York Jets – under 20 pass completions
Levis made a boneheaded decision late in Sunday's game to cost the Titans a likely victory. After the game, coach Brian Callahan said that the team probably would have won had they just punted on first down every possession after taking the lead. That doesn't sound like a coach ready to air the ball out heading into a Week 2 matchup. This number would also rely on Levis being an accurate passer, but he has just a career 58.5 percent completion rate.
Caleb Williams 
at HOU – under 242.5 passing + rushing yards
Williams had a disastrous NFL debut. That certainly doesn't doom him for his career or Week 2, but after his initial performance, I'll bet against him until proven otherwise. The Bears proved to have a stout defense, and they'll likely ask Williams to limit his mistakes and rely on slowing the pace down in a low-scoring game to try to walk away with an upset win over the Texans.
C.J. Stroud 
vs. CHI – under 23.5 pass completions
The combination of Stroud, Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell suggests the Texans should be pass happy. However, throughout Stroud's time under center, that has never been reality. The Texans had a -2.2 pass rate over expectation in 2023 and were in the same range again last week. This isn't a knock on the quality of quarterback Stroud has proven to be, and it's always a bit uncomfortable to lean against a talented player. In this case, that's the right move based on team philosophy and playcalling.
