2025 NFL MVP Odds & Predictions: Updated NFL MVP Race (Week 9)

At first, the 2025 NFL MVP odds suggested we were getting one of the most compelling award races we've seen in a while. Dark-horse candidates like Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and even Daniel Jones were all legitimate contenders in the NFL MVP race. But that feels like it's over now. 

There's still a long way to go, but after eight weeks, it officially feels like Patrick Mahomes' award to lose. The two-time MVP is available at +150 via the bet365 bonus code, and he's now the clear-cut favorite to bring home the hardware for the third time in his career. His Kansas City Chiefs are also favored to win the title according to the latest odds to win the Super Bowl. 

Below, I'll break down everything you need to know about the 2025 NFL MVP race, including the odds to win NFL MVP, the best NFL MVP bets to make, and a few long-shot plays to consider. 

Current NFL MVP Odds Race: Week 9, 2025

The latest NFL Week 9 odds suggest names like Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, and Drake Maye will have a chance to bolster their MVP case. Below I'll break down everything you need to know about the top contenders to win the award. 

Note: All odds in table below were pulled from a variety of sportsbooks. They are the longest available odds as of the writing of this article. 

2025 NFL MVP Contenders 

Here are the top-four 2025 NFL MVP contenders according to the latest odds from BetMGM Sportsbook:

Patrick Mahomes (+150) 

Patrick Mahomes was playing some of the best football of his career while throwing to Hollywood Brown, Tyquan Thornton, and an aging Travis Kelce. Through six weeks, Mahomes was No. 10 in EPA per play and pacing for a career-high 629.0 rushing yards, as he had to put this short-handed offense on his back. For reference, his previous high was 389. Now, he's got his No. 1 target back in Rashee Rice, and the dynamic Xavier Worthy is back as well. We saw the impact instantly. Mahomes was second in EPA per play in Week 7, first in success rate, and he finished 314 total yards, 3 TDs, 1 sack and no INTs – in just three quarters of action. If that's a sign of things to come, Mahomes has this award wrapped up. 

👑 Case to Win MVP:

• ✅ Putting a short-handed offense on his back
• ✅ Massive spike in rushing production 
• ✅ Numbers should spike with return of Rice & Worthy

🛑 Case Against: 

• ❌ Voter fatigue – already won twice 
• ❌ Chiefs' 4-3 record  

Josh Allen (+350) 

After putting on one of the most impressive performances in recent memory in the season opener, Josh Allen has been quiet – at least by his lofty standards. Allen recorded 394 passing yards with two TDs in Week 1, adding another 30 yards and two more scores on the ground. He's been held under 250 passing yards in five of six games since then (topping out at 253). I'm not sure this receiving corps is good enough for him to put up gaudy numbers as a passer, and the dominant James Cook-led rushing attack is taking opportunities away from him. This is still Josh Allen, so he could go off at any time, but I think he's overvalued right now at +350. 

👑 Case to Win MVP:

• ✅ It's Josh Allen
• ✅ Weaker receiving corps – offense runs through Allen 
• ✅ Week 9 matchup with Mahomes could bolster case

🛑 Case Against: 

• ❌ (Relatively) down year statistically 
• ❌ Bills second in AFC East at 4-2 

Drake Maye (+500) 

It only took the Patriots four seasons to find Tom Brady's successor. Drake Maye is third in EPA per play, fifth in success rate, and he leads the league with 12.3% completion percentage above expectation. He's done that despite playing behind an offensive line that was so bad last year that analysts argued Maye should remain on the bench, fearing he'd get hurt. His skill-position group isn't anything to write home about, and the run game is actively hurting this team, as NE owns the league's second-worst rushing EPA and third-worst success rate. And yet, the Patriots' offense is sixth in EPA per play and eighth in PPG entirely because of Maye. He's third in total yards (2,276), accounting for over 80.0% of New England's yards this season. That's legitimate MVP-level play. 

Factor in the Patriots' 6-2 record, putting them first in the AFC East, and their remaining schedule (the easiest in the league), and Maye is checking every box needed to win MVP. You missed the window to get insane value here, as he was 10-to-1 as recently as Week 8. Currently 5-to-1, this feels like a fair price for a player who has a real chance to win. 

👑 Case to Win MVP:

• ✅ Elite efficiency & statistical profile 
• ✅ Great narrative – leading underdog Patriots to 5-2 record (No. 1 in AFC East)
• ✅ Easiest remaining schedule in NFL – could rack up easy wins & stats

🛑 Case Against: 

• ❌ Are the Patriots really good enough to get the record he'll need to win? 
• ❌ Occasionally reckless play style makes him injury risk 

Baker Mayfield (+1200) 

Baker Mayfield has been a magician this season. He leads the league with four fourth-quarter comebacks in 2025. Those have accounted for four of Tampa Bay's five wins. He's sixth in passing yards and tied for sixth in passing TDs. That may not sound fully MVP-worthy, but you have to consider the circumstances. He's been without his top-two receivers most of the year, and Mike Evans might miss the rest of the season. His leading receivers have been a rookie, Sterling Shepard and Cade Otten. And the vaunted Buccaneers' OL has been ravaged by injuries, grading out as a below-average unit, per PFF. If Tampa gets healthy, Mayfield's down-to-down efficiency improves, and the 6-2 Bucs secure the No. 1 seed, Mayfield could easily vault up the standings in the NFL MVP race.  

👑 Case to Win MVP:

• ✅ Best narrative – which matters 
• ✅ Putting Buccaneers' on his back amid skill-position injuries 
• ✅ Repeated late-game heroics 

🛑 Case Against: 

• ❌ Great but not dominant statistically
• ❌ So-so efficiency – outside top-10 in EPA per play 
• ❌ No. 22 in success rate – struggles to move the ball without explosives

2025 Dark-Horse MVP Candidates

Each week I'll pick a few players, currently sitting outside the top five in the odds to win MVP, that I think have a real shot at winning. 

Jalen Hurts (+2800) 

I'm not the biggest Jalen Hurts believer, but I have to admit I'm intrigued at +2800. The stage is set for Hurts to take over and make an MVP run. The Eagles have needed Hurts to air it out more recently, and Hurts has more than answered the call. He's averaging 267.0 passing yards per game over his last four, accounting for 10 touchdowns and 1 INT in that span. Saquon finally looked like his old self in Week 8, but he left the game due to injury. If he's not at 100%, Philadelphia might lean on Hurts down the stretch. That makes him an interesting value at +2800. He was +5000 when I wrote about him last week, so he's clearly making a run lately. 

👑 Case to Win MVP:

• ✅ Excellent passing performance recently  
• ✅ Increased role in offense due to significant dip in Saquon's production
• ✅ 6-2 Eagles remain top pick for No. 1 seed in NFC  

Justin Herbert (+3000) 

Justin Herbert is more than just Madison Beer's boyfriend. He's playing the best football of his career right now. Herbert leads all players with a whopping 2,388 yards accounted for this season – outpacing fellow MVP candidates Patrick Mahomes and Drake Maye. He's doing that behind one of the most injured offenses in the league. His schedule also sets up really nicely for making a run at this award. The Chargers should be favored in each of their next four games, facing the Titans, Steelers (at home), Jaguars, and Raiders. Pittsburgh will be the toughest test, but that looks like a 4-0 run to me. He'll then have the bright lights on him as he'll face the Eagles, and Chiefs over the next two weeks. Tough games to be sure, but also real chances to establish himself in the MVP race. 

👑 Case to Win MVP:

• ✅ Best statistical performance of his career so far
• ✅ Perfectly set-up schedule to make a run 
• ✅ Carrying massive offensive burden

Dak Prescott (+6600) 

In terms of being a pure pocket-passer, it's hard to say anyone is playing better than Dak Prescott right now. He's fourth in EPA per play among QBs, and second in both passing yards (1,881) and passing touchdowns (16). He's doing that on massive volume, sitting second in passing attempts (259), which makes his 1.7% turnover-worthy play rate (fifth-best in NFL) all the more impressive. And he's done most of that without his top target in CeeDee Lamb, who returned to the field with 110 yards in Week 7. The Cowboys' inept defense is going to be both the biggest boon and issue with Prescott's MVP case. He'll need gaudy numbers to keep his team in games week after week, as Dallas owns the NFL's second-worst scoring defense. But that unit could easily prevent Prescott from getting enough wins to take home the award. Prescott's case took a huge hit after he laid an egg in Week 8, but he's an interesting dart-throw at +6600. 

👑 Case to Win MVP:

• ✅ Near-miss in 2023 (finished second)
• ✅ Elite efficiency & statistical profile 
• ✅ Winning in-spite of league-worst defense
• ✅ Return of CeeDee Lamb could take already-dominant stats to new heights

Best 2025 NFL MVP Bets

Now that you have all the context surrounding the 2025 NFL MVP odds, I'll give you my best bets. Here are my two best 2025 NFL MVP bets to make heading into Week 9:  

Drake Maye 

As the president of the Drake Maye Fan Club, I've got no shortage of stats that prove he's an MVP-worthy QB right now. But I'll keep it simple here. If this award was decided after eight weeks, I think it should go to Maye. He's doing more than just about anyone else, and he's doing it with way less help. With the league's easiest schedule moving forward, I don't think he'll slow down anytime soon – and his Patriots have a real shot to beat out the Bills for the AFC East crown. Maye is still available at 5-to-1 right now, but I'm betting those odds are even shorter this time next week. 

• 🏆 Best Current NFL MVP Odds: +500 (BetMGM) 

Matthew Stafford 

It's a football crime that no one is talking about the play of the 37-year-old Matthew Stafford. To be fair, I just wrote an entire breakdown of the MVP race and am only just now mentioning him. But he deserves better. Stafford is second among all qualified passers with 266.6 passing yards per game; he leads the league with 2.43 passing TDs per outing, and he's tossing INTs at one of the lowest rates in football. And I think the Rams have a legitimate shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The defense is quietly playing at a top-five level, the offense is as good as ever, and they're 5-2. If Stafford keeps this pace up, and LA secures or gets close to the top of the NFC, I think the voters might be inclined to reward Stafford. The 37-year-old has never won league MVP, and this is almost certainly his last shot. 

• 🏆 Best Current NFL MVP Odds: +1600 (FanDuel Sportsbook) 

Current NFL MVP Predictions: Week 9

Each week, I'll update this section with my prediction to win the NFL MVP. This section will ignore the odds or value and just highlight who I think is most likely to win. Here's my latest NFL MVP prediction, as of Week 9. 

Patrick Mahomes to Win NFL MVP 

The other contenders are fun to write about. The top-five candidates are comprised of my four favorite QBs to watch (Allen, Mayfield, Maye, and Stafford). But even I have to admit this is Mahomes' award to lose. The fact that he was in the running while throwing to Tyquan Thornton and Hollywood Brown, with no running game, says all you need to know. And now that Rice and Worthy are back, I expect his numbers to explode in the second half. If we're ignoring the value of the odds, Mahomes is the clear-cut pick as of Week 9. 

Compare All NFL MVP Odds: Week 9

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