2025 NFL MVP Odds & Predictions: Updated NFL MVP Race (Week 15)

The 2025 NFL MVP odds now show a two-horse race, as Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford look like clear-cut favorites in the NFL MVP race. But mainstays like Josh Allen and newcomers like Jordan Love aren't out of the running yet.

Below, I'll break down everything you need to know about the 2025 NFL MVP race, including the odds to win NFL MVP, the best NFL MVP bets to make, and a few long-shot plays to consider. Make sure you check out the current odds to win the Super Bowl as well. 

Current NFL MVP Odds Race: Week 15, 2025

The latest NFL Week 15 odds suggest this race could get even tighter this week. Below, I'll break down everything you need to know about the top contenders to win the award.

Note: All odds in table below were pulled from a variety of sportsbooks. They are the longest or "best" available odds as of the writing of this article. 

2025 NFL MVP Contenders 

Here are the top-three 2025 NFL MVP contenders according to the latest odds from top operators like BetMGM Sportsbook:

Matthew Stafford (-160)

Stafford leads all passers with 35 touchdowns and he's only thrown four interceptions. Unfortunately, two of those came in Week 13 during the Rams' shocking loss to the Carolina Panthers. That loss dropped Stafford from being the resounding favorite to being a close second behind Maye. But he wasted no time making up ground, retaking the lead after delivering a 281-yard, three-touchdown performance in Week 14. If Stafford and the Rams keep this up, the voters might be inclined to reward him. The 37-year-old has never won league MVP, and this is almost certainly his last shot. 

👑 Case to Win MVP:

• ✅ Best pocket-passing statistics in the league
• ✅ Excellent narrative – first MVP in 17th season is crowning achievement of HOF-level career
• ✅ 10-3 Rams likely have best shot to be top seed in the NFC

🛑 Case Against: 

• ❌ 37-year-old with lengthy injury history – any missed games hurt his chances 
• ❌ Will voters hold his tremendous supporting cast against him? 
• ❌ Brutal Week 13 loss to the Panthers, tossing two INTs

Drake Maye (+205) 

It only took the Patriots four seasons to find Tom Brady's successor. Drake Maye is second in EPA per play, fourth in success rate, and he leads the league with 9.6% completion percentage above expectation. His Patriots are seventh in EPA per play and seventh in PPG entirely because of Maye. He's third in total yards (3,733), accounting for nearly 80.0% of New England's yards this season. That's legitimate MVP-level play. 

If he leads this Patriots roster to the best record in football, it'll be hard to give this award to anyone else. That's more true than ever now, as NE will likely be without starting LT Will Campbell for the rest of the regular season. 

👑 Case to Win MVP:

• ✅ Elite efficiency & statistical profile 
• ✅ Great narrative – leading underdog Patriots to 11-2 record (No. 1 in AFC East)
• ✅ Easy remaining schedule – should rack up easy wins & stats

🛑 Case Against: 

• ❌ Needs a few big-time games to make up ground against Stafford, statistically
• ❌ Somehow still doesn't have one 300-yard passing performance
• ❌ Occasionally reckless play style makes him injury risk 

Jordan Love (+1000) 

Jordan Love has officially entered the 2025 MVP race, vaulting up to fourth in the odds to win MVP. Love is an analytics darling. He ranks No. 1 in EPA per play and adjusted EPA per play, No. 5 in success rate, No. 3 in completion percentage above expectation, and his Packers lead the league in EPA per play to boot. 

But Love's traditional counting stats aren't MVP-level. He ranks No. 9 in passing yards (3,028) and T-5, alongside five other QBs, with 22 passing TDs. To me, that looks more like a Pro Bowler than an All-Pro. And the voters generally seem to rely on more traditional statistics like wins, yards, and touchdowns when deciding which QB to vote for. 

At +1000, I think you're setting money on fire by betting him right now. He has finished with fewer than 190 passing yards in six of his 13 starts, and he doesn't really supplement that with much rushing production. Other than advanced stats, which voters traditionally don't put much weight into, it's hard to see where Love separates himself from the competition. 

👑 Case to Win MVP:

• ✅ Remarkably efficient – an analytics darling
• ✅ Dominant despite so-so receiving corps since Tucker Kraft went down
• ✅ Packers 9-3-1 still in contention for No. 1 seed in NFC

🛑 Case Against: 

• ❌ Way behind Maye & Stafford in traditional passing stats
• ❌ Incredibly inconsistent – finished 6/13 starts with fewer than 190 passing yards
• ❌ Packers unlikely to unseat Rams atop the NFC

2025 Dark-Horse MVP Candidates

Each week I'll pick a few players, currently sitting outside the top three in the odds to win MVP, that I think have a real shot at winning. 

Josh Allen (+1500) 

If you want to understand Josh Allen's MVP case, put on his Week 11 tape. He threw for 317 yards with 3 touchdowns, adding 40 yards and three more touchdowns with his legs. If you want to know why he might not win the award, put on his Week 12 tape. Allen was sacked 8 times and turned it over twice while accounting for no TDs. Allen likely needs a massive statistical season in order to justify winning back-to-back MVP awards, and he kept those hopes alive with a dominant showing in Week 14.

When Allen is on, no one can match his statistical output. He recorded 329 total yards with four total TDs. If he repeats that against New England, he's got a real shot to vault up the leaderboard.

👑 Case to Win MVP:

• ✅ It's Josh Allen
• ✅ Terrible receiving corps – offense runs through Allen 
• ✅ Dominants win over Mahomes & Mayfield

🛑 Case Against: 

• ❌ He just won last year – he'll need an insane finish to justify back-to-back wins
• ❌ Down year statistically (by his lofty standards)
• ❌ Bills trailing Maye's Patriots in AFC East

Best 2025 NFL MVP Bets

Now that you have all the context surrounding the 2025 NFL MVP odds, I'll give you my best bets. Here are my best 2025 NFL MVP bets to make heading into Week 15: 

Josh Allen (+1500) 

While Buffalo lost to New England in Week 6, things could be different this time around. The Patriots will be without star LT Will Campbell and star DT Milton Williams. Both LG Jared Wilson and DT Khyiris Tonga are likely to play, but they've been banged up recently. That means New England is not going to be nearly as strong in the trenches as they were last time. 

For example, New England was the league's fourth-best run defense in EPA from Weeks 1-6. Since then, they're 20th in that same metric. The Pats aren't going to be able to bottle up the Bills' ground game again, and that could very well lead to a Bills victory. And if Josh Allen beats the New England Patriots, his Bills would be just a game back for control of the AFC East. His odds would correspondingly skyrocket. If you think Buffalo is going to win this week, I'd bet Allen to win MVP now. 

Current NFL MVP Predictions: Week 15

Each week, I'll update this section with my prediction to win the NFL MVP. This section will ignore the odds or value and just highlight who I think is most likely to win. Here's my latest NFL MVP prediction, as of Week 15. 

Drake Maye to Win NFL MVP

I've had Matthew Stafford here for the past few weeks, but I'm flipping back to my original pick: Drake Maye. In Week 13, Stafford torpedoed his case by tossing two picks in a terrible loss to the Panthers, while Maye delivered another stellar performance. Yes, Maye hasn't exactly faced a murderer's row of opponents this season. But he's more than made up for that by dragging a sub-par Patriots roster to the best record in football. 

Ian Hartitz recently pulled the NFL's supporting cast rankings, which is a composite of every team's PFF offensive grade (pass blocking, run blocking, receiving, etc.), everything except passing. Stafford's Rams were viewed as the league's second-best supporting cast, while Maye's Patriots were all the way down at 18th. That gulf has only grown more extreme, as Maye could be without the entire starting left side of his OL for the next few weeks. 

To put it simply, Drake Maye is doing more than just about anyone else in the league, and he's doing it with significantly less help. That's the textbook definition of an MVP. 

• 🏆 Best Current NFL MVP Odds: +205 (Caesars Sportsbook) 

Compare All NFL MVP Odds: Week 15

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