This article is part of our DFS NFL series.
The NFL has focused on improving the quality of Thursday Night Football this season, at least from the perspective of team name value. That falls apart a bit in Week 5, as we have the pitiful Bears squaring off against a more competitive Commanders team. With the Commanders as the host team, we have a sizable six-point spread with a game total of 44.5. That leaves Washington with an implied total of 25.25 and Chicago 19.25.
Quarterback
Despite being the significant underdog, Justin Fields ($11,000 DK, $17,000 FD) is the most expensive player on both DK and FD. He clearly illustrated his upside last season, thanks primarily to his rushing ability. This season, however, he hasn't excelled in that area as he has no more than 59 rushing yards in a game and only one rushing score. His work as a passer has also left plenty to be desired, as he has averaged 5.8 yards per attempt and 9.0 yards per completion. On paper, that makes Fields look like a clear stay away, but we know he is capable of game-breaking performances at any point. From the perspective of how we would want Fields to score points, we can look to Josh Allen's line in Week 2 line when he posted 46 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, 218 passing yards and another touchdown against the Commanders. That performance was worth about 23 points and could be a reasonable expectation for Fields.
We still have a limited sample from Sam Howell ($9,400 DK, $15,500 FD), but to this point, he's offered a safe floor without the potential for much upside. In four games, he's reached at least 16.18 points three times, never topping 21.26. While his rushing was never in the same realm as that of Fields, he was regarded as a decent dual-threat option. However, he's reached 20 rushing yards only once this season, so we should project for him to do the majority of his damage through the air. Fortunately, this is a good spot for Howell to do just that. He faces a Bears defense that has allowed the sixth-most passing yards and a league-leading 10 passing touchdowns. His ceiling isn't the same as Fields', but the floor should be safer.
Running Back
Pricing is more aligned at running back. Brian Robinson ($9,200 DK, $14,000 FD) is the highest-priced player, which makes sense when considering his consistent usage. Across four games, he has double-digit carries in every game and multiple targets in three of four. He's the only back who plays any real role on the team, as Antonio Gibson ($3,200 DK, $7,500 FD) has topped out at seven touches and has five or fewer in three of four games. As for production with the opportunity, Robinson has shown improvement over his rookie season. He has two rushes of more than 20 yards — matching his entire 2022 campaign — and has averaged 4.3 yards per carry. Robinson also owns the goal-line role and already has five rushes inside the 5-yard line. Given the implied score, there's a decent chance he finds the end zone. As for Gibson, there's no reason on paper to play him. Like quarterback, the matchup for opposing running backs is great.
In Chicago, Khalil Herbert ($8,600 DK, $11,000 FD) had his most significant role of the season in Week 4 when he played 55 offensive snaps as compared to 15 for Roschon Johnson ($4,800 DK, $7,500 FD). Prior to Sunday's game, the duo had been deployed in a much more even split. Presumably, Herbert will remain the clear featured back, which would make him a good value particularly given his consistent role as a pass catcher (multiple catches in all but one game). The Commanders are roughly a league-average matchup, so there's no reason to shy away from that perspective. Johnson has been reasonably productive with his work and still had one carry inside the 5 in Week 4 — even with the aforementioned decreased role. If there's any indication that the Bears will revert to more even usage, he's a decent option given the disparity in price.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
The top of the price range is once again split based on site. We'll start in Chicago because the analysis is more interesting. DJ Moore ($10,000 DK, $12,500 FD) has dominated routes run in Chicago, as he's run 147 on the season. Next up is Darnell Mooney ($5,000 DK, $8,500 FD) with 116. Unfortunately, the rest of Moore's usage and efficiency leave plenty to be desired. He's been targeted on only 16.3 percent of his routes, which ranks among the likes of Michael Wilson, Michael Gallup and Allen Lazard. Even, so he's topped 100 yards in half of his games and also has two touchdowns. His relative lack of volume and big-play ability makes him a better play on FD — where he's the most expensive wide receiver — but he's also solid on DK relative to the other options available in a single-game format.
Mooney has neither volume (10.3 percent targets per route run) nor efficiency (0.90 yards per route run) on his side. He'll need a touchdown to be relevant. The good news is that the Commanders have been particularly vulnerable to production against wide receivers early this season, having allowed around roughly the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position.
Cole Kmet ($6,400 DK, $10,000 FD) is coming off of a two-touchdown performance so likely will be popular as a result, but there's a solid case for playing him other than just chasing points. He's operated as the third pass catcher and has blended both volume and efficiency (23.3 targets per route run, 1.83 yards per route run). Unfortunately, he's priced accordingly and the matchup is tough, though I wouldn't put much stock in the latter factor.
A punt option could be Equanimeous St. Brown ($1,800 DK, $6,000 FD). With Chase Claypool away from the team, St. Brown ran 21 routes in Week 4. He had limited targets, but he should be on the field.
Flipping to Washington, Terry McLaurin ($10,200 DK, $12,000 FD) leads the way in receptions and yards, but he's surprisingly split targets almost evenly with Jahan Dotson ($7,000 DK, $9,000 FD) and Curtis Samuel ($5,600 DK, $10,500 FD). That means his difference in price from the other two pass catchers hasn't been worth it. It's possible that could change, but Howell has spread the ball between his targets. Dotson has had a dreadful start to the season with only 4.4 yards per target. We can bet on that efficiency improving, and he's discounted heavily on FD. On DK, Samuel is the more interesting option as he has an equivalent role to Dotson and has been more efficient in turning his targets into production to this point. Overall, all three are decent options in a positive matchup with McLaurin viable on both sites, Dotson on FD and Samuel on DK.
Logan Thomas ($5,200 DK, $7,000 FD) has played two and a half games, but he is the top tight end on the team. He isn't viable on DK due to Samuel's price, but there's more intrigue on FD due to his discounted price.
Kicker
Joey Slye ($4,200 DK, $9,000 FD) has only one field-goal attempt in each of his last two games, and he missed two of his four chances in Week 2. Cairo Santos ($4,600 DK, $8,500 FD) has seen even less opportunity, attempting only one field-goal attempt per game in each of the last three contests. Slye could be an interesting option given the implied total for the Commanders and relative lack of salary-saving options available.
Defense and Special Teams
The Commanders ($5,400 DK, $9,500 FD) have been matchup dependent. In games against the Cardinals and Broncos, they recorded 11 and 10 DK points. In games against the Bills and Eagles, they've recorded one and two DK points. The Bears are much closer to the Cardinals and Broncos, and Fields has turned the ball over seven times in four games. The problem is the price, but the matchup is excellent.
The Bears ($4,000 DK, $8,000 FD) have yet to top two points in a game, and just about any defensive metric available will back up those results. Look elsewhere for salary savings.
