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Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Texans find themselves in the divisional round of the postseason for the second straight season. However, they come into a showdown against the defending champion Chiefs with reduced offensive weaponry due to injuries, and they're also at a notable rest disadvantage.
Read on as we break down odds and best bets for Saturday's Divisional Round Weekend opener.
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Chiefs -455 (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ Texans +385 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Point spread: Chiefs -8.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ Texans +8.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Totals: Under 41.5 points (BetMGM Sportsbook)/ Over 41.5 points (bet365 Sportsbook)
The spread for this game has remained very stable over its brief lifespan. The Chiefs unsurprisingly opened as solid 8.5-point favorites over Houston after being idle last week, and KC hasn't been less than a 7.5-point favorite at any point during the week.
The total has also fluctuated over a one-point range. It opened at 42.5 and has subsequently bounced between that figure and 41.5. The public shows plenty of faith in a well-rested Chiefs defense being able to mostly exert their will against a struggling Texans attack that did finally show signs of life offensively in their wild-card win over the Chargers.
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs Betting Picks
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The Texans opened the 2024 season looking fully prepared to take the next step in their ascent. Both Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs looked like just the right offseason additions to put the offense on the same level as some of the other top units in the conference. Mixon did in fact deliver handsomely for the majority of the season, but Diggs ultimately suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 8.
Eventually, C.J. Stroud would suffer the loss of another key weapon in Tank Dell, who went down for the season after multiple knee ligament tears in Week 16 against this same Chiefs team. Houston had successfully traded blows with the defending champs at the time of Dell's injury. It ironically occurred on a touchdown catch early in the third quarter that brought the Texans to within one point of KC.
Without Dell and Diggs at their disposal, DeMeco Ryans' squad went on to drop a 27-19 decision to the Chiefs that day and then score zero offensive points in a 31-2 Christmas Day drubbing at the hands of the Ravens. Stroud got the offense clicking during his one possession in Week 18 against a disinterested Titans team, and then threw for an impressive 282 yards in last Saturday's wild-card victory over the Chargers. It lent some credence to the notion the Texans were increasingly adapting to the attrition at receiver. However, while there's definitely been signs of improvement, I don't foresee it being enough to knock off Patrick Mahomes and co. at home, especially after the Chiefs have had time to rest up some nagging injuries to key players.
Kansas City's defense wasn't as dominant on a play-to-play basis as in past years, but the Chiefs still finished the regular season ranked in the top 10 in total yards per game allowed (320.6) and points per home contest (18.6). KC also snagged 13 interceptions, including picking off Stroud on two occasions in their aforementioned Week 16 victory. Meanwhile, Andy Reid seemlessly adapted his play calling to Houston's pass-funnel defense as Mahomes threw 41 times in that contest on his way to 260 yards.
The Texans' secondary played lights out in the wild-card win over the Chargers, picking off Justin Herbert more times (four) than he'd been intercepted during the regular season (three). This game is a different set of circumstances. Not only is Houston on the road – where the Texans gave up 48.5 more passing yards per game (225.8) than at home (177.3) – but Mahomes comes in healthier than he did in Week 16, when he was fresh off a Week 15 ankle sprain. Plus he has now had time to develop rapport with Hollywood Brown, who put together a 5-45 line on eight targets in the first meeting.
Ultimately, I see the Chiefs delivering on their heavy favorite status with a win and Mahomes and his crew doing more than their fair share to surpass the very low total.
- SGP: Chiefs moneyline and Over 41.5 points (+128 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Texans @ Chiefs Prediction
Chiefs 27, Texans 20
Much like the Broncos-Bills wild-card matchup last Sunday, this shapes up as a game with a pretty clear outlook on paper. The Texans are young and talented but still clearly a level below their host in their current injury-hampered state on offense. The Chiefs may have a bit of rust early considering many of their front-line players haven't seen the field in three weeks. But the cream will eventually rise to the top in a game Houston should mostly keep competitive.
