This article is part of our Survivor series.
What a cruel Week 1. Five of the top six Survivor picks failed to win. Congrats to those who picked the Ravens (maybe we should always just pick against the Jets).
My pick, the Colts, tied the Texans. I went to bed Sunday night dreading the prospect of writing this column 17 more weeks without actually playing. When your team loses, you're not just dead in Survivor, Survivor is dead to you — do you really care anything about your pool after you get bounced?
However, much to my amazement, when I checked my pool the next day, I discovered that a tie counts as a win. Yep, it says it right there in the fine print:
Call it cheap, unfair, against the spirit of the game, whatever you like … I'm alive!
Other than that seemingly a-typical rule, my pool likely was typical of most. Of the 410 entries, 179 were eliminated — 43.7 percent.
Those who picked the Broncos probably have the biggest gripe. Missed field goals, blocked field goals, fluky two-point conversions, a monsoon — those things happen, as infuriating as they might be. But two fumbles lost at the goal line and the worst time management in the history of the sport, well, it takes an act of the Football Gods to make that happen.
In any event, on to Week 2.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind this Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com.
What a cruel Week 1. Five of the top six Survivor picks failed to win. Congrats to those who picked the Ravens (maybe we should always just pick against the Jets).
My pick, the Colts, tied the Texans. I went to bed Sunday night dreading the prospect of writing this column 17 more weeks without actually playing. When your team loses, you're not just dead in Survivor, Survivor is dead to you — do you really care anything about your pool after you get bounced?
However, much to my amazement, when I checked my pool the next day, I discovered that a tie counts as a win. Yep, it says it right there in the fine print:
Call it cheap, unfair, against the spirit of the game, whatever you like … I'm alive!
Other than that seemingly a-typical rule, my pool likely was typical of most. Of the 410 entries, 179 were eliminated — 43.7 percent.
Those who picked the Broncos probably have the biggest gripe. Missed field goals, blocked field goals, fluky two-point conversions, a monsoon — those things happen, as infuriating as they might be. But two fumbles lost at the goal line and the worst time management in the history of the sport, well, it takes an act of the Football Gods to make that happen.
In any event, on to Week 2.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind this Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAMS | Falcons | 30.0% | 485 | 82.91% | 5.13 |
| BRONCOS | Texans | 16.9% | 412.5 | 80.49% | 3.30 |
| BILLS | Titans | 10.8% | 390 | 79.59% | 2.20 |
| Bengals | COWBOYS | 10.7% | 302.5 | 75.16% | 2.66 |
| BROWNS | Jets | 10.7% | 225 | 69.23% | 3.29 |
| PACKERS | Bears | 7.3% | 417.5 | 80.68% | 1.41 |
| 49ERS | Seahawks | 4.8% | 415 | 80.58% | 0.93 |
| Colts | JAGUARS | 1.6% | 181.5 | 64.48% | 0.57 |
| CHIEFS | Chargers | 1.2% | 188 | 65.28% | 0.42 |
| RAIDERS | Cardinals | 1.0% | 225 | 69.23% | 0.31 |
| LIONS | Commanders | 0.9% | 122.5 | 55.06% | 0.40 |
| RAVENS | Dolphins | 0.8% | 170 | 62.96% | 0.30 |
| GIANTS | Panthers | 0.7% | 129.5 | 56.43% | 0.31 |
| Buccaneers | SAINTS | 0.5% | 137 | 57.81% | 0.21 |
| STEELERS | Patriots | 0.5% | 108.5 | 52.04% | 0.24 |
| Vikings | EAGLES | 0.2% | 120 | 54.55% | 0.09 |
Nearly a third of pickers are on the Rams. Still, the difference in popularity isn't enough (in my mind, at least) to fade Los Angeles. Just for fun, let's do some math to determine if picking, say, the Bills is a better pot-odds play.
To do that, we need to compare the risk ratio and reward ratio of picking the Bills.
A Rams win/Bills loss is .83 (Rams' Vegas Odds of winning, rounded) multiplied by .20 (Bills' Vegas Odds of losing, rounded), which is 16.6 percent. A Bills win/Rams loss is .80*.17 = 13.6 percent.
That means the risk ratio is 16.6/13.6 = 1.22.
For the reward ratio, let's use a hypothetical $10 buy-in, 100-person pool. If the Rams win/Bills lose, 11 people are out on the Bills plus another 14 non-Bills owners projected to lose, for 25 total losers. 100-25 = 75 remaining owners, $1,000/75 = $13.33.
If the Bills win/Rams lose, it's 30 out on the Rams plus 14 more, for 44 total. 100-44 = 56, $1,000/56 = $17.85. The ratio of $17.85/$13.33 is 1.34.
So, the reward outweighs the risk, but not by much. If, say, 50 percent of the pool was on the Rams, then the reward ratio in our exercise would be 2.08, a definite case for picking against the Rams. Alas, that's not the situation.
My Picks
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are still a good team, and good teams don't wilt when backed into corner. Extra time to prepare and facing Marcus Mariota instead of Josh Allen is a good combo.
Denver Broncos
Even if the Broncos only shoot themselves in the foot half as many times as they did last week, they should beat the Texans in their home debut.
San Francisco 49ers
Geno Smith played the game of his life last week, and the Seahawks still only scored 17 points. The 49ers won't have to play in scuba masks this week, and George Kittle is expected to return for this divisional rivalry at home.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers might be a flawed team, but the Bears are more flawed and certainly not as capable defensively as the Vikings were last week. Lambeau Field won't be as sloppy as Soldier Field was last week, and the Packers won't be as sloppy as they were either.
Cincinnati Bengals
So much for Cincinnati's "re-built" offensive line. Joe Burrow could be in for a tough day again, but how do the Cowboys score with Cooper Rush at quarterback when Dak Prescott could get nothing going last week?
Cleveland Browns
The pick-against-the-Jets strategy isn't bad.
Notable Omission:
Buffalo Bills
As is often said, Week 1 is a liar. The Bills are the better team, but the Titans are not as bad as they might have looked last week. Tennessee blew a 13-point lead, allowed a two-point conversion for the go-ahead score and then missed a 47-yard field goal for the win. I don't want to rest my Survivor fortunes on this one.
