Last week was torture if, like me, you had the Bucs in two of three pools, but all's well that ends well. The 49ers (my other pick) and Rams sailed through easily, but a few of the lesser-owned teams (Bills, Packers, Jaguars, Vikings, Ravens) combined to wipe out roughly 15 percent of pools.
Let's take a look at Week 2.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BROWNS | Texans | 36.6% | 600 | 85.71 | 5.23 |
| BUCCANEERS | Falcons | 21.1% | 675 | 87.10 | 2.72 |
| PACKERS | Lions | 17.4% | 487.5 | 82.98 | 2.96 |
| Broncos | JAGUARS | 6.4% | 235 | 70.15 | 1.91 |
| Patriots | JETS | 4.8% | 230 | 69.70 | 1.45 |
| SEAHAWKS | Titans | 2.8% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.85 |
| CARDINALS | Vikings | 2.5% | 187.5 | 65.22 | 0.87 |
| STEELERS | Raiders | 1.9% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.58 |
| Rams | COLTS | 1.4% | 180 | 64.29 | 0.50 |
| FOOTBALL TEAM | Giants | 1.3% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.50 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Like last week, there's a big three, the Browns, Buccaneers and Packers, and then a significant drop-off to the next tier (Broncos, Pats, Seahawks, Steelers.) I would only consider the top three, and ownership percentages favor the Bucs and Packers over the Browns.
Chirs Liss discusses Week 2 Survivor Strategy in this three-minute video
My Picks
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I used them last week in two of my three pools, but I like them again coming off 10-days rest and facing a soft Falcons squad that got decimated at home by the Eagles. I give the Buccaneers an 89 percent chance to
Last week was torture if, like me, you had the Bucs in two of three pools, but all's well that ends well. The 49ers (my other pick) and Rams sailed through easily, but a few of the lesser-owned teams (Bills, Packers, Jaguars, Vikings, Ravens) combined to wipe out roughly 15 percent of pools.
Let's take a look at Week 2.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BROWNS | Texans | 36.6% | 600 | 85.71 | 5.23 |
| BUCCANEERS | Falcons | 21.1% | 675 | 87.10 | 2.72 |
| PACKERS | Lions | 17.4% | 487.5 | 82.98 | 2.96 |
| Broncos | JAGUARS | 6.4% | 235 | 70.15 | 1.91 |
| Patriots | JETS | 4.8% | 230 | 69.70 | 1.45 |
| SEAHAWKS | Titans | 2.8% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.85 |
| CARDINALS | Vikings | 2.5% | 187.5 | 65.22 | 0.87 |
| STEELERS | Raiders | 1.9% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.58 |
| Rams | COLTS | 1.4% | 180 | 64.29 | 0.50 |
| FOOTBALL TEAM | Giants | 1.3% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.50 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Like last week, there's a big three, the Browns, Buccaneers and Packers, and then a significant drop-off to the next tier (Broncos, Pats, Seahawks, Steelers.) I would only consider the top three, and ownership percentages favor the Bucs and Packers over the Browns.
Chirs Liss discusses Week 2 Survivor Strategy in this three-minute video
My Picks
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I used them last week in two of my three pools, but I like them again coming off 10-days rest and facing a soft Falcons squad that got decimated at home by the Eagles. I give the Buccaneers an 89 percent chance to win this game.
2. Green Bay Packers
The Packers were a no-show last week against the Saints, but I'll give them a mulligan and expect a better showing home against the Lions. The Lions Week 1 final score looks closer than it really was against the Niners -- they were down 41-17 with two minutes left at home before the insane garbage-time rally. I give the Packers an 86 percent chance to win this game.
3. Cleveland Browns
The Browns fell apart in the fourth quarter against the Chiefs and lost Jedrick Wills to a multi-week injury. Moreover, Odell Beckham is still out, and the passing offense lacks consistent playmakers on whom it can count. That said, I'd expect Cleveland to run the ball well against Houston, and they're playing at home. I give the Browns an 86 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissons:
Denver Broncos -- They looked good last week and get a soft Jacksonville team, but they're on the road for the second straight week, and Trevor Lawrence should improve with valuable experience.
New England Patriots -- I'd expect them to handle a team with a rookie QB, but they have their own rookie QB, and this is a road game.
Seattle Seahawks -- They looked good last week, but the Titans, as bad as they were, have a puncher's chance with their offensive weapons.
Pittsburgh Steelers -- They needed a blocked punt TD to win in Buffalo, and while their defense is good, I'm still not sold on the offense.
