These five players are post-hype candidates to break out in 2024, even though a lot of the fantasy football world has maybe lost interest after past cases of heartbreak. Just because a hyped player disappoints once or even several times doesn't mean the hype was truly wrong – sometimes potential outcomes fail to occur for circumstantial reasons, and sometimes when the circumstances are more favorable the long-anticipated breakout still comes through, even if later than everyone had previously hoped. To be early is to be wrong entirely, but being both early to hype and then late to the breakout is worse yet. Sometimes you just gotta keep a fish on the line a little longer before you can reel it in safely.
The players are listed in generally descending ADP.
Noah Fant, TE, SEA
There was understandably a great deal of hype for Fant when Denver selected him in the first round out of Iowa in 2019. Fant was a productive player in college, and his tools grade was off the charts thanks to a dominant combine showing – not only did Fant run a 4.50-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4, 249 pounds, he also logged 95th or higher percentile marks in all of the vertical jump, broad jump and three-cone drill. Very few tight ends in NFL history come even close to Fant's level of athleticism.
The enthusiasm for Fant has largely run out after three nondescript seasons in Denver and two modest years in Seattle since then,
These five players are post-hype candidates to break out in 2024, even though a lot of the fantasy football world has maybe lost interest after past cases of heartbreak. Just because a hyped player disappoints once or even several times doesn't mean the hype was truly wrong – sometimes potential outcomes fail to occur for circumstantial reasons, and sometimes when the circumstances are more favorable the long-anticipated breakout still comes through, even if later than everyone had previously hoped. To be early is to be wrong entirely, but being both early to hype and then late to the breakout is worse yet. Sometimes you just gotta keep a fish on the line a little longer before you can reel it in safely.
The players are listed in generally descending ADP.
Noah Fant, TE, SEA
There was understandably a great deal of hype for Fant when Denver selected him in the first round out of Iowa in 2019. Fant was a productive player in college, and his tools grade was off the charts thanks to a dominant combine showing – not only did Fant run a 4.50-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4, 249 pounds, he also logged 95th or higher percentile marks in all of the vertical jump, broad jump and three-cone drill. Very few tight ends in NFL history come even close to Fant's level of athleticism.
The enthusiasm for Fant has largely run out after three nondescript seasons in Denver and two modest years in Seattle since then, but everything that made Fant an exciting prospect remains true about him now. Fant never played poorly in the NFL and his disappointing production clearly is more due to poor luck. Injuries have been a problem and may well continue to limit Fant – the latest issue being the foot injury that has him questionable for Week 1 – but if injuries get out of the way it otherwise appears 2024 will be a career year for Fant.
Not only did the Seahawks lose the starter-caliber duo of Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson, but new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb is expected to give Fant fewer blocking responsibilities than what occurred in Pete Carroll's run-heavy scheme. Whereas the surrounding circumstances in all of Fant's prior years were working against him, the details all line up for Fant to properly break out in 2024.
Jalen Tolbert, WR, DAL
There has been some level of anticipation for Tolbert back as far as his 2022 rookie year, when Dallas selected him in the third round out of South Alabama, but the two seasons since then have been slow if not disappointing. Tolbert caught only two passes for 12 yards as a rookie, and as a second-year player last year he was not particularly effective, either (22 catches for 268 yards and two touchdowns on 36 targets). Tolbert has been disappointing enough to this point that the prior hype has all but extinguished, leaving ADP markets surprisingly cool on Tolbert even though he's locked in as the WR3 in Dallas behind CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks.
That the hype for Tolbert has run out makes now the perfect time to draft him. You can usually get Tolbert at a trivial price in any given draft, making it easy to acquire him as your sixth or seventh wide receiver. Maybe more importantly, reports out of Dallas' training camp emphatically stated that Tolbert had turned a corner relative to previous years, and his role as Dallas' WR3 is in no doubt. Former Cowboy Noah Brown spent four seasons in obscurity on the bench before his familiarity with Dak Prescott finally paid off in the form of a starting role in his fifth season, and it appears Tolbert has reached a similar maturation point, only this time faster because he's a much better prospect than Brown was.
Jonnu Smith, TE, MIA
Smith was one of the most dominant pass-catching tight ends in college football history at Florida International, and he's also one of the most athletic tight ends in the NFL at 6-foot-3, 248 pounds (4.62-second 40-yard dash, 38-inch vertical jump, 127-inch broad jump). Unfortunately, his full fantasy potential has never been witnessed in the NFL for a variety of reasons – playing in low-volume passing games was one issue, and another is that Smith is such a good blocker that some coaches fail to notice that he's a much better pass catcher than they remember.
Mike McDaniel is not a donkey coach. Smith has pass-catching talents to this point untapped in the NFL, and if Smith is ever going to break out then it would make sense if it happens this year. The Dolphins will likely run a two-tight end base with Smith and blocking specialist Durham Smythe starting with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The Smythe detail is crucial – Smith's blocking will no doubt pay off for Miami at some point, but this is otherwise the first time in Smith's career where he wasn't the best blocker on the team. For once – for the first time since his historical career at Florida International – Smith might get full credit for his Pro Bowl-level pass-catching ability.
Alexander Mattison, RB, LV
As much as Mattison's 2023 season was a disaster in Minnesota, their decision to cut Mattison was likely an instance of scapegoating. For as much fuss was made about Mattison's struggles in short yardage last year, there's a curious failure to note the fact that he was constantly getting hit in the backfield. The Vikings run blocking was not good, and almost any running back would have struggled with the looks where things went most off the rails for Mattison in 2023.
Mattison is a below average starter but as a backup he's likely above average. No one complained about Mattison in his prior four seasons in Minnesota. In fact, there was even a brief moment where fanfiction was written about how Mattison might have been as good as then-starter Dalvin Cook, making Mattison one of the most popular handcuff running back picks over three years.
The case for Mattison's resurgence is simple: he's clearly not as bad as his numbers from 2023, and starting Las Vegas running back Zamir White is not clearly better than Mattison, In particular, Mattison offers much more anchor power than White, who's built rather upright and has a long history of injuries at Georgia. White is way faster than Mattison (~4.50 speed versus ~4.70 speed), but Mattison's power element might be enough to carve out about 20 snaps per game as a short-yardage/power specialist even when White is healthy. There's even a chance Mattison becomes the Raiders' primary passing-down back. Prior to 2023 Mattison was a very reliable passing-down back, both in terms of blocking and receiving. As much as rookie sixth-round pick Dylan Laube is clearly a better receiver yet, Laube might not project for much rushing usage consideration. If White were to miss any time, Mattison would be a candidate to see upwards of 40 snaps per game in an offense hellbent on running the ball all four quarters.
Greg Dulcich, TE, DEN
Dulcich's case is probably the most simple of the group in that, while he has failed to come through as a sleeper in either of his first two NFL seasons, the reason for that disappointment is pretty clearly due to injuries that occurred. Perhaps durability will never be in Dulcich's favor – even this offseason he was shaking off foot and hamstring issues – but if he does stay healthy his fantasy utility is pretty clear: Dulcich can't block, so if he's playing it's only to draw targets. If the snaps are there, so should be the targets, and the snaps should be there if Dulcich is healthy. As much as he's listed as the TE2 behind Adam Trautman on the Denver depth chart, this is basically a distortion because Trautman and Dulcich play different positions. Trautman being listed at TE1 basically is just to acknowledge that Trautman blocks and Dulcich does not – a distinction that doesn't matter to fantasy investors.
