After finishing as a top-4 running back last year, Joe Mixon's being selected in the top 8 at his position this seaosn. A consensus second-round pick the last few years, is he worth a first-round pick in 12-team leagues this year?
Upside
With the Bengals' offense becoming an elite unit last year, Mixon set career highs in rushing yards, receiving yards and touchdowns. He was incredible in scoring range, as he had 12 touchdowns Weeks 8-12, which included four consecutive games with two scores. With an upgraded offensive line, he could build on his 2021 production, even if he sees slightly less volume. He's also been durable, playing at least 14 games in four of five seasons, and at 25, he's still in his prime. It wouldn't be a surprise if Mixon finished as a top-3 running back again.
Downside
After Mixon had an incredible eight-week run that ended in Week 12, the Bengals turned into a pass-first team. As a result, he failed to reach 20 carries in any remaining game, and in the last five games, he failed to surpass 65 rushing yards while posting just 3.3 yards per carry. During the season, his biggest games came when he received at least 28 carries; it's possible he doesn't get that much use in many games this season. If Joe Burrow remains the focal point of the offense, Mixon is likely to perform as a top-12 running back, making him more of a second-round pick.
The Verdict
There's
After finishing as a top-4 running back last year, Joe Mixon's being selected in the top 8 at his position this seaosn. A consensus second-round pick the last few years, is he worth a first-round pick in 12-team leagues this year?
Upside
With the Bengals' offense becoming an elite unit last year, Mixon set career highs in rushing yards, receiving yards and touchdowns. He was incredible in scoring range, as he had 12 touchdowns Weeks 8-12, which included four consecutive games with two scores. With an upgraded offensive line, he could build on his 2021 production, even if he sees slightly less volume. He's also been durable, playing at least 14 games in four of five seasons, and at 25, he's still in his prime. It wouldn't be a surprise if Mixon finished as a top-3 running back again.
Downside
After Mixon had an incredible eight-week run that ended in Week 12, the Bengals turned into a pass-first team. As a result, he failed to reach 20 carries in any remaining game, and in the last five games, he failed to surpass 65 rushing yards while posting just 3.3 yards per carry. During the season, his biggest games came when he received at least 28 carries; it's possible he doesn't get that much use in many games this season. If Joe Burrow remains the focal point of the offense, Mixon is likely to perform as a top-12 running back, making him more of a second-round pick.
The Verdict
There's no denying Mixon's production last year, and that the Bengals' offense will continue to improve. However, his late-season use seems to be a trend that will continue, and that is enough for me to view him as a value outside the top-14 picks.
