This article is part of our Payne's Perspective series.
Does anyone remember that baseball and a full 162 games is locked and loaded to start this season? It seems as soon as there was an agreement reached between the owners and players, the NFL did it's best to overshadow that news with seemingly never-ending drama. Tom Brady isn't retiring, Aaron Rodgers likes Green Bay's money, Davante Adams likes Las Vegas' money and Deshaun Watson will play for a cold weather team if the guaranteed money is right. Let's look at these moves and the potential fantasy implications.
Aaron Rodgers Remains in Green Bay
Davante Adams' owners rejoiced in the Aaron Rodgers' news right up to the moment the Packers traded the wide receiver to Las Vegas. This is a hit to the value of both Rodgers and Adams for obvious reasons. We don't know how Adams will work with Derek Carr, and it leaves Rodgers without his favorite receiver. Adams leaves behind 169 targets in Green Bay (28 red-zone targets each of the last two seasons), so someone for the Packers is due to make a fantasy splash. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is testing the free agency waters, leaving Allen Lazard (a restricted free agent with a second-round tender) as the top receiver on the roster. The Packers are sure to address receiver through free agency and likely will use at least one high draft pick on the position. Someone in Green Bay has to catch the ball, and it's likely Lazard turns in a career year. The loss of Adams has Rodgers' arrow pointing down; it'll be logical if the Packers lean more on their running game this season.
Coinciding with Rodgers getting a downgrade, Davante Adams shouldn't come into the season with the same fantasy expectations of the last two seasons. Not only does he have a new offense to learn and a rapport to build with a new quarterback, but the most important factor is obviously the downgrade from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr. It's difficult to see Adams getting anywhere near the targets he got in Green Bay. Also, the Raiders' receiving corps is better than what it was for the Packers, meaning Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow are still going to command targets.
Russell Wilson is a Bronco
Speaking of the AFC West, in a matter of weeks it's gone from a good division to arguably the toughest division in the NFL. Russell Wilson's trade to Denver automatically increases the fantasy value of Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, creating a similar argument about the team's best fantasy receiver as last year's preseason debate over the Rams' Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. I prefer Jeudy over Sutton despite Jeudy coming off an injury season in which he did not top 80 receiving yards in any game. With Noah Fant headed to Seattle, look for Albert Okwuegbunam to be a top-12 option at tight end and be a good fantasy pick late in drafts. As far as the Seahawks go, it's tough to believe they'll enter the season with Drew Lock as the best option under center. The answer likely isn't in this draft, though Pete Carroll won't hesitate to go with a rookie over Lock if he finds a worthy option. The most likely scenario is the Seahawks take a flyer on a veteran through trade.
Buy JuJu Smith-Schuster
Of course I'd be happier if Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce weren't on the roster, but JuJu Smith-Schuster moving to Kansas City is an upgrade over any scenario in Pittsburgh this season. JuJu is only 25 and will have every motivation to have a big season playing on a one-year deal. It's easy to forget how much upside JuJu has — at age 21 he posted a 166-111-1,426-7 line for the Steelers. If anything were to happen to Tyreek Hill, look out.
Matt Ryan is a Colt
If I'm an Indianapolis fan, I'm not thrilled with this move. It's hard to know how much gas is left in the tank as Matt Ryan will be on the wrong side of 37 when the season starts. Is he that much of an upgrade over Carson Wentz? Perhaps not significantly at this stage of his career. But the scenario and setup for Ryan as a Colt is easily more ideal than what it was in Atlanta. Speaking of the Falcons, can you name the wide receiver at the top of their depth chart? Olamide Zaccheaus currently is in that prestigious spot, so look for the Falcons to address that position in the near future.
Marcus Mariota is a Falcon
The Falcons essentially had in place signing Marcus Mariota before trading Ryan to the Colts, and Mariota gets another shot at becoming a starting quarterback. Mariota is reunited with coach Arthur Smith, but outside of his rushing ability likely will have little value in standard 12-team leagues. Kyle Pitts likely will be over-drafted this season with the quarterback pairing despite the likelihood that he leads the Falcons in targets. As a whole, it's tough to see any decent fantasy value on the Atlanta roster, as of now.
The Saints Re-sign Jameis Winston
I actually think this was a good move for New Orleans given the landscape of the quarterback position. There really aren't a lot of great options in the draft and there a limited number of available quarterbacks who are competent starters. Jameis is familiar with the offense and the only hurdle is the presence of Taysom Hill. The Saints didn't pay Hill to sit on the sideline, so it's reasonable to expect him to play a handful of snaps every game. A healthy Mike Thomas would go a long way for Winston to become fantasy relevant on a weekly basis.
