NFL Week 16 Picks, Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

I was so sure of a number of things last week, but between last-second injury news, random bouts of monsoon-level weather and just inept coordinators (hey Joe Barry!), it was another week of ho-hum results.

It had never occurred to me to look ahead when doing these picks and see if weather could be a factor, but Nick Whalen and I had discussed that very concept on SiriusXM Monday, and I'll confess that it's certainly been an error in my process. I've always thought this article series would be used best as a resource to identify attractive plays once more information trickled out in the week, but the way the weather models are in today's day and age, it's a pretty easy identifier that could make a difference with a few of the over/unders in particular.

NFL Week 16 Betting Picks For Each Game

Predictions for NFL Week 16

In this article, we also take a look at NFL Week 16 odds and our predictions for each NFL game.

Home teams are listed last.

Week 15 Record ATS: 8-8
Week 15 Record on Totals: 8-8
Season Record ATS: 114-104-6
Season Record on Totals: 109-110-5

Saints vs. Rams

Over/under 1.5 mentions of when the referees gave the Rams a free trip to the Super Bowl back in 2019? While it might be a revenge games for Saints fans, I think Los Angeles is going to walk all over this team.

I don't think New Orleans has any positives going for it come Thursday, except that maybe on a short week this game could just get weird and ugly, which benefits Derek Carr. Even then, I'd be surprised if the Rams outright lose, although I'll confess I have zero clue how the point total shakes out.

Spread Pick: Rams -4

Total Pick: Under 45.5

Bengals vs. Steelers

It appears as if Mason Rudolph will get the start for the Steelers. I'm by no means a fan of Mitch Trubisky, but plugging in Rudolph isn't going to help matters much. Sure, he'll cut down on turnovers, but I think the opportunity to move the ball down the field also goes to the wayside with the festive new quarterback under center.

This really is going to be a major test for Jake Browning because I'd be interested in betting on the Bengals to win a playoff game if I could figure out what kind of passer he is. No Ja'Marr Chase (shoulder) is going to be a difficult situation to overcome, but we've seen someone like Gardner Minshew look totally fine even in adverse situations and against tougher defenses. We also saw Will Levis look really good to begin his career, only for defenses to sorta figure him out in the last few games. I never would have thought I'd type this sentence out so earnestly in the year 2023, but if Browning is more like Minshew than Levis, the Bengals could be really dangerous in the postseason.

Spread Pick: Bengals -2

Total Pick: Under 37

Bills vs. Chargers

I'm nervous because this is a massive spread for a team that many thought was one of the biggest disappointments of the NFL season just a month ago, and the toxic stench of Brandon Staley is no longer infecting the Chargers. That being said, I'm not anticipating Keenan Allen (heel) will play and the offense was already woefully thin of game-breaking receivers, making it a difficult leap in logic to assume Los Angeles can get three scores, which is what it'll take to cover the spread.

I'm perversely curious to see if the Chargers run defense, which has historically been one of the worst over Staley's tenure, will magically look better with him now gone. I don't think it works quite like that, but I'm not sure you can quantify the difference the locker room must feel with him now fired.

Spread Pick: Bills -11.5

Total Pick: Over 44

Colts vs. Falcons

I'd feel a lot better about this game if I knew Michael Pittman (concussion) was going to play, but at the end of a day it's a bet on head coach Arthur Smith's ineptitude, which feels like a winning bet most weeks.

There's such a gulf between Smith and Indy HC Shane Steichen that even with a backup quarterback, backup running back and possibly backup wide receiver, I have complete faith Gardner Minshew and company could string together more positive-outcome drives than three skill players drafted in the top 10, and one of the highest-paid backup QBs in the league. What a crazy NFL world we live in today.

Spread Pick: Colts +1

Total Pick: Under 44.5

Packers vs. Panthers

The over is a pretty comfortable lock, and I can guarantee you can get great prop bet plays for both Bryce Young, who is going to look like a quality No. 1 overall pick for the first time this season, and also Chuba Hubbard, who is going to get at minimum 100 rushing yards in this contest.

What I'm not certain about is if the Packers can cover the spread. I think they'll win (and loyal readers can remind me that I was equally confident in that result last week too), but it's a pretty awkward spread to the point where it's probably best to just buy an alternate option and toss it into a same-game parlay if you really feel certain Green Bay was going to look competent for once.

Spread Pick: Packers -5

Total Pick: Over 36.5

Browns vs. Texans

Evidently C.J. Stroud won't play in this one, which I find a bit strange. In a league that has seen so many players return from concussion protocol in less than a week, it's a bit shocking the Rookie of the Year shoe-in will miss his second consecutive game while the Texans still have a legitimate shot at not just a playoff berth, but a divisional crown.

Those hopes will end this week if Stroud can't play, as I think the Cleveland defense is going to present far more of an issue to backup Case Keenum than Tennessee did last Sunday.

Spread Pick: Browns -2.5

Total Pick: Over 40

Lions vs. Vikings

I love the over on the total, especially if you throw it into a teaser and bring the number down a bit, but otherwise this is a complete stay away for me.

I believe the Lions are the better team and I think they will cruise through a rejuvenated Brian Flores defense no problem. But even the most reckless of bettors should be anxious putting money on the assumption Detroit will actually look as good as they're capable of being, especially in a raucous environment.

The same can be said for Nick Mullens and the Vikings offense for what it's worth. I was surprised with how well they performed last week, but at least a half-dozen of Mullens' passes could have just as easily been intercepted or dropped in my estimation. I'm not normally one to chalk those events up to flukiness because over the course of the season I feel like it all evens out, but when it's a career backup like Mullens, the odds would say he's not throwing for 300 yards and a near 80 percent completion percentage again, even against a hapless defense like Detroit's.

Spread Pick: Lions -3.5

Total Pick: Over 47

Commanders vs. Jets

What an absolute miserable game. I don't care if it's Aaron Rodgers (all but assured to not happen), Zach Wilson (possibly not available) or Trevor Siemian (worst outcome for everyone but Jets fans rooting for a better pick), there's just no redeeming quality for this game.

For what it's worth, I think the Commanders win this one, but I will happily pretend as if this game simply doesn't exist come Christmas Eve.

Spread Pick: Washington +3

Total Pick: Under 37.5

Seahawks vs. Titans

It sounds as if we could get Ryan Tannehill back under center with Will Levis suffering from a reported high-ankle sprain. I've given up trying to figure out what a high-ankle sprain actually is, but if it is the veteran returning under center, my preseason parlay that includes the Titans winning six games this season will have absolutely no chance of hitting.

I assume Geno Smith will be back next Sunday, but I was really impressed with how Drew Lock managed the game in Monday's win. It's so annoying that we have to re-rank these backup quarterbacks every week, but those were ugly conditions and he held strong even though the Eagles pass defense is far from vaunted at this point.

Spread Pick: Seahawks -2.5

Total Pick: Under 42

Jaguars vs. Buccaneers

This is another game that I want absolutely no part of. I wish I had signed up for a confidence pick pool this year because I always enjoy the strategy behind those leagues, but this is a perfect example of why it'd be so infuriating to figure out this season.

Jacksonville's offense is droningly dull that, and while I believe they have immense talent at just about every skill position, it's still a ho-hum unit. Meanwhile Baker Mayfield essentially has a three-target tree and the Buccaneers defense has regressed significantly since the Super Bowl a few years back, but they know what they're capable of and they can beat bad teams like we saw last week.

Spread Pick: Buccaneers +1

Total Pick: Over 43.5

Cardinals vs. Bears

It's possible we could have some weather in this Windy City matchup, but if the conditions are relatively fine than I feel reasonably confident the Cardinals won't just cover the spread; they'll win outright.

I know the Bears have played much better than I anticipated this past month or so, but we're three years into the Justin Fields experiment and I still don't think Chicago has any idea what they want him to be on a week-to-week basis. Theoretically they should be able to pass the ball easily against this porous secondary, or Fields could have an insane day on the ground, but that I have no idea how they'll attack a team as bad as Arizona just speaks volumes to the disconcerting gameplan week in and week out.

Meanwhile Chicago's defense I think will struggle to contain Kyler Murray, whose athleticism is going to be an issue, as is the continual chemistry with second-year tight end Trey McBride.

Spread Pick: Cardinals +4

Total Pick: Over 44.5

Cowboys vs. Dolphins

I hope this game lives up to its billing. On the surface, there's no reason to expect it won't. I'm going to keep an eye on Zack Martin's status throughout the week (quadriceps), but I'm anticipating Tyreek Hill (ankle) will be fine for this one.

Dak Prescott's MVP bid always seemed farfetched to me since Dallas poured on most of its production over the past month and half against embarrassingly bad defenses, but they have been legitimately good regardless of the inferior competition. A bunch of pile-on stats shouldn't put you in position to win the most prestigious award in the NFL, but that also doesn't mean the Cowboys have been some sort of propped up offensive scrubs either. Miami's defense surely won't present much of an issue, and you'd assume the weather in South Florida will ensure the whole playbook will be open in this one.

So then it comes down to whether you believe Tua Tagovailo and the Dolphins will look good against a legitimately balanced and dangerous team, something they haven't shown against any such opponent in the two years since Mike McDaniels has taken things over. I happen to think the Dolphins could simply be due for a good-luck outcome in these sort of games by default, but I'm not sure it comes this week. Call it a gut feeling, but after getting embarrassed against a more rugged Bills team, I don't see Raheem Mostert pulling a James Cook and gashing Dallas' defense for a second consecutive week. 

Spread Pick: Cowboys +1.5

Total Pick: Under 51

Patriots vs. Broncos

It's frustrating because I imagine this will likely be the most-watched game Christmas Eve if only because most of the travel and family adventures happen throughout the course of the day.

I understand Patriots fans don't want the indignation of having a second game flexed out of primetime, but if I was to pick another team to pull off the 45-cent ticket stunt that the Panthers did last week, New England would be among my top five guesses.

I do love the over, especially if you can tease it down a bit. The Patriots can probably get a score or two, and I feel incredibly confident the Broncos can put up something close to 20 points. That won't make me care about this game whatsoever, but it's at least a nice nightcap on an otherwise tricky gambling day.

Spread Pick: Broncos -6.5

Total Pick: Over 34

Raiders vs. Chiefs

I initially had the Raiders covering just given this is such a large spread, but then I thought it through. For the Chiefs to struggle on Christmas Day against this Raiders team would be truly surprising, no matter how frustrating the Kansas City offense has looked since early November. 

This just isn't a game that Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes lose, nor is it an opponent that they'd struggle against in primetime.

Spread Pick: Chiefs -10

Total Pick: Over 41.5

Giants vs. Eagles

This is going to be a get-right game for the Eagles. I know I alluded to that last week, but I didn't anticipate dreadful conditions and Jalen Hurts looking like he wanted to hurl for four quarters in Seattle.

We're thankfully done with one annoying quarterback story in New York, but we're well past the point of Tommy DeVito being a funny quip anymore. Nothing makes me roll my eyes faster than the cut to DeVito's agent, who somehow has become the second most well-known agent outside of Scott Boras, at least based on my limited expertise.

Spread Pick: Eagles -11.5

Total Pick: Over 43

Ravens vs. 49ers

This is our reward as football fans for hearing the words "Tommy Cutlets" three times too many Monday afternoon.

I don't think the Ravens are really close to the level of San Fran. Frankly, I don't think any team is. I'm just hoping it'll be a competitive game regardless selfishly as a football fan.

Spread Pick: 49ers -5

Total Pick: Over 46.5

NFL Week 16 Best Bets

In hindsight, the Bills/Cowboys was such an obvious outcome, but I went all in on Mike McCarthy and the 'Boys in last week's best bets. Five straight weeks of positive plays just completely blown away thanks to Dallas' inability to stop James Cook. Ugh. A 3-7-1 record won't be good enough future weeks, but we'll aim to turn things around this week. While I'm obligated to pick against the spread above, the best bets section highlights my favorite leans and also tries to take advantage of a few of the parlay props offered as of this writing.

BetMGM Best Bets for NFL Week 16

BetMGM offers some of the best odds available for Week 16. If you're not signed up at BetMGM yet, new players at BetMGM can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet worth up to $1,000. Here are our NFL best bets for Week 16 at BetMGM.

• Seahawks moneyline (-140)
• Cowboys moneyline (+105)

Caesars Sportsbook Best Bets for NFL Week 16

Caesars Sportsbook also has great betting odds for NFL Week 16. If you are not registered yet, use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code ROTOFULL for a first bet on Caesars.

• Four-team seven-point totals teaser (+180) -- over 36.5 for BUF/LAC, over 29.5 for GB/CAR, over 27.5 for NE/DEN, over 40 for MIN/DET

WynnBET Best Bets for NFL Week 16

WynnBet has a strong menu of NFL Week 16 wagers to choose from, along with competitive odds. Sign up with the WynnBET promo code XROTO for up to $100 in free bets if you have yet to register at WynnBet.

• Three-team underdog parlay (+1,268) -- Cowboys moneyline, Commanders moneyline and Cardinals moneyline

DraftKings Best Bets for NFL Week 16

 DraftKings Sportsbook has special offers for new users just in time for Week 16 of the NFL season. here are our best picks available at DraftKings Sportsbook this week.

• Weekly Special for GB/CAR (+275) -- Chubba Hubbard 80+ rushing yards and Adam Thielen 40+ receiving yards
• Packers first drive equals score of some kind (+195) -- Yes 

FanDuel Best Bets for NFL Week 16

One of the most popular sportsbooks available is FanDuel Sportsbook. Let's take a look at our favorite betting picks with FanDuel odds.

• Under 20.5 first-half total between CLE/HOU (-120)
• Over 0.5 Panthers first-half touchdowns (-138)

BetRivers Best Bets for NFL Week 16

BetRivers is an up-and-coming and underrated sportsbook, and they are offering up to $500 in second-chance bets with the BetRivers bonus code. Bettors can use those for these picks on NFL Week 16.

• Eagles first-half spread -6.5 (-124)

PointsBet Best Bets for NFL Week 16

For bettors looking for a unique way to wager, try the PointsBet promo code for our Week 3 NFL picks. You can try "PointsBetting" for Week 16 to maximize your return.

• Colts moneyline (+100)
• Packers -4.5 (-110)

Look ahead at the NFL Week 17 odds as well, if you're interested in getting ahead of the line movement.