Last week was relatively harmless in Survivor, unless you had the Eagles, in which case you probably aren't reading. The Eagles were our third-favorite pick. In retrospect, perhaps we didn't sufficiently respect that it was a prime-time division game on the road. Still, it's surprising the Eagles couldn't run on the Giants.
In my pool, 15 were eliminated (12 on the Eagles). Of the original 451 entrants, 107 remain (23.7 percent).
On to Week 7.
Those unfamiliar with our strategy should start by reading here and here, or for a more concise explanation, read Week 1's article.
Ownership percentages below come from Yahoo. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHIEFS | Raiders | 46.7% | 637.5 | 86.4% | 6.33 |
| Patriots | TITANS | 22.0% | 292.5 | 74.5% | 5.61 |
| BEARS | Saints | 15.5% | 225 | 69.2% | 4.75 |
| Steelers | BENGALS | 5.8% | 250 | 71.4% | 1.67 |
| Packers | CARDINALS | 2.3% | 292.5 | 74.5% | 0.59 |
| BRONCOS | Giants | 2.3% | 292.5 | 74.5% | 0.58 |
| Panthers | JETS | 1.9% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.87 |
| SEAHAWKS | Texans | 1.3% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.49 |
| BROWNS | Dolphins | 0.4% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.17 |
| Eagles | VIKINGS | 0.3% | 120 | 54.5% | 0.14 |
| 49ERS | Falcons | 0.3% | 120 | 54.5% | 0.12 |
| Rams | Jaguars* | 0.2% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.10 |
| LIONS | Buccaneers | 0.2% | 225 | 69.2% | 0.06 |
| Commanders | COWBOYS | 0.1% | 120 | 54.5% | 0.03 |
| CHARGERS | Colts | 0.1% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.02 |
Home teams in CAPS
*Rams vs. Jaguars at London
There is a small pot-odds play this week. The Patriots, Packers and Broncos are tied for the second-best Vegas odds at 74.5 percent, behind the Chiefs' 86.4 percent. While the difference in ownership between the Chiefs and Patriots is not large enough for a pot-odds play, it is large enough with the Packers and Broncos, both of whom are at 2.3 percent (vs. the Chiefs' 46.7).
However, after doing the math, of which we'll spare you (check out last week's math class if you are unfamiliar) , the reward ratio is just slightly better than the risk ratio — 2.1 vs. 2.0. So, if the Packers or Broncos are available and you are as confident about either as you are of the Chiefs, then it behooves you, however slightly, to fade the Chiefs in favor of one of those. But most Survivors have probably used the Packers, and the Broncos aren't close to the lock that the Chiefs are, in our opinion. In fact, the Broncos are our Notable Omission this week.
All that said, it's still not crazy to take the Patriots and hope for the Chiefs to lose, even though strictly speaking the risk outweighs the reward. The Titans (NE's opponent) is just that bad.
MY PICKS
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs looked much better in their win against the Lions last week and now get back Rashee Rice following his suspension. The Raiders are coming off a win, but it was against the Titans and Las Vegas' offense didn't do much. Kansas City's defense held in check a Detroit offense last week that is light years better than the Raiders'.
New England Patriots
The Patriots face the reeling Titans. Tennessee fired its coach this week after getting dominated by the Raiders. The Titans haven't been competitive in any game this year, aside from their lone win, which took a miracle — actually, two miracles. Cam Ward, who has the lowest completion percentage in the league, has no one to throw to behind a terrible offensive line and now Calvin Ridley is gimpy. The Titans could try to ride Tony Pollard all day, except the Patriots allow just 3.5 yard per rush, third in the league. The Patriots are on the road, but that plays into their favor as well with coach Mike Vrabel returning to the city that saw him make the playoffs three times in six years and win NFL Coach of the Year in 2021, only to get fired after the 2023 season. He won't say it, of course, but you know Vrabel wants to to stick it to the Titans.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers, facing the injury-riddled Cardinals, would be more popular this week if most Survivors hadn't used them last week. Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. could be out for Arizona. Even if both play, this is not a good team. After beating the lowly Saints and Panthers to open the year, the Cardinals have lost four in a row — each by four points or less as they are incapable of winning close games. The Packers should take care of business.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Go read what it says at the top of this article about last week's Eagles-Giants game. Perhaps we're again giving short shrift to a prime-time division game with the betting favorite on the road. The biggest difference, though, is the Bengals are one of the worst teams in the league on both sides of the ball.
Chicago Bears
The Bears are perhaps surprisingly the third-most popular Survivor team this week. It probably has more to do with their opponent, New Orleans, and that the game is in Chicago. Theoretically, the Bears shouldn't have much trouble with the Saints, but Caleb Williams is capable of some mind-numbingly bad throws from time to time, so it's possible this one is closer than it should be.
NOTABLE OMISSION:
Denver Broncos
The Broncos are tied for Vegas' second-biggest favorite this week, at home against a Giants team that a) isn't as good as Denver and b) could be primed for a letdown after a huge division win last week on Thursday night. However, the Giants had extra time to prepare while the Broncos returned this week from London. Those are big enough considerations to make one pause. It would make sense if the Broncos took this one for granted, while the Giants play with a newfound upset-minded belief in themselves.
