After a relatively quiet Week 8 schedule due to bye weeks, there will be 28 teams taking the field in Week 9. Roles continue to change and evolve, but there was a tough break Friday morning when it was announced that Jacksonville Jagues rookie WR/CB Travis Hunter was being placed on the Reserve/Injured list with a knee injury. He was originally included as a pick in this article, and he appeared to be on the path to a breakout. There are still plenty of interesting projections on Underdog, so let's jump in.
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Higher
Jared Goff vs. MIN – higher than 240.5 receiving yards
Perhaps it's a small sample fluke, but the Vikings have struggled mightily defending the pass in the last three games. Both Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts and LA Chargers QB Justin Herbert picked apart the defense (14.17 and 9.08 YPA, respectively) and threw for three touchdowns apiece. Goff may not be on their same level from a skill perspective, but the game will be in a dome, and he'll have the benefit of throwing to all of Detroit's typical playmakers.
Tyler Warren at PIT – higher than 54.5 receiving yards
Bonus Pick: Roman Wilson vs. IND – higher than 14.5 receiving yards
The Steelers-Colts matchup could turn into an offensive shootout. Pittsburgh has been vulnerable on a per-target basis to both opposing wide receivers and tight ends, so Indy WRs Michael Pittman and Josh Downs are also viable selections. To put some numbers to this selection, the Steelers have allowed 9.10 yards per target to opposing tight ends (third-highest in the league). The primary risk with any Colt is that the targets will be spread too evenly, but Warren is in a very good position come Sunday.
The Colts' secondary isn't performing poorly, but game script has caused them to see the most targets to opposing wide receivers this season. DK Metcalf is the obvious choice, but Wilson is intriguing. Wilson has spiked his route rate to over 50 percent in each of the last two games, after being at roughly 25 percent in each of the first five contests. In a game we should expect the Steelers to chase points, Wilson should be involved once again.
Kimani Vidal at TEN – higher than 77.5 rushing yards
The NFL is impossible to predict sometimes, and Vidal's projection being set at 77.5 rushing yards in Week 8 might be the best example. That projection is deserved, however, as Vidal has taken advantage of rookie RB Omarion Hampton's absence by rushing for 261 yards across three games. Hassan Haskins hasn't posed much of a threat to Vidal's role, and he enters Sunday at less than full health having not practiced Wednesday or Thursday. Also important is that the Chargers should be playing from ahead, giving Vidal the chance to rack up volume.
Marvin Harrison at DAL – higher than 56.5 receiving yards
It's hard to feel good about the Cardinals' offense given their inconsistency all season and questions about QB Kyler Murray's health. Even so, a matchup against the Cowboys jumps off the page for any offense, as the secondary has allowed the highest yards per target mark in the league (9.99) and second most total yards. Playing solely the matchup is dangerous, but this is a great spot for Arizona.
Lower
Bo Nix at HOU – lower than 206.5 passing yards
Nix has shown a lot in the last two games, and he has popped up for some big performances this season. He has easily surpassed this projection four times in the last five games, so the recent trends, and even Nix's showings this season, suggest this is the wrong selection. It's not quite that simple, though, as Nix is walking into one of the tougher matchups around the league on Sunday. The Texans are in the top-5 defensively in terms of limiting yards per attempt, attempts and completions. Nix's own splits are also telling. In 25 total regular-season games in his career, Nix has averaged 7.17 yards per attempt at home and 6.16 yards per attempt on the road.
Bijan Robinson at NE – lower than 17.55 fantasy points (0.5 PPR scoring)
Robinson is one of the best backs in the league, but this is still a startling projection. The Patriots have allowed an average of 14.6 half-PPR points to opposing backfields this season, and only one individual back has surpassed this projection (De'Von Achane in Week 2). Robinson has the talent and involvement as a pass catcher to make this projection look silly, but this is also taking into account the Falcons' inconsistency as an offense overall.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs. SEA – lower than 43.5 rush yards
Croskey-Merritt has displayed the inconsistency we'd expect to see from a seventh-round rookie, and he's struggled to deliver strong results even with increased volume in the last few weeks. More importantly, the Seahawks are a clear matchup to avoid at this point in the season. The unit hasn't allowed a running back to amass higher than 50 rushing yards since Week 1 (Christian McCaffrey), and no back has topped this projection since Week 2. Croskey-Merritt doesn't look like the back to change that trend.
Romeo Doubs vs. CAR – lower than 6.5 targets
Doubs has emerged as the Packers' top wide receiver in terms of consistently drawing targets, but there are some noteworthy observations based on who has been available in the Green Bay receiving corps. When WR Jayden Reed was healthy (Weeks 1 and 2), Doubs saw only four and five targets, respectively. In three of four games thereafter, Doubs saw at least eight targets. Last week, when WR Christian Watson returned, Doubs saw his targets drop to six.
In addition, the Packers aren't likely to need to throw the ball to win this game, setting them up to play a slow pace while pounding the ball on the ground for much of the second half
