We've reached a pivotal point in the NFL season, with the fantasy playoffs about to kick off and the push for the playoffs in full affect around the league. The process for making selections in this article has become relatively straightforward as individual player usage is pretty well set for most teams, as are team's strengths and witnesses.
For those looking to research picks of their own, these resources are particularly useful:
Individual player stats - https://www.rotowire.com/football/player-stats.php?view=receiving
Defense vs. Position stats- https://www.rotowire.com/football/defense-vs-pos.php?scoringtype=ppr
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Higher
Jordan Mason vs. WAS - higher than 35.5 rushing yards
Aaron Jones has bounced back quicker than expected from a shoulder injury, and the veteran will play Sunday against the Commanders, but there are still a lot of paths to Mason having a solid showing. The matchup is a good place to start. The Commanders have been a bottom-10 defense as measured by yards per carry allowed to opposing backs, but the defense has deteriorated further in recent weeks. In the last four weeks, the Commanders have allowed 5.46 yards per carry, with only the Giants posting a worse number in that span.
Then, there's the Jones factor. He has left an inordinate number of games early during his career, and there's minimal chance he's entering this weekend's matchup truly healthy. That could lead to a higher chance of aggravation, or it could cause the Vikings to give Mason more work than we've seen in recent weeks.
Jakobi Meyers vs IND - higher than 50.5 receiving yards
This is a huge game for the AFC South and the AFC playoff picture as a whole, and targets should condense in the Jacksonville offense. Parker Washington (hip) could be sidelined, and he is likely to be limited even if he plays. While Brian Thomas is the explosive playmaker, Meyers has quickly emerged as the steady and favorite target of Trevor Lawrence. Since landing with Jacksonville, Meyers has earned at least six targets in three of four games while reaching this projection every game in that span. This matchup has the feel of a potential offensive shootout, and Meyers should play a big role.
Terry McLaurin at MIN - higher than 9.45 fantasy points
McLaurin wasted no time making his mark in his return to the Washington offense, commanding 14 targets against a tough Denver defense in Week 13. Even with Marcus Mariota under center, McLaurin put together a solid stat line. Jayden Daniels is expected to be back in Week 14 in an easier matchup, and Daniels should rely heavily on McLaurin in his return.
Jack Bech vs. DEN – higher than 20.5 receiving yards
Selecting the higher for Bech and the lower for his quarterback isn't intuitive, but this projection is so low that both can hit. Bech has had a nonexistent role in the Raiders' offense this season, but with Dont'e Thornton (concussion) sidelined and Jakobi Meyers out of the picture, Bech should have the chance to step up. There was even confirmation of that Friday, when head coach Pete Carroll stated that Bech will be involved "a lot."
Harold Fannin vs. TEN – higher than 37.5 receiving yards
Shedeur Sanders may have injected some energy into the Browns' offense and potentially the team as a whole. Fannin, however, is the only skill-position player who has seen a statistical benefit. In Sanders' two starts, Fannin has earned 11 targets and picked up 83 yards. Those numbers aren't all that impressive, but there is rapport between the duo. Helping Fannin's case further is that David Njoku has essentially been taken off the field, leaving more opportunity for Fannin.
While there is less rapport between Sanders and Jerry Jeudy, Jeudy has a modest projection (30.5 receiving yards) that is also worth considering.
Lower
Geno Smith vs. DEN – lower than 205.5 passing yards
There are some picks that require extensive research, and some stand out immediately. This one falls into the latter category. Smith's struggles have been well documented this season, and he's averaging a career-low 6.7 yards per attempt. Now, he's facing one of the toughest matchups in the league, as the Broncos have allowed the third-fewest yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks. That's a worthwhile combination to exploit.
Joe Burrow at BUF – lower than 253.5 passing yards
It's never comfortable picking against Burrow due to both his talent and because the Cincinnati offense runs entirely through him when he's healthy. That sets up strength against strength, as the Buffalo defense has faced the fewest pass attempts this season, primarily due to its offense's ability to maintain possession. The Bills should be effective with that strategy, given the poor Cincinnati defense, effectively limiting Burrow's volume. It's also fair to expect some remaining rust to plague Burrow, leading to the lower selection this week.
Kirk Cousins vs. SEA – lower than 200.5 passing yards
Kirk Cousins is auditioning for a chance to regain a starting role around the league, but things haven't gone particularly well. He's averaged only 6.3 yards per attempt, and the Falcons haven't shown much confidence in his ability to lead the team's offense. He's attempted only 56 passes in two games since taking the full-time starting role over for the inured Michael Penix (knee), including an overtime contest in Week 13. Those factors combined are already enough of a reason to be skeptical of Cousins' outlook, and that's without adding in the matchup against one of the best defenses in the league. The Seahawks have allowed only 5.31 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks this season, only adding to the concerns for the Atlanta offense and Cousins specifically.
