This article is part of our NFL DFS Pick 'Em series.
We've reached the final game of the 2024 NFL season as Super Bowl Sunday approaches. As has been the case all season, we'll break down some of our favorite selections for Underdog's Pick'Em contests.
Higher
Travis Kelce – higher than 0.5 receiving yards + higher than 6.5 receptions
In most cases, it's not wise to rely on a sample so small as three postseason contests, but the stats lay out clearly that opponents have used their tight end to attack the Eagles' defense. Three teams (Buffalo and Washington in addition to Philly) have played in three postseason games. Of those three, Philadelphia has surrendered 36 targets to opposing tight ends, double that of both the Bills and Commanders. Of course, that pairs very well with Kelce who has proven capable of being the centerpiece of the KC offense down the stretch.
Even if you don't buy that case for Kelce, UD is offering a promo for Super Bowl week, slashing Kelce's receiving prop to just 0.5 yards. Be sure to take advantage.
Xavier Worthy – higher than 66.5 rushing + receiving yards
Worthy has essentially had two seasons within his rookie year, but he's become a key player in the Chiefs' offense – at times leading the skill-position units. Across his last nine games, Worthy has topped this mark five times, three of which have come in his last four contests. It is worth considering taking only Worthy's receiving yards prop (56.5 yards), though his involvement in short passes near the line of scrimmage that could be credited as rushing attempts makes me willing to take the higher yardage total in order to capture Worthy's total involvement in the offense.
Dallas Goedert – higher than 52.5 receiving yards
Since returning from injury in Week 18, Goedert has been arguably the Eagles' most consistent pass catcher. He has at least six targets and 55 yards in three of those four games, often times overshadowing DeVonta Smith in the offense. Meanwhile, the Chiefs haven't defended opposing tight ends particularly well throughout the season, making both Goedert's recent track record and the matchup advantageous.
Lower
DeVonta Smith – lower than 51.5 receiving yards or lower than 9.25 fantasy points
Taking the "lower" on Smith's prop is correlated to Goedert's over, as the duo have taken opportunities away from each other throughout the season. In the six games that both Goedert and Smith played during the regular season, Smith averaged only 57.67 receiving yards and 0.33 touchdowns per game. In games, without Goedert, those marks were 69.57 and 0.86, respectively. While also factoring in Goedert's extensive involvement in the postseason discussed above, we shouldn't expect a big performance for Smith.
Isiah Pacheco – lower than 22.5 rushing yards
We've seen players struggle to return from serious leg injuries in the past, with the likes of Tank Dell and Tony Pollard losing their explosiveness for lengthy periods after returning to the field. The same seems currently happening to Pacheco, who has six or fewer carries in each of his last three games. Kareem Hunt has instead operated as the lead back, and there isn't much reason to expect that to change.
