This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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NFL Odds and Key Line Moves for Wild Card Weekend
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14 and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.
NFL Wild Card Weekend Odds
Wild Card Weekend Schedule
Saturday, Jan. 11
#5 Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 at #4 Houston Texans O/U 44.0 (Chargers -3.0, O/U 42.5)
#6 Pittsburgh Steelers at #3 Baltimore Ravens -10.0 O/U 46.0 (Ravens -10.0 O/U 43.5)
Sunday, Jan. 12
#7 Denver Broncos at #2 Buffalo Bills -8.5 O/U 47.0 (Bills -8.5 O/U 47.5)
#7 Green Bay Packers at #2 Philadelphia Eagles -4.0 O/U 46.0 (Eagles -4.5 O/U 45.5)
#6 Washington Commanders at #3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 O/U 49.5 (Bucs -3.0 O/U 50.5)
Monday, Jan. 13
#5 Minnesota Vikings -2.5 at #4 Los Angeles Rams O/U 47.0 (Vikings -1.5 O/U 46.5)
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Los Angeles Chargers 
at Houston Texans 
The Chargers opened as -2.5 point road favorites and the line jumped to -3.0 which is a key number. The total has dropped from 44.0 to 42.5 which is important because it went past the key number of 43. The Texans strong defense and struggling offense along with the Chargers inconsistent offense are the reasons for the total dropping and I think we could still see it decline further.
Trends
- The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
- The Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall
- The Texans are 5-2 at home during wild card weekend
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 out of Houston's 8 games at home
- Road favorites between 0-3 points are 8-2 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 playoff games
Key Injuries
Chargers - NA
Texans - WR Tank Dell (O), WR Stefon Diggs (O)
Weather - Indoors
Pittsburgh Steelers 
at Baltimore Ravens 
The Ravens opened at -10.0 and the spread has bounced between -9.5 and -10.0 for the home favorites against their divison rival the Steelers. The real movement has come on the total that opened 46.0 and quickly dropped to 45.0 before sharply dipping again to 43.5. The recent performance of the Ravens' defense combined with the struggles of the Steelers offense is the cause for the drop on the total.
Trends
- Home favorites of 10 or more points are 17-3 SU, but 12-7-1 ATS in the playoffs in the last 20 games
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Baltimore's last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh
- The Steelers are 0-5 in their last 5 playoff games
- Baltimore is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home
Key Injuries
Steelers -
Ravens - WR Zay Flowers (Q)
Weather - 29 degrees with 21 percent chance of precipitation
Denver Broncos 
at Buffalo Bills 
The Bills opened as -8.5 point home favorites and moved to -9.0 and -9.5 before falling back to -8.5. This number is significant when it comes to teasers because you can move the Bills down to -2.5 on a 6 point teaser.
The total has bounced around from 47.0 to 47.5 which seems extremely high for this matchup, but the Bills offense combined with the Broncos road defense has pushed this number up.
Trends
- Buffalo has scored at least 30 points in 12 games this season
- The Bills have committed just eight turnovers which ties the 2019 Saints for the fewest in a season
- Buffalo is 26-4 SU, but 16-13-1 ATS in their last 30 home games as favorites of 7 points or more
- The total has gone OVER in 5 out of the last 6 Broncos road games
- Home favorites of 7 or more points are 18-2 SU, but 11-9 ATS in the playoffs in the last 20 games
Key Injuries
Broncos - None
Bills - None
Weather - 28 degrees with 13 percent chance of snow
Green Bay Packers 
at Philadelphia Eagles 
The Eagles opened as -4.0 point home favorites, and the line climbed to -4.5, -5.0, and peaked at -5.5 before seeing a sharp line move back down to -4.5. The total opened 46.0 and it has dropped to 45.5. The quarterback situations on both sides is undecided, but both Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts should start.
Trends
- The total has gone OVER in 11 of Green Bay's last 15 games on the road
- Philadelphia is 7-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
- Philadelphia is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
Key Injuries
Packers - WR Christian Watson (O), QB Jordan Love (Q)
Eagles - QB Jalen Hurts (Q)
Weather - 36 degrees with 3 percent chance of precipitation
Washington Commanders 
at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
The Bucs opened as -2.5 point home favorites and it immediately went to -3.0 and peaked at -3.5 before coming back down to -3.0. This has all the making of a shootout with the total opening at 49.5 and then lifting to 50.5.
Trends
- Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
- Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
Key Injuries
Commanders - None
Bucs - None
Weather - 52 degrees with 3 percent chance of precipitation
Minnesota Vikings 
at Los Angeles Rams 
With the playoffs, you are not likely to see significant line movement unless there is an in week injury or significant weather concerns. The Vikings opened -2.5 point road favorites but money has come in on the Rams and the line moved to -2.0 before going back up to -2.5, but then there were several moves on the line yesterday to -2.0, -1.5, and now sits at Vikings -1.0.
The total opened at 47.0 and is still at 47.0.
Trends
- Minnesota is 9-1 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in its last 10 games
- LA Rams are 5-1 ATS and SU in their last 6 games
- Road favorites between 0-3 points are 8-2 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 playoff games
Key Injuries
Vikings - QB Sam Darnold (Q), RB Aaron Jones (Q)
Rams - RB Blake Corum (O)
Weather - Indoors
