This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
49ers -3.5 vs 
Cowboys 1538 picks, 676 net
Rams +4 vs 
Eagles 1475 picks, 706 net
Bills -5 vs 
Jaguars 1275 picks, 1025 net
Dolphins -11.5 vs 
Giants 1274 picks, 977 net
Falcons -1.5 vs 
Texans 1244 picks, 50 net
The Texans-Falcons game was a huge battleground here as Houston was the 6th most popular selection on the board. The Jags were also a trendy non-consensus choice with 1025 picks.
Four of the top five picks are home teams, and the Bills are on a neutral field in London. My partner in crime in the Circa pool is in London now (not for the game), and reports back he has seen Bills "kits" (hey, it's England) everywhere. Hopefully the local pubs protect their tables. The Jags had the extra week to acclimate to the time change, and even though we have no history on this, it feels like….something. Maybe a point of value in the spread? The Bills have played three straight lights out games and sit atop the DVOA overall leaderboard, while Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs have exploded.
The Eagles sit at 4-0 but have underwhelmed in some respects. Plus Cooper Kupp returns to give Matthew Stafford a great second option to All World wideout Puka Nacua. Does Kupp get his breakfast gig back or has that gone to Puka as well? The Eagles pass defense has looked suspect, which perhaps is the angle here on the Rams picks.
As for the "chalk," the Giants look absolutely hideous at everything. Plus there is a shade of line value as the Dolphins have gone up to -12.5 as of Saturday night. It is always tough to give double digits, but the Dolphins offense has looked untoppable against everyone but the Bills.
The popularity of the Niners is perhaps the most unexpected top choice on the board. They look best-in-league great in every which way so far, no question. The Cowboys are a tough team to get a real read on though. They have had three blowouts filled with turnovers and defensive and special teams scores. The offense has had a big positive game script and short fields over and over again, so the efficiency and yards per play stats perhaps do not tell us everything.
We went with all favorites this week.
- Falcons -1.5
Ravens -4
Bengals -3
Broncos -2
Chiefs -4
I thought we might sit on an island with the Falcons pick, but instead it got big play on both sides. The Falcons try to grind everyone into submission with Bijan Robinson and their big running game and then play some tight defense. Can they hold off CJ Stroud and a shockingly explosive offense, or at least keep them off the field enough? That is the hope.
Broncos-Jets features the worst four-week DVOA defense ever against Zach Wilson at altitude. Something has to give. We got plowed with the Bengals as short favorites at Tennessee last week, so why go back to the well and cross fingers that Joe Burrow finds some magic calf muscle elixir in the Arizona desert? We are banking that the urgency of a Bengals season on the verge of combusting will get Cincy rolling.
Week 4 Review
It was Week 4 prize time, and unfortunately out 11-8-1 mark did not quite get us into the money tier.
Contest entrants overall had a meh Week 4. The group as a whole hit at a 50.93% clip, the lowest mark this season.
The consensus choices went a respectable 9-7, but the winners were mostly the less popular picks. Just adding up the number of selections on the consensus choice in each game hit at a 48.43% clip, the first below par mark we have seen this year.
Jags -3 vs Falcons was last week's top pick and it cashed handily, but overall six of the top eight picks lost. That included the Browns -2.5 in the contest. On Saturday when the picks locked, it looked like DeShaun Watson would play. On Sunday morning he was ruled out and the line flipped to Ravens -2 for actual bettors.
The group as a whole is relatively "sharp" compared to the betting public writ large. Four weeks does not a season make, but so far there is not much edge following the Wisdom of the Crowd here.
