This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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Week 15 NFL Picks
The NFL regular season wraps up in the next few weeks. Bittersweet really if you ask me. It's nice to have that Sunday of doing nothing but watching games, but on the other hand I'm getting ready for it to be over. The best sport on the planet, College Baseball, returns soon and I really can't wait for it. Nonetheless, we need to finish with an oomph.
Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions (-2.5) | Total: 54.5
Well, well, well. A potential SUPER BOWL preview with arguably the best teams in each conference. I know I've been waiting a while for this matchup. Not just because of the entertainment factor or litmus test, but the ripple effect this will have on the rest of the league.
First and foremost, this is THE MVP deciding game (with Steelers-Eagles also having a say). If the Bills win, Josh Allen will most likely take his first award home with him - unless Saquon breaks the rushing record, and then who knows. But, if the Lions win, now the door opens for Jared Goff, who is mispriced in this market at 17/1. Like a hungry Alligator stalking its prey, ready to make a move, I'm watching these two games because somebody else can make a move. The truth is I'm not a huge Lamar Jackson fan, and it's hard to imagine him winning the MVP back to back, especially after the charity gift he got last year. However, if the Bills and Steelers both lose on Sunday, now the Ravens are alive in the AFC North and at 14/1, Jackson adds are too cheap.
Back to this game, it's so high stakes, wouldn't you say? The Lions have maybe their toughest test of the '24 season. The offense has hummed this year. More like clicking on all cylinders. The NFL's premier scoring offense has flashed a 30 bean in six of their 13 games, including 40 points in four of their contests. And two 50 burgers. Not to mention scoring at least 24 points in all but three outings. Not hard to see how they are the best scoring offense in the league at 32.1 PPG.
I've highlighted Detroit several times this year, so you know by now how things get moving for them. It's all predicated on the ground attack, led by David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, otherwise known as "Sonic" and "Knuckles." These two backs are on pace to form the first rush duo with each 1,000 rush yards and 10+ TD's in NFL history. The most recent 1,000 yard rush teammates were 2019 Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram II. Before that, 2009 Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Both of those tandems fell just shy in tuddies.
What we're seeing from Monty and Gibbs is historic. But running behind one of the top offensive lines certainly doesn't hurt. Bringing Jared Goff and the pass catchers into the fold, it's no wonder why this team is so dangerous.
On paper, Buffalo has a great defense, but it's no where close to the level of a few years ago. We've seen them gashed and exposed by some of the better teams in the NFL. Perfect example was last weekend when Matthew Stafford and the Rams took them out to the woodshed for 44 points. They had absolutely no answer. The scary thing for Buffalo is how the Lions run their offense in a very similar way as the Rams, with the play-actions and motions etc. There are many different ways for Detroit to do damage on Sunday. The weak link for this defense is the ground game as they rank in the back half of the NFL, allowing north of 123 YPG. Can you think of anybody that might take advantage?
Buffalo has had an impressive year overall. I was somebody that didn't think the Bills would be that good. In that regard, they've definitely proved me wrong. Still, they have yet to beat a truly good team. The supporting roster gets carried by Josh Allen, and it will likely be the case for them to have a shot in this one.
The Lions currently rank as the best combined scoring offense/defense. Of course they rank number one offensively, but are tied for second on defense. Missing a lot of key players doesn't exactly ring the same tune for this defense as what shows on paper. But Buffalo is a big ground team as they rush for 125.7 YPG. The bad news is the Lions have one of the best run defenses. The vulnerability is the pass game for Detroit. Allen will likely have to pass the ball a lot to exploit this secondary.
I love this matchup here. And while the Bills have a good team, this is likely the best opponent they see this year. The Lions are way more balanced on both sides of the ball. The Bills are basically reliant on one player to be Superman. I like Detroit here.
Pick: Lions -2.5 -110 Caesars
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Circa Million Picks Week 15
Pick 1: Lions -2.5
See above.
Pick 2: Steelers +5
Not sure how this number is 5 instead of 5.5, but whatever. This is, has been, and will be a Royal Mint spot all week. At least on FanDuel, it hasn't moved since Monday from 5.5. Eagles probably win this one here, but I like the Steelers defense to slow down the Philly offense enough to keep it a tight game.
Pick 3: Texans -2.5
Houston has floundered this season. I didn't buy the Super Bowl or C.J. Stroud MVP hype in the preseason when that's all everybody else talked about. It seemed too good to be true. For Houston, the road doesn't get much easier as right after Miami they have KC, and Baltimore within the next 10 days. I like their defense to stand tall in this one.
Pick 4: Bucs +3
As you know, Tampa was my preseason NFC South winner. It took longer than I expected, but the tide finally turned for them. It's a tough draw at LAC on Sunday, but the Bolts look better on paper than in real life right now. I don't mean to diss the Bolts; I like them and the progress they've made this year. Tampa is a top five scoring offense, and while the Chargers claim the best scoring defense in the NFL, let's not forget what happened when they played competent offenses like Cincy and Baltimore. The Bucs may not be on the same tier right now, but they're not far behind. Plus, with J.K. Dobbins out and Ladd McConkey questionable, they could struggle to put up a lot of points.
Pick 5: Seahawks +2.5
Seattle leads the flock in a crowded NFC West. Every game for them is crucial to land the NFC West and home field to start the playoffs. And that's what they're playing like right now with four straight wins. The offense is juiced up, the defense is healthier and playing like a top 10 unit. It took a minute for them to get it rolling, but Seattle is clicking. Green Bay's offense right now is basically Josh Jacobs. The WR room is a revolving door of who steps up. Seattle is a tough place to play, and getting points? Gotta fire on it.
Best of luck this week.
