NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 2

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Published on September 11, 2023

NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 2

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14 and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.

Reflection on Week 1 lines and results

Underdogs 9-6 ATS
Road teams 12-3 ATS
Road dogs 8-2 ATS
UNDERs 11-4 ATS

Early observations on Week 2 lines

9 road favorites; 4 of which are divisional games
The average total is 44.5 versus 44.9 in Week 1
3 games have a line higher than -7 points
11 games have a line between -3.5 and +3.5
5 games have a line greater than -3.5

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NFL Week 2 Odds

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) O/U 48.5

Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons O/U 40.5

Las Vegas Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-9.5) O/U 48.0

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) O/U 46.5

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-5.5) O/U 50.5

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-1.0) O/U 40.5

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.0) at Jacksonville Jaguars O/U 51.5

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.0) O/U 42.0

Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans O/U 46.0

New York Giants (-4.5) at Arizona Cardinals O/U 38.5

San Francisco 49ers (-8.5) at Los Angeles Rams O/U 44.5

New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) O/U 46.0

Washington Commanders at Denver Broncos (-3.5) O/U 39.5

Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at New England Patriots O/U 47.5

New Orleans Saints (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers O/U 41.0

Cleveland Browns (-2.0) at Pittsburgh Steelers O/U 40.5

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NFL Week 2 Line Movement: Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions

There is a saying about the NFL especially after Week 1 – no team is as good as they looked and no team is as bad as they looked. That is the perfect line for this game as the Lions opened -2 and it has moved to -5.5. The Rams shredded the Seahawks defense at home and the Seattle offense got nothing going against them. While the Lions were on Thursday Night Football in front of the entire world beating the Chiefs in Kansas City, 21-20.

While the side has moved significantly, the total has only moved 1 point from 50 to 49. I'm not sure about Seattle winning this game outright, but I would not be surprised if it was close and they covered the number. This is a clear letdown spot for the Lions.

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NFL Week 2 Line Movement: Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This game was the favored target of guys who look ahead as the Bears were -1.5 road favorites against the Bucs when it opened. The money had already moved on the Packers and Bucs last week, but this line had not caught up yet. It has now that the Packers blew out the Bears and the Bucs beat the Vikings on the road.

The general perception was the Bucs were going to be a bottom five team, but the more people have looked into this team they are not going to be as bad as first thought. The Bears also had some momentum preseason, but the warts were shown against the Packers. The Bears defense is still bad, and the offense is not much better.

Tampa Bay is now -3 and the total has dropped from 44 to 42.

NFL Week 2 Line Movement: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

The biggest line move of the week so far is the 49ers who opened -3 and now sit at a whopping -8 and even as high as -8.5 in some places. The 49ers did look awesome against the Steelers and definitely put everyone on notice. But the Rams went into Seattle and stomped them while moving the ball at will against the Seahawks defense.

This is a dangerous spot as you have a road division favorite of more than a touchdown on a game with some major steam. On a side note, the total is still sitting at 44. I would keep an eye on the Rams team total, which is at the key number of 17.

NFL Week 2 Line Movement: New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

This line moved in the last day when the majority of sportsbooks opened their Week 2 lines. The Saints opened -1, moved to -1.5, but made the big move from -1.5 to -2.5, and -3.0 in the last 24 hours. The Saints won at home against the Titans, but only by 1 point and did not cover while the Panthers lost on the road 24-10 to the Falcons.

It is easy to continue going against rookie quarterbacks, but at some point the question remains "Does this team deserve this line?" That was the big issue with the Commanders as 7-point favorites against the Cardinals in Week 1. The Commanders nearly gave the game away with three turnovers before pulling it out, 20-16.

NFL Week 2 Line Movement: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

This line opened Steelers -1 and has flipped to Browns -2.0 for a 3-point line move in the last 24 hours. This is another "team is not as good or bad as they looked" scenario as the Browns dominated the Bengals at home, 24-3, and the Steelers were trounced at home by the 49ers, 30-7. This is still a heated divisional rivalry game and the Steelers know how important home divisional games are.

Another key piece of this game is the line movement on the total, which has dropped from 43.0 to 40.5. A big factor in several games on Sunday was the weather as rain caused havoc, which needs to be taken into consideration on totals for Week 2.

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