This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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NFL Odds Changes And Line Moves
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention.
On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.
NFL Week 17 Odds (Opening, Current)
- Kansas City Chiefs -4.0 at Pittsburgh Steelers O/U 42.5 (Chiefs -3.0 O/U 43.5)
- Baltimore Ravens -1.5 at Houston Texans O/U 46.5 (Ravens -5.5 O/U 46.5)
- Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears -3.5 O/U 45.5 (Seahawks -3.5 O/U 43.5)
- Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 at New England Patriots O/U 41.0 (Chargers -4.0 O/U 42.5)
- Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 O/U 45.5 (Bengals -3.5 O/U 50.0)
- Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams -5.5 O/U 48.5 (Rams -6.5 O/U 48.0)
- New York Jets at Buffalo Bills -2.5 O/U 45.5 (Bills -10.5 O/U 46.0)
- Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars -4.0 O/U 46.0 (Jaguars -1.5 O/U 39.5)
- Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints -2.0 O/U 43.0 (Raiders -1.0 O/U 37.5)
- Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 O/U 43.5 (Bucs -8.0 O/U 49.5)
- Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles -2.0 O/U 47.0 (Eagles -9.0 O/U 41.0)
- Indianapolis Colts -2.0 at New York Giants O/U 43.5 (Colts -8.0 O/U 40.5)
- Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns -2.0 O/U 44.5 (Dolphins -6.5 O/U 40.0)
- Green Bay Packers -2.0 at Minnesota Vikings O/U 45.5 (Vikings -1.0 O/U 49.0)
- Atlanta Falcons -2.0 at Washington Commanders O/U 46.0 (Commanders -4.0 O/U 47.5)
- Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers -4.5 O/U 49.5 (Lions -3.5 O/U 51.0)
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NFL Week 17 Key Injury News
QB - Jalen Hurts (PHI)
RB - Kenneth Walker (SEA), James Conner (ARI), Miles Sanders (CAR), Isaac Guerendo (KC), J.K. Dobbins (LAC), Justice Hill (BAL),
WR - Tank Dell (HOU), CeeDee Lamb (DAL), Drake London (ATL), George Pickens (PIT), Zay Flowers (BAL), Jalen Tolbert (DAL)
NFL Week 17 Odds Observations
- The highest spread is Jets/Bills -10.0; the lowest spread's are Titans/Jaguars and Raiders/Saints, both -1.0
- The highest total game is 49ers/Lions 51.5; the lowest total is Raiders/Saints 38.5
- There are 9 road favorites in Week 17
- There are 5 games with at least a 7 point line move
- The highest team totals are Bills, Rams, Bucs, Lions, Eagles, Bengals
- The lowest team totals are Giants, Cowboys, Browns, Jets
- You will see a "tax" on lines in games where one team needs the game for the playoffs, but the other team has nothing left to play for
NFL Week 17 Line Movement
Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears
This is one of the games in which one team needs it to keep their playoff chances alive and the other team has nothing to play for. That is the big reason for the 7 point line move.
The Bears opened -3.5 point home favorites, but the line moved to the Seahawks -1.0 last week and has steadily climbed in their favor up to -3.5.
Chicago has lost 9 in a row and rank in the bottom 5 in both total offense and total defense, while the Seahawks are 7-1 SU in their last 8 road games.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
The Jets are one of the teams that frequent the biggest line moves of the weeks as they have fallen significantly short of expectations. The Bills have also overachieved despite losing several key players to free agency. Josh Allen has put this team on his back and is the favorite to win the NFL MVP.
The Bills opened -2.5 point home favorites and the line has moved a full 8 points to -10.5. Even with the huge line move, this still feels a tad underpriced albeit a divisional game rivalry. This line was -9.5 early Tuesday and took another full point move on the Bills.
After playing to a bunch of unders to start the season, the overs are now hitting in Jets games, going 7-3 in their last 10.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Much like the Jets, the Cowboys have seen their lines move significantly each week from Week 1, with much of it due to the injury to Dak Prescott. The Eagles opened as -2.0 point home favorites Week 1 and when the game reopened, they jumped to -11.5. After the Jalen Hurts concussion, it went down 4 points to -7.5 and -7.0. The line has now moved back in favor of the Eagles up to -10.5, then -9.5, and now sits Eagles -9.0. To make matters worse, Kenny Pickett is also dealing with a rib issue so the Eagles quarterback situation in up in the air as of Tuesday morning.
The total opened 47.0 and it has bounced around from a 43.5, 44.5, 42.0, 44,5, 43.0, and now a low of 41.0 (current).
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have had some significant injuries this season which has led them to a disappointing 6-9 record, including 1-5 in their last 6. The Lions are still the number one seed in the NFC, though they have also had their share of injuries in recent weeks.
The Niners opened as -4.5 point home favorites and the line has moved all the way to Lions -4.0 making it a full 8.5 swing. Interestingly enough, the total opened 49.5 and has gone up to 50.5 (peaked at 51.5).
