This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Picks: Packers Futures Bets to Target in 2023
It's a new era in Green Bay. For the last three decades, they've had all-time greatness at quarterback. The torch was passed seamlessly from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers. In 2005, Rodgers was the 24th overall pick in the NFL Draft. In 2020, Jordan Love was the 26th overall pick. Will this new era be another perfect transition? Or will the team be in a transition year? The one thing most can agree on is that there is plenty of uncertainty as to what can be expected from Love.
The betting market is expecting Green Bay to have a similar record to their 8-9 performance of last season. DraftKings Sportsbook has assigned the Packers a win total of 7.5. They are slight favorites to go over at -120 odds. Betting the under is priced at +100. I will outline the case for betting that the Packers go under the 7.5-win total.
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Many Questions on the Packers' Offense
- The Packers have continuity in two areas of the offense. In the backfield, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will be in their fourth year together. Also, five of their top six offensive linemen have at least three years of experience in Green Bay. After that, the players in the passing attack are in the early stages of their careers.
- Although Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are going into their second year, going from Aaron Rodgers to any other QB is going to be a drastic change. Rodgers often got the most out of his weapons. Things that were routine for Rodgers, like audibles, will likely be very different with Love.
- As much as we don't know about Love as an NFL passer, he'll be learning along with his receivers. It seems fair to say that the passing game will be a work in progress all year. Don't forget that the Packers may be counting on three rookies as well. In this year's draft, Green Bay spent second-round picks on WR Jayden Reed and TE Luke Musgrave. They also selected TE Tucker Kraft in the third round.
- In terms of pass blocking, the Packers' line is excellent. Each of their top-six options appear to be above average in pass protection. Fortunately, Love should have time to go through his reads. That will allow him to speed up his learning curve.
- Back to the rushing attack- although the Packers line pass blocks well, the left side of the line is very good. However, from the center through right side, I project all three blockers as below average as run blockers. However, expect Green Bay to use an extra tight end on the field often, so they can lean into the running game. With Jones likely being the best offensive player, the Packers should be successful on the ground. This will help when games are close.
- Ultimately, this could be a different offense in Week 10 and beyond. But to expect a hot start seems overly optimistic. But in the current NFL, a strong passing attack is needed to consistently win.
Packers Defense: Inconsistent
- The best part of the Packers defense is the cornerbacks and the pass rushers.
- Although not elite, the trio of Jaire Alexander, Rasul Douglas and Eric Stokes are an above average group. The clear leader is Alexander. When he's on his game, he's easily a top-10 corner.
- In terms of pass rush, Rashan Gary can ruin an afternoon for an opposing offense. Gary is helped by De'Vondre Campbell, but the Packers need a bounce back season from Preston Smith, who was average as a rusher last year. Also, the team is hopeful that Quay Walker can build on a solid rookie year.
- Despite the talent, questions often arise about defensive coordinator Joe Barry. Frequently, it seems as if the Packers take a casual approach in their pass defense. As a result, a number of opponents with ordinary passing attacks have had success against them.
- Moving over to the run defense, there's not much promise. This unit has been one of the weaker units in the league for a couple years. Opponents with strong rushing attacks can often take advantage of this weakness. Not only does it allow offenses to sustain long drives and score points, but it shortens games. It also is a problem when the Packers trail. The offenses they face have the ability to keep the Green Bay offense off the field.
Packers Schedule
- The Packers have been used to playing as favorites in most of their divisional games. Based on early betting lines, Green Bay will be underdogs in four of their six divisional games.
- They also play the NFC South, though they're favored in half of those four games. Unfortunately, they play the Falcons and Saints in the first three weeks of the season. While the Packers are finding their identity, it may be difficult to beat a pair of teams they may match up against better late in the year.
- The final two NFC games are against the Rams and the Giants. Unfortunately, the matchup against the Giants is on the road, and the Packers are underdogs.
- When playing outside the conference, they draw the AFC West (Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders and Broncos) along with the Steelers. It would seem that the two easiest games in that group are against the Raiders and Broncos. But those games also come in the first half of the year. As mentioned earlier, Green Bay could look better in those games late in the season. Currently, the Packers are underdogs in all five of those contests.
- Overall, this is not a favorable schedule—especially the timing of some of the games against lesser opponents.
Best Packers Future Bet For 2023
The best bet is under 7.5 wins at +100 odds. It would seem that the offense will be a work in progress. In addition, the defense, although talented, has issues that will result in them being an average unit.
