NFL Stat Leaders Best Bets 2025
We finally made it! The NFL is back this week, kicking off the season opener between Philadelphia and Dallas on Thursday evening. It was a good summer filled with Casamigos and Clubs on the rocks with a lime (my go-to drink), moving back down to South Florida (the house that I built), and prepping for football season. I've already dished out my NFL awards article, so let's move on down the line with for stat leaders. There's a lot to unpack for futures, too much for one article, so I'll start out slow by taking a look at a few stat leaders markets with odds from our NFL player futures odds page.
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NFL Passing Yards Leaders
Since 2010, only two passing yards leaders have had under 4,700 yards. Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL in yards in 2023 with only 4,624, the lowest since Tom Brady's 4,577 in 2017. Outside of that, a leader hadn't been that low since the 4,418 yards Drew Brees put up in 2006 in his first season with NOLA. So, we have a pretty good idea of expectations, which will narrow the field significantly as there's rarely more than a small handful of QBs that have a legit shot to eclipse that number.
Joe Burrow led the NFL in pass scores (43) in 2024. For Dak Prescott's NFL-leading 36 pass tuddies (2023), it was just the fourth time since 2011 where the leader was sub-40 TDs. That stat is a bit harder to replicate as evidenced by we've had no repeat leader since 2011-2012 Brees.
When you take a look at trying to identify a yards leader, disregard the odds for a moment. Gather a handful of candidates with a legit path to winning this feat. The volume is one of the biggest factors. In the last decade, there have been a few players who have won the title delivering about 550-575 pass attempts, but for the most part, the base should be 600.
Next, you need a legit pass-catching group that can move with big chunk plays and efficiency. Another factor may be projecting team outcome. You can look at a team that may have a bad defense and will typically be playing from behind. Ideally, targeting a guy who can throw for at least 4,700 yards will put you in the conversation. Now we throw in the odds to see what's a good position to take.
The NFL passing yards leader odds aren't great on these players, so waiting is definitely an option.
Dak Prescott +800 (BetMGM)
Dak is somebody I talked about on my podcast a couple of weeks ago in the +850 range. In 2023, he finished third (4,516 yards), just over 100 yards behind the leader in Tua Tagovailoa. Prescott is back to full health coming into 2025, and with the structure of Dallas, it looks like a team that will be throwing early and often.
The running game could end up being one of the worst in the NFL with a lot of question marks. The defense got worse with Micah Parsons being shipped out to Green Bay. Combine those two factors with the addition of George Pickens to the offense, and it's realistic that we see Dak dropping back 35+ times per game this year. It also doesn't hurt that Dallas will be playing 10 of their 17 games indoors.
It's likely the Cowboys will have to do a lot of passing this year to remain in games. With the weapons in the pass game, he's got a realistic shot at taking the yards crown this year.
Baker Mayfield +1400 (FanDuel)
Love the resurgence Baker Mayfield has had in his career. I don't see it slowing down in his third year as a Buc. The offense is elite, even without Liam Coen as the OC, I'm expecting most of what we've seen the last two years since Mayfield took over.
Coming off a 4,500 yard season, Baker has an opportunity to follow up with an even bigger year in 2025. The Bucs will be without WR Chris Godwin for a while, but they still have Big Mike Evans and added Ohio State stud WR Emeka Egbuka, who will take over as the WR2 for the early part of the year. They've got legit pass-catching options out of the backfield like Bucky Irving and Rachaad White. It will be a pretty balanced offense, but skewed a little heavier through the air. With Mayfield averaging 568 attempts through two years in Tampa, it's possible we see him eclipse the 600 attempt total.
I think the defense will be average, maybe slightly below average, so we can figure the offense will have to do some scoring to have a good chance to get in that 10-11 win range again. Plus, the schedule has some heavy hitters on it, which means we could be looking at some shoot outs.
At the end of the day, we know Mayfield is a player in this market. He has the weapons, skill, and volume to be the pass yards leader. It makes his 14/1 price one of the better values and more realistic options to cash this play for us.
Other options to consider: Sam Darnold (+5000 - FD)
Pass TD Leaders
In the passing touchdown leaders market, we're mostly looking at a QB that's got a real chance to hit 40 tuddies. It's a fluky market, but that's how this one works.
Sam Darnold +4000 (FD) 0.5u
I don't want to get too caught up in this market because, like I said, it's a fluky one. Most of the favorites have legit backs that can steal some touchdowns from inside the five-yard line.
I can make a case for a lot of the favorites, obviously, but such short prices in a volatile market isn't where I'm going. The reason I think Darnold is worth a look besides the price, is because Seattle's offense could run a similar style of play to what was going on in Minnesota last year.
Sure, there's no Justin Jefferson or Jordan Addison, but the Seahawks have JSN, Cooper Kupp, and a couple of sleepers. It's a big IF, but if Darnold carries over the success of last year, then he could be a player in this market coming off a 35-TD season. There are plenty of games on the docket that look like the Hawks could be doing a lot of throwing.
Klint Kubiak, the new OC, has said he wants to run a more balanced offense with a big emphasis on the play-action game. It just so happens Darnold had the third most PA attempts last year (149) and second most yards (1,474). Granted, the weapons aren't the same, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Darnold follow up his 2024 success in a similar way in 2025.
Other players to consider: Dak Prescott (+1500 - DK)
Rushing Yards Leader
Since 2008, only four leaders have been under 1,500 yards. Kareem Hunt was the lowest at 1,327 yards. To be in the conversation, you usually have to be at a minimum of 1,500 yards. In some down years, you can get away with being in the 1,400's. Clearly, Saquon went off last year with 2,005, but that doesn't happen very often.
Bijan Robinson +950 (DK)
I gave out Bijan at +1100 on podcast a couple weeks ago, so he's shortened. It's a combination of several things to wear the rushing crown with volume, efficiency, and the ability to have those monster games. Bijan checks all three of those boxes.
Coming off a 304 carry season, he's only 23 with a lot of juice left in the tank. As much as I love Michael Penix, it's an offense that flows through the ground game. Robinson went 304/1,456,14 last season with an impressive 4.8 YPC. The big part of the volume was Atlanta relied on him heavy in the home stretch of the season, eclipsing 20 carries in five of the last six contests.
Losing RT Kaleb McGary stinks, and it could end up being a hindering factor, but I feel Atlanta will scheme the offense to work around that. There's only a handful of backs who check all three of those boxes up top, but when you combined the fact that Robinson could see closer to 330 carries this year with his explosiveness, he really only becomes one of a few backs that will have enough volume and efficiency to be a legit contender.
A lot of backs have one or the other, but for somebody like Bijan, if he plays 17 games this year, it would be difficult seeing him finish with less than 1,600 yards at a minimum.
Other plays to consider: Chuba Hubbard +3000 (FD)
Rushing TD Leaders
We're looking for leaders who are hitting the 16-TD threshold. Since 2018, no leader has been under 16. This is also a fluky market, so it's not a bad idea to look further down the board.
Initially, I liked Christian McCaffrey in the 20/1 neighborhood, but that was before the move SF made for Brian Robinson. That provides uncertainty for the workloads and the goal line looks, so I'm more hesitant about taking CMC.
The favorites come with a lot of question marks. Derrick Henry doesn't have many when it comes to the Ravens at the goal line, but I do wonder if they scale his workload back to conserve him for the playoffs, but also 5/1 isn't where I'm rushing to the window. Jalen Hurts and Barkley steal chances from each other. Jahmyr Gibbs still has David Montgomery. Robinson at 11/1 isn't bad, he actually has the fewest question marks, so he's not a bad bet. Josh Allen and James Cook are similar to the Hurts/Barkley situation.
The rushing TD leader has seen a few surprises in recent years, so given the price I'm going hunting with a longer shot.
Ashton Jeanty +4000 (MGM)
Pete Carroll is back on the NFL sidelines, and he has a new toy in expected rookie-stand out, Ashton Jeanty.
Jeanty racked up over 30 scores at Boise State last season, and the expectation is this dude is going to be a workhorse. The Raiders brought in Geno Smith to run the offense under center, but the passing game has limited options in TE Brock Bowers and WR1 Jakobi Meyers (currently in a contract stand-off). It's an offense that should be running the rock plenty.
I have questions about the efficiency of Jeanty from a rushing perspective, but when it comes to the goal line, it would be difficult imagining the kid doesn't get a healthy amount of opportunities.
The goal to hit this market is about 16 rushing scores usually, but I think with Jeanty's scoring prowess and LV's desire to run the football, it makes this an intriguing play.
Other players to consider: Bucky Irving (+4000 BetMGM)
Receiving Yards Leaders
Since 2011, there has only been one leader under 1,500 yards. Plus, they have all been pushing between 165-170 targets. It really narrows down the field.
Ja'Marr Chase +650 (FD)
I'm not overthinking this. I haven't gone with a ton of chalk so far, but this is a market where it's warranted. This is really a bet on health.
Chase is a monster with a sick QB in an offense that is a WR's dream. The defense is probably going to be hot garbage again, leading to a lot of passing attempts. Chase can win any matchup, but having Tee Higgins back on the other side ensures you can't solely focus on the LSU product. Plus, the emergence of Chase Brown out of the backfield forces defenses to be honest.
Coming off a 1,708-yard season, there is a good chance we see Chase follow that up in some similar fashion if he stays healthy. There aren't many wideouts that have the talent, volume, QB play, and luxury of playing with a bad defense that can contend for the receiving crown.
Receiving TD Leaders
Again, scoring is high variance. Since 2010, only four leaders have had under 14 scores, so we are looking at 14-17 tuddies to have a chance at leading.
Brian Thomas Jr. +2200 (FD)
BTJ is coming off an awesome rookie campaign that saw him notch 10 scores a season ago. I picked him as an OPOY play and I feel him leading the league in TDs would be more likely than catches or yards.
The backfield is a mess in Jacksonville, but regardless it's an offense that goes through the former LSU star. Liam Coen instituted a great Tampa offense last year that got the WRs involved a lot in the red zone. Obviously, Trevor Lawrence will have to improve, but we saw what happened in last year's disaster where Thomas still went off.
Now, Travis Hunter comes in, which should take some of the pressure off BTJ. The kid is a matchup nightmare, so I think Coen will scheme a lot of looks in the red zone for Thomas Jr.
There are a lot of players in this market, but the only wideouts with similarly shaky backfields behind them would be Dallas and maybe Houston. I'm looking for a lot of targets for Thomas, and I love the price.
Receptions Leaders
Since 2011, only three leaders have under 120 catches. However, since 2018, no leader has had under 125 catches. That's a lot of volume and catch efficiency.
Jaxson Smith-Njibga +2000 (DK)
I felt Darnold could be in for something of a repeat from 2024. A breakout candidate in 2024, too, was JSN. 100 catches on just 137 targets. Now as the unquestioned WR1, I expect those targets to creep up in the 165 range.
I'm a little higher on the Seattle offense than most this year, so 20/1 for a possession receiver with the ability to line up anywhere on the field is a solid play. The addition of Cooper Kupp will also take some of the pressure and attention away from JSN.
2025 should be a huge year for the Ohio State product.
Other players to consider: Evan Engram (+8000 - DraftKings)
Sacks Leaders
Since 2011, there has only been one sack leader under 17. In most years, we know there's only a few players that can get to this mark.
T.J. Watt +700 (DK)
In most cases, the sack leader wins the DPOY. I picked Watt to win the award this year, so I pretty much have to lock this number in.
Watt had a down year with 11.5 sacks in 2024 after totaling 19 the year before. I still think TJ has a few elite years left. He's one of the best players in the NFL.
The only other players I'm interested in are Myles Garrett (6/1), Will Anderson (11/1), and maybe Jared Verse (14/1). But I am rolling with my DPOY pick.
