Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Rams vs. Buccaneers

The highest-scoring team in the NFL faces off against one of the stingiest defenses, with the odds favoring the offensive juggernaut Buccaneers, who are 4.5-point home favorites against the Rams in a game with a 48.0-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook. Both teams are coming off bounce-back games following losses, but it'll be a clear battle of strengths on Monday Night Football.

QUARTERBACKS

Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady ($11,000 DK, $16,000 FD) is the most expensive player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, which isn't surprising considering he is fourth in the league in passing yards (2,739) and passing touchdowns (23). He is coming off a monster game against Carolina when he threw for 341 yards and three touchdowns while also adding a rushing score, his second game with at least four touchdowns in his last four games. He has a number of excellent receivers, and the Buccaneers have showed a willingness to let Brady throw a lot, with at least 38 passes in seven of his last eight games.

The difficulty is that he's facing a Rams defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, including a league-low nine passing touchdowns. Amazingly, they've only allowed passing touchdowns in four games this season, with Josh Allen (four) and ... checks notes again ... Jimmy Garoppolo (three) accounting for seven of those nine scores. Brady is certainly one of the better quarterbacks the Rams have faced this season, but he'll really need to break the mold to justify his high prices on both sites.

Tampa Bay has also been strong defensively against quarterbacks this season, allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to the position, though they allowed multiple touchdowns in four straight games, which came against the Raiders, Giants, Saints and Panthers (not exactly a murderer's row of opposing quarterbacks). It's certainly something Jared Goff ($9,800 DK, $14,500 FD) will try to take advantage of, as he's looking for his first game with more than two passing touchdowns since Week 2 at Philadelphia. Goff has been really up and down, throwing for over 300 yards or under 225 in seven straight games, and it doesn't help that the Buccaneers have allowed only one 300-yard passer this season, which came back in Week 2. But again, the touchdowns have been there, so there's room for optimism.

As strange as it sounds, neither quarterback is an easy play given their matchups, but quarterbacks are always popular on showdown slates, so it's not like they'll be overlooked. Keying on certain receivers or running backs may seem like the more prudent move for captain/MVPs, but narrowing down that pool of potential multiplier picks is not easy.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

There are quite a few strong wide receivers in this game, which is evident by the fact that six of the 10 most-expensive players on both sites play the position. It doesn't make it any easier to build lineups, especially if you wanted to try to get multiple pass catchers with their respective quarterback because the salary is just not there. So how do we figure out which ones to target? By flipping coins, obviously.

I'm being a bit facetious, but there is some unfortunate truth there. This definitely seems like a slate that favors those who make a lot of lineups, especially because you can almost build the same lineup while just moving certain receivers in and out.

The Buccaneers continue to incorporate Antonio Brown ($7,800 DK, $9,000 FD) into an offense that heavily relies on Chris Godwin ($8,400 DK, $13,500 FD), Mike Evans ($9,000 DK, $13,000 FD), and tight end Rob Gronkowski ($6,200 DK, $8,500 FD), who have been the most consistent options over the past few games. Scotty Miller ($1,400 DK, $7,500 FD) had also been a solid contributor at times, though the addition of Brown pretty much pushed him off the route tree. It also doesn't help that Brady has also been throwing to his running backs, making the longer-shot Buccaneers options really tough to take shots on. Tyler Johnson ($1,000 DK, $6,000 FD) was an option at some point this season, but the limited volume is even smaller now, a situation that also applies to Justin Watson ($200 DK, $5,500 FD) and Cameron Brate ($2,200 DK, $6,500 FD), though the latter did catch all three of his targets for 31 yards and a touchdown last week.

If you're someone who likes to focus on specific defensive matchups, Godwin has an advantage against the Rams, while Evans gets a downgrade and Brown is even in this week's Corner Report by Mario Puig. It's not something that should make or break a decision, but it certainly helps that Godwin is in a better spot matchup-wise. We also shouldn't ignore that the Rams have allowed only four tight end touchdowns this season, but that included three to the Bills back in Week 3 when they also allowed only 25 yards to the position.

The Rams side is just as difficult, with Cooper Kupp ($9,200 DK, $12,000 FD) and Robert Woods ($8,200 DK, $12,500 FD) dominating the air opportunities for much of the season, though it was Josh Reynolds ($6,500 DK, $9,500 FD) leading the way last week, catching eight of 10 targets for 94 yards while Kupp and Woods combined for 83. However, Reynolds actually gets a downgrade in the Corner Report while Kupp and Woods get even grades. Reynolds is much more of a deep-play threat, as his 12.0 aDOT is firmly ahead of Kupp's 7.0 and Woods' 7.4, and the quick throws to the latter two may be more effective Monday night.

Tight end Tyler Higbee ($4,800 DK, $7,500 FD) is coming off his best yardage day of the season, catching three of six targets for 60 yards, and he now faces a defense that allowed four tight end touchdowns in the past four weeks. That's certainly a plus, but it seems like he'll have to get into the end zone to make any meaningful impact, something he's done in only one game this season (granted, he scored thrice). There aren't a plethora of longer-shot options, which means we'll have a scant few people looking at Van Jefferson ($600 DK, $6,000 FD), who leads the Rams with a 12.7 aDOT, and backup tight end Gerald Everett ($2,600 DK, $7,500 FD), who had nine targets just two games ago.

Any one of Godwin, Evans, Kupp and Woods are viable captain/MVP options, though they aren't going to be cheap, obviously, especially with the correlative move of using a flex spot on a quarterback. Given the available options, we shouldn't see any one be overly popular.

RUNNING BACKS

The backfield situations are pretty messy, so it's not like we can try to avoid the plethora of pass-catchers by focusing on one or two bell cows. Tampa Bay's running back situation is presumably easier to figure out because it's only trying to project the workload distribution of two guys and not three. Leonard Fournette ($4,400 DK, $8,000 FD) and Ronald Jones ($8,800 DK, $11,500 FD) are priced as if only the last game matters, as Jones rushed 23 times for 192 yards and a touchdown last week against Carolina when Fournette could only muster 19 yards on eight rushing attempts. Ninety eight of Jones' 192 yards came on a single play, and that certainly led him to getting more touches throughout the game. It was a clear outlier since Fournette returned from injury, however, and I'll just let Jerry Donabedian explain the rest from this week's Hidden Stat Line:

Player	Snap Share	Carries	Targets	Target Share	Routes	Routes/DB	Stat Line
Ronald Jones	59%	23	2	5.3%	16	.39	23-192-1 — 1-6-0
Leonard Fournette	36%	8	3	7.9%	14	.34	8-19-0 — 2-11-0

• LeSean McCoy got on the field for the first time since Week 6.... but only for three Blaine Gabbert kneel-downs at the very end of the game.
• Jones played more snaps than Fournette for the first time since Fournette returned from his ankle injury, ending a three-game streak with LF getting at least 56 percent of snaps and six targets.
• The 23 carries for Jones matched his career high from the Week 6 win over Green Bay, one of the games Fournette missed. RoJo lost a fumble for a second time in the past three weeks, but it didn't have any impact on his workload, as he got three carries on the very next drive after coughing the ball up in the first quarter.
• Jones only had a slight advantage over Fournette in the red zone — 11-10 for snaps and 6-4 for touches. Jones got two of the team's four carries inside the 5-yard line, while Fournette got one and Tom Brady the other. Brady's sneak was the only TD out of the four.
• Jones got clock-killing work in the fourth quarter, taking the final five carries of the game before Tampa went to kneel-down mode.
• Fournette played six of nine snaps on 3rd-and-medium/long, with Jones getting one and the Bucs using no RB for two others. Fournette also played each of the team's three snaps inside the two-minute warning of the first half, i.e., he was still the clear favorite on passing downs.

Jones is priced on both sites as if he'll get a dominant share of the backfield touches, which just doesn't seem justified over more than a one-game sample. Both running backs have been involved in the passing game too, with Fournette out-targeting Jones 22 to 12 over the past four games, including 10 to five in the past two. The good thing is that we probably don't have to worry about LeSean McCoy ($400 DK, $5,500 FD) or Ke'Shawn Vaughn ($800 DK, $5,000 FD), but that really isn't all that helpful. The salary savings could help push more people toward Fournette, though maybe neither will be overly popular against a Rams defense that's allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, including only four rushing touchdowns all season.

The Rams' situation is an absolute hot mess, with Darrell Henderson ($5,800 DK, $10,500 FD), Cam Akers ($2,800 DK, $7,000 FD) and Malcolm Brown ($5,400 DK, $8,500 FD) all splitting touches. I won't try to break it all down because Jerry did it so well in Hidden Stat Line, so here it is:

Player	Snap Share	Carries	Targets	Target Share	Routes	Routes/DB	Stat Line
Malcolm Brown	41%	6	2	5.6%	14	.33	6-33-2 — 2-18-0
Darrell Henderson	33%	7	1	2.8%	11	.26	7-28-1 — 1-5-0
Cam Akers	26%	10	0	0.0%	3	.07	10-38-0 — 0

• Henderson left the Week 8 game with a quad/thigh injury, but he returned healthy after a bye and got the start Sunday afternoon. However, he took only one carry on the opening drive, while Akers got three.
• This was the second straight game in which each of the Rams' three RBs saw 6-to-10 carries. Henderson's injury was a factor in the even split during the previous game, but on Sunday there was no doubt the Rams made an effort to get Akers involved, even with Henderson looking healthy.
• Brown played each of the 10 snaps on 3rd-and-medium/long. There was one drive in the second quarter where he picked up 13 yards on a 3rd-and-1 and then 11 yards on a 3rd-and-9, later scoring from seven yards out on a 3rd-and-2.
• Brown's second TD came on a 1st-and-goal from the 1-yard line in the third quarter. Brown, Akers and Henderson each took one carry inside the 5-yard line.

What the heck are we supposed to do with this? Coach Sean McVay has said numerous times this season that Akers will be getting the ball more, and while he had 19 carries in the last two games, he's only turned them into 73 yards and no touchdowns. Over the same time frame, Henderson rushed 15 times for 75 yards and a touchdown while Brown had 16 carries for 73 yards and four catches for 35. From an overall volume perspective, it seems like Henderson has the biggest path to being the odd man out, of course I say that after he scored a touchdown just last week. Given their respective prices, it seems Akers could be more popular given his usage trend is moving in the right direction, and Brown can certainly get some people looking his way because he's mostly the pass catcher of the group. So, theoretically that leaves Henderson as the least popular, so contrarian players could look his way for that very reason.

Oh, and let's not forget that the Buccaneers have allowed a league-low 3.03 yards per carry this season, with the seven rushing touchdowns given up to running backs pushing them to have allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to the position this season.

Overall, it seems none of the running backs will be overly popular, certainly from a captain/MVP standpoint, so there are leverage plays available for those willing to take the risks that their guy only ends up with 10 total touches.

KICKERS

A somewhat lower-scoring game, at least by this year's standards, could have fantasy players considering Ryan Succop ($4,000 DK, $9,000 FD) and Matt Gay ($3,600 DK, $8,000) because of their respective floors. Gay is expected to start for the injured Kai Forbath (ankle), and while he technically has no floor because he hasn't played this season, it's really just the floor of the Rams' kicker in this situation.

Succop has been very productive this season, scoring at least 7.0 fantasy points in all but two games, and his floor could be very helpful in a game with a plethora of players who could cannibalize each other. Consideration for the kickers is basically whether you believe they finish with their regular floors and the players in their salary ranges don't hit their ceilings, which may not be all that crazy given the tough matchups for players like Fournette, Higbee, Akers, Everett, Brate and Miller.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Even though this game isn't expected to be high scoring, the total also isn't low enough where fantasy players are going to quickly look to see how much the defenses cost. The Rams ($3,000 DK) have been fairly solid recently, registering 11 sacks and seven turnovers in the past three games, a span that saw the Buccaneers ($3,800 DK) score a total of 13.0 fantasy points (for reference, the Rams scored 13.0 last week against Seattle). Their low prices could have fantasy players targeting them if only because they have somewhat of a floor with touchdown upside, and they help afford the higher-priced players, a situation that particularly applies if you use them as captain on DraftKings, a strategy most people will probably avoid.