Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Lions vs. Packers

Monday night's divisional battle between the Lions and Packers at Lambeau Field has a fairly pedestrian 45.5-point total on FanDuel Sportsbook, with the Packers 3.5-point favorites. Coming off their bye, the Lions are 2-1-1, having defeated the Chargers and Eagles, tying the Cardinals and losing to the Chiefs, while the Packers are 4-1 with wins over the Bears, Broncos, Cowboys and Vikings while losing to the Eagles.

Neither team has been particularly dominant on a consistent basis, but both have players who can explode for GPP-winning scores.

QUARTERBACKS

In a game that features the 16th all-time leading passer in NFL history against the 22nd, neither quarterback in Monday's game has been particularly prolific this season. Aaron Rodgers ($11,600 DK, $15,500 FD) is the most expensive player on both sites, but he's only thrown for more than 240 yards once in five games while throwing multiple touchdowns just twice. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford ($9,600 DK, $15,000) has been more productive, throwing for more than 240 years in three of four starts, including three games with multiple touchdowns (two with three). Interestingly, FanDuel's player props continue to favor Rodgers, likely because he's a home favorite, with his passing yards (262.5 to 255.5) and passing touchdowns (over 1.5 -134 vs. -102) outpacing Stafford's odds. Additionally, Rodgers' 36.5 pass attempts prop is higher than all but one game this season, and is also higher than Stafford's 34.5.

There are plenty of ways to read this game to justify either Rodgers or Stafford, but it's entirely expected that Rodgers will be decently owned because he's Aaron Rodgers in a home game on Monday night. Stafford's upside theoretically comes from the Packers going ahead early and the Lions having to throw their way back into it, and Rodgers' ideal game plan comes from either the opposite or getting enough points early on through the air to get a big score. Both players should get some captain/MVP consideration, but it may not be the ideal move given a number of other players in the game could outscore them at cheaper prices.

RUNNING BACKS

I usually like to focus on the pass-catchers after the quarterbacks, but the running backs should get plenty of attention. The Packers' Aaron Jones ($11,400 DK, $14,000 FD) is the second-most expensive player on DraftKings and third-most on FanDuel after a monster performance last week against the Cowboys, rushing 19 times for 107 yards and four touchdowns while also adding seven catches on eight targets for 75 receiving yards. That huge game needs to be scaled back a bit in terms of Monday's matchup because that one was played without backup Jamaal Williams ($5,200 DK, $7,000 FD), who is expected to return Monday after recovering from a concussion. One would think that Jones' performance would warrant additional touches, but Williams has been productive enough in his limited carries and targets to get playing time, and any opportunities that Williams gets only takes away from Jones. Long-shot Tra Carson ($400 DK, $6,500 FD), was somewhat useful last week, rushing six times for 14 yards and catching all four targets for 18, but Williams' return likely caps this upside significantly. 

It's really too bad that Jones, or Williams, won't have a monopoly of the backfield looks because they're facing a Lions defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs on DraftKings and FanDuel this season, and their games against the Cardinals, Chargers, Eagles and Chiefs aren't to blame for the poor numbers. Jones is at the top of the Packers' running back depth chart, and after last week's game, he deserves plenty of captain/MVP consideration, while Williams seems more like a complementary flex play for those who want to focus more on lineup uniqueness than optimal construction since playing two running backs from the same team doesn't usually work out.

Meanwhile, the Lions finally seem to be willing to let Kerryon Johnson ($8,600 DK, $12,000 FD) do his thing, as he's rushed at least 20 times in back-to-back games, including last week's big 26-carry, 125-yard performance against the Chiefs, one that included seven red-zone carries, with two of those coming from inside the five-yard line. Over that span, backups Ty Johnson ($1,800 DK, $5,000 FD) and J.D. McKissic ($1,000 DK, $7,000 FD) have combined for 12 carries, with the former only getting 18 yards on his seven tries and the latter much more productive, racking up 74 yards on only five. Neither player has the volume to make serious noise Monday, though McKissic's burst has at least showed he can break off longer gains, even if none have gone for touchdown yet. They've also only combined for one red-zone carry, so it's not even like we have a track record of poaching close looks from Johnson. The Lions' starter actually has a 72.5 to 68.5 rushing yard prop edge over Jones, though the Packers' starter has a 32.5 to 20.5 edge in receiving yards expectations. It also doesn't hurt that the Packers have been horrific against the run this season, allowing the third-most fantasy points to running backs on both sites this season, so there's definitely a recipe for a solid Johnson game.

With Rodgers, and possibly Stafford, taking up some captain/MVP ownership, it would be nice to get Jones slightly lower, though last week's game won't help in that regard. Meanwhile, Johnson could be an interesting choice, if only because taking the running back from a road underdog isn't usually a path to big points. However, with the way he's been utilized lately, the Lions could feed him early with the hope he churns yards and keeps Rodgers off the field.

WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS

With Davante Adams ruled out once again because of a toe injury, the Packers are expected to use plenty of Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($7,800 DK, $8,500 FD), Geronimo Allison ($6,400 DK, $8,000 FD) and Jimmy Graham ($7,000 DK, $8,000 FD), with Jake Kumerow ($2,800 DK, $5,000 FD) and Marcedes Lewis ($600 DK, $5,500 FD) also available. It was actually Jones who led the team with eight targets last week, and while Allison and Valdes-Scantling have gotten 10 and 11 targets in the past two games, respectively (one included Adams getting 15), Graham is ahead of both with 12. Then again, that included nine against the Eagles in Week 4. So, we have a quarterback (Rodgers) who isn't throwing that much, and he's spreading the targets around enough that if you want access to their passing game, it seems better to just focus on the guy throwing the ball instead of the ones trying to catch it. That should somewhat reduce ownership on these guys, and it's certainly helpful that Valdes-Scantling and Allison are relatively cheap, especially considering Adams would have cost $10,400 on DraftKings and $13,000 on FanDuel. 

Valdes-Scantling probably has the leg up as the team leader (excluding Adams) in targets (32), receiving yards (235) and air yards (422), and he leads all non-running backs in catches (17). Meanwhile, Allison really hasn't been used that much, catching 10 of 17 targets for 104 yards, and his 7.7 aDOT and 131 air yards both trail Graham's 9.1 and 172, respectively. Then again, they each have two touchdowns, which is double Valdes-Scantling, and they each have a five-to-three lead in red-zone targets, with Graham actually getting two looks from inside the five-yard line (two of MVS' three red-zone targets were also inside the five). Valdes-Scantling is likely to be the highest-owned Packers receiver, and his price isn't nearly high enough to push people away, which makes Allison, Kumerow, and Lewis the leverage plays in terms of ownership (the latter two much more than the former).

Meanwhile, Kenny Golladay ($9,400 DK, $12,500 FD) is the most expensive Lions receiver, which shouldn't be all that surprising because he leads the team in targets (36), receptions (19), air yards (531), red-zone targets (six) and receiving touchdowns (four). He's been targeted at least eight times in each game, and while he's only had more than 70 receiving yards in one game this season, he does have at least one touchdown in three of four. His upside is immense, especially considering he is eighth in the NFL in air yards even though he's only played four games. Teammate Marvin Jones ($6,800 DK, $10,000 FD) actually leads the team with 277 receiving yards on one fewer reception than Golladay, and while he's only been targeted 24 times, his 362 air yards are solid, and he leads the team with a 15.1 aDOT, the ninth-highest mark in the NFL among players with at least 15 targets. Tight end T.J. Hockenson ($5,400 DK, $8,000 FD) showed tremendous upside in the season opener, catching six of nine targets for 131 yards and a touchdown against the Cardinals, but he's been barely used since then, catching five of 10 targets for 35 yards and a touchdown, though he does at least have four red-zone targets in the past two games. Hockenson was actually forced out of their Week 4 games against the Chiefs because of a concussion, but he's practicing fully again and should be good for Monday. 

Unfortunately, the same may not be the case for wideout Danny Amendola ($4,600 DK, $7,500 FD), who is questionable with a chest injury. Amendola actually has the same number of targets (19) and receptions (11) as Hockenson, though he unsurprisingly trails in receiving yards (166 to 141), air yards (194 to 169) and aDOT (10.8 to 8.9) given his role as a possession receiver and the fact he's played one fewer game (but again, Hockenson was knocked out of one). If Amendola, who also had a big game against the Cardinals in Week 1 (seven catches on 13 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown) doesn't play, Marvin Hall ($1,200 DK), who caught two of three targets for 47 yards against the Chiefs in Week 4, could move into Amendola's spot. Unfortunately, he's not in the FanDuel player pool, so surely they are hoping he is a dud. Deeper Lions options include tight ends Jesse James ($1,400 DK, $5,000 FD) and Logan Thomas ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), who have combined for 10 catches on 12 targets for 93 yards, with Thomas showing more upside thanks to his 113 air yards and 16.1 aDOT versus James' 46 and 6.6, respectively. Neither player should be expected to have much volume, and it doesn't help that Thomas leads the two with one red-zone target this season.

KICKERS

Monday's game isn't expected to be that low scoring, so rostering either kicker seems more for cash games because of their decent floors versus limited upside. Matt Prater ($3,600 DK, $9,500 FD) of the Lions is more expensive than the Packers' Mason Crosby ($3,800 DK, $9,000 FD) on FanDuel, which comes after he was a perfect three-for-three before their bye, including one from beyond 50. Meanwhile, Crosby has missed just one field goal all season and is a perfect 14-for-14 on PATs, though he's only attempted field goals beyond 39 yards in one game. 

Crosby has scored at least nine fantasy points on DraftKings in three of four games, but he topped out at 11, while Prater has reached that nine-point threshold in three of four games while maxing out at 15. Again, you're rostering kickers because of their floors, and their GPP upsides are more helpful in lower-scoring games.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

While they still haven't scored a touchdown, the Packers defense ($5,000) has scored at least nine fantasy points in all but one game thanks to 11 turnovers and 15 sacks. Unfortunately, Stafford hasn't been a big interception-thrower over the past few years, so turnovers may have to depend on fumbles, which aren't as easy to return for touchdowns. On the other end, the Lions have been okay defensively, scoring at least five points in each game, with a high of 13 against the Eagles, a game that included a defensive touchdown. Neither profile for huge games Monday, but they're consistent and at least offer a little more upside than the kickers.