Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Buffalo vs. Denver

Monday night's game between the Buffalo Bills and the visiting Denver Broncos looks like it could be an eventful one, both for viewers and participants in showdown DFS slates. Unlike a number of primetime games this year, this one looks like it might involved some points scored – for the Bills, at the very least, but maybe even for the Broncos, too. The Bills are favored by 7.0 points, yet the over/under of 47.5 implies the expectation that the Broncos respond with some number of points of their own. The Bills offense might need to unleash itself fully to keep a safe distance on the scoreboard, which could bring about a shootout sort of environment. One thing is for sure: at 5-4 the Bills absolutely cannot afford to lose this game.

QUARTERBACK

The Broncos are not a good team and this is far from a potential Legacy Game for Josh Allen ($12600 DK, $17500 FD), but the mood is still one of maximum urgency with the Bills' playoff ambitions in peril due to their 5-4 record. The Broncos have two excellent defensive backs in Patrick Surtain and Justin Simmons, but otherwise there isn't a whole lot of talent on this Denver defense. The motive and opportunity both are there for Allen to post huge numbers here – the Bills very well might need it, and there's no indication the Broncos can defend themselves. This probably is not the game to fade Allen in showdown, painful as the cost might be.

Russell Wilson ($9400 DK, $15000 FD) is of course much less formidable than Allen, and the Broncos offense remains from good. With that said, Wilson has had some good fantasy outings this year and is quietly on a pace to throw for more than 30 touchdowns in 2023, albeit with a low amount of passing yardage. The upside scenario for Wilson is one where he attempts more passes than usual, hopefully resulting in more yardage while maintaining the otherwise clean touchdown (16) and interception numbers (four) that he has going into this game. The Bills defense has been depleted by injury this year, and cornerback in particular is a struggle point for them at the moment.

RUNNING BACK

James Cook ($10000 DK, $11000 FD) has seen sporadic usage lately, which is odd because he has mostly been effective when given opportunity in 2023. This appears to be a good setting for him to get back on track. Although Latavius Murray ($1800 DK, $7500 FD) looms as a touchdown vulture and is therefore a reasonable pick in his own right, Cook is the only one of the two with any elusiveness or big-play ability. The Broncos have struggled a great deal against opposing running backs in 2023, conceding 5.6 yards per carry and 6.4 yards per target. This could and arguably should go down as Cook's biggest game of the year, but if he falls short of that then Murray would be the logical candidate to emerge the beneficiary otherwise.

Javonte Williams ($7200 DK, $12000 FD) has really been rolling lately, taking 42 carries over the last two weeks and producing 167 yards rushing in that span, adding six catches for 27 yards and one touchdown. The defenses clearly prioritized stopping Williams – an ongoing issue especially since the Broncos have gone so run-heavy to hide Wilson and the passing game – but he held serve anyway, and now he gets a shot at a reeling Buffalo defense that wasn't great at stopping the run to begin with and has gotten worse since then due to injury. Jaleel McLaughlin ($2600 DK, $8000 FD) remains a capable big-play threat off the bench, but he'll need to make his sparse usage count since Samaje Perine ($1400 DK, $7000 FD) figures to steal just enough snaps to be a thorn in McLaughlin's side.

WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END

Stefon Diggs ($12000 DK, $15500 FD) is certainly a candidate to post big numbers here, because the Bills are expected to score points and they generally can only do that when Diggs is rolling. If there's any concern it might be that the Broncos defense is so weak that the Bills are less dependent on Diggs than usual, but one concern that might be overstated is the presence of cornerback Patrick Surtain. Surtain might shadow Diggs, but this is not in itself a cause for concern for Diggs, who basically can't be covered in man coverage. Defenses need to put safety help over Diggs to contain him, and if the Broncos instead play man coverage and give Surtain no help (reasoning that he doesn't need it, given his own abilities) then that specifically could be the way it goes worst for the Broncos. If the Broncos instead bracket Diggs with constant safety double teams, then Dalton Kincaid ($8400 DK, $10500 FD) and Gabe Davis ($7400 DK, $12500 FD) could both go nuts. Khalil Shakir ($4400 DK, $8000 FD) also looms as a capable threat, and one who might be gaining momentum. Trent Sherfield also plays some snaps for some reason, while Deonte Harty has seen his offensive role all but deleted. Quintin Morris is a candidate to see upwards of a dozen snaps but only played four last week.

It's been a bizarre season for Jerry Jeudy ($6800 DK, $10000 FD) and it seems unlikely he'll ever become what people hoped for in Denver, but he has quietly remained quite effective in 2023. He's drawing targets at a rapid rate, but the Denver passing game has lacked volume. That might change here as the Broncos need to play catch-up, and if so it could result in a big game for both Jeudy and Courtland Sutton ($7000 DK, $13000 FD), the latter of which has a touchdown in five of his last six games. Both Jeudy and Sutton are probably too much for the Buffalo corners to cover for long. The same is true of Marvin Mims ($3800 DK, $7500 FD), though to this point he's been stuck with decoy routes to give cover to Jeudy and Sutton underneath. Lil'Jordan Humphrey, Adam Trautman and Chris Manhertz all play a healthy number of snaps but are very rarely targeted as blocking specialists.

KICKER

Tyler Bass ($5200 DK, $8500 FD) is a plenty capable kicker, and if the offenses move quickly enough in this game he could see a significant amount of opportunity here. Generally, though, Bass' opportunities have been infrequent since Week 5, with a maximum of 6.0 fantasy points over that span. He had 50 fantasy points in the four weeks prior, so maybe he can back into that sort of groove here.

Will Lutz ($4600 DK, $9000 FD) can't trust his offense to put him into scoring position as often as Bass with the Bills, but Lutz is an excellent kicker in his own right and figures to seize whatever level of opportunity presents itself. Lutz posted 15.0 fantasy points against the Packers two weeks ago, but he needs this game to stay competitive so that the Broncos don't resort to going for 4th downs in pursuit of touchdowns over field goals.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Bills ($5000 DK, $9500 FD) defense remains proud but clearly is struggling to figure some things out in the meantime. The losses of Tre'Davious White and Matt Milano have been difficult to overcome, and it's possible that the Bills simply don't have the means to do it. Russell Wilson has not been an explosive passer in 2023 but he has only thrown four interceptions, so this doesn't appear to be the best setup for turnover potential for the Bills defense. Still, Sean McDermott remains a distinguished defensive coach and has churned out gems before.

The Broncos ($3200 DK, $8500 FD) don't really seem to have anything going for them here. Anything can happen, but they need a distinctly unusual series of outcomes from the Bills offense for that 'anything' to happen. If Josh Allen fails in this setting it would probably go down as one of the most embarrassing games of his career.