Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Bills vs. Patriots

Monday's game holds huge repercussions for the layout of the AFC playoff picture as the surging Patriots (8-4) head to Buffalo to face the Bills (7-4). Breaking down the single-game slate could be a bit tricky in what's expected to be a defensive matchup with the Bills favored by 2.5 points and an over/under of 41 (after opening at 45). Both defenses in this game have played very well most of the year, and wind might make it even tougher yet on the offenses. The game is expected to be just below freezing with winds around 20 miles per hour.
 

QUARTERBACKS

Josh Allen ($11200 DK, $17500 FD) is arguably the biggest name in this matchup, and certainly the most expensive player in the DFS slate. Allen is the kind of player who, particularly given the rushing volume he takes on, can end up in all the cashing lineups even during his off days, but this matchup does nonetheless present the clear risk of an off day for the standout quarterback. The Patriots defense might rank second to the Bills' first-ranked defense, but the Patriots defense has more momentum at the moment and might establish itself as the league's best defense, in large part on the basis of this game. Allen sometimes struggles when he can't get a read on the defense before the snap, and the Patriots' varied personnel makes them especially difficult to figure out pre-snap. Again, Allen can make Team Cash even on his off days, but if we normally want Allen in nine of our 10 showdown lineups then perhaps in this matchup we'd want it more like seven or eight out of 10.

Dangerous as this matchup is for Allen, there's no doubt that Mac Jones ($10000 DK, $15000 FD) has a perilous matchup himself against a Buffalo defense that ranks first in the league by most metrics. Playing on the road and in high winds can add substantially more difficulty to what was already a challenging matchup. The good news is that Jones' quick release setup should insulate him from pass rush pressure, and the Bills lost CB1 Tre'Davious White last week, depriving the Bills of arguably their best defensive player. Without White, it wouldn't be surprising if the Bills defense slides down the pass defense rankings as the year winds down. Perhaps Jones isn't in a position to hurt them much as a rookie playing on the road in difficult weather, but the Bills defense will almost certainly trend downward from here.
 

RUNNING BACKS

The Patriots split the snaps between Damien Harris ($9800 DK, $12500 FD), Rhamondre Stevenson ($5600 DK, $12000 FD), and Brandon Bolden ($3200 DK, $7500 FD) almost exactly evenly against the Titans in Week 13, with the three playing 20, 20 and 19 snaps, respectively. If that trend holds here, then perhaps Harris is the one whose cost is most difficult to justify, if only because he sees less pass-catching work than Stevenson and especially Bolden. Bolden is technically questionable with a knee injury, so if he's out or limited then it could create more pass-catching opportunity for Harris, but in the meantime we can generally assume Harris needs to make his living on the ground. There's a chance that Harris can do just that – the Bills run defense ranks well on the year, but they were lit up by Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor, which raises the possibility that the strong overall stats of the Buffalo run defense might be partially informed by a weak schedule. The Patriots might look to limit how much they expose Jones on the road against this Buffalo defense, and if so there could be room for all three Patriots running backs to make Team Cash, especially if the Patriots get the upset and Allen struggles on the other side. Stevenson's price is almost compellingly low on DraftKings.

On the other side the hot name in the backfield is suddenly, somehow, Matt Breida ($6600 DK, $7500 FD). The speedy back has distinguished himself from the slower duo of Devin Singletary ($4600 DK, $8000 FD) and Zack Moss ($600 DK, $7000 FD), the latter of which didn't even play against Tennessee. Singletary did play 42 snaps to Breida's 20 on Thanksgiving, but Singletary's plodding production and ball security issues could allow Breida to claim more work going forward. The more the Bills play Singletary, the better for the Patriots.
 

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

Stefon Diggs ($10600 DK, $14000 FD) is the star of this category, and a talent like him is capable of thriving even in difficult conditions. Diggs will need to transcend the otherwise difficult circumstances, though, both because the wind will make it more difficult to throw downfield and because he might see the shadow coverage of elite corner J.C. Jackson. If Diggs can get the better of Jackson in conditions like these then he truly can say he can beat anyone. Emmanuel Sanders ($6400 DK, $9500 FD) doesn't have Diggs' abilities, but he should see less of Jackson and more of the beatable Jalen Mills and Joejuan Williams. The Bills could really use a standout game from the otherwise struggling Cole Beasley ($7800 DK, $10000 FD) in the slot, especially with the winds making the deep ball less viable for Diggs and Gabriel Davis ($1200 DK, $6500 FD). If Beasley is a dud in the middle of the field then the Bills' last hope there is Dawson Knox ($5400 DK, $10500 FD), who might in whatever case be the Bills' best candidate for a receiving touchdown. With that said, the Patriots have absolutely devoured tight ends this year, conceding just 5.4 yards per target at a completion rate of 54.5.

Nelson Agholor ($3000 DK, $7000 FD) is the Patriots' only speed receiver and as such is probably the main beneficiary of the Tre'Davious White injury, but the high winds will probably make it tougher than usual for Agholor to take advantage downfield. Agholor and Kendrick Bourne ($8600 DK, $11000 FD) might need to make their plays underneath instead. Bourne has all the hype right now and has certainly played well, but he actually plays fewer snaps than Agholor and Jakobi Meyers ($7200 DK, $9500 FD) – or at least that has been the case up to this point. N'Keal Harry ($200 DK, $6000 FD) is a candidate to pop up occasionally as the WR4, but tight ends Jonnu Smith ($2400 DK, $6500 FD) and especially Hunter Henry ($5200 DK, $9000 FD) are probably better bets to hold a presence in the box score.
 

KICKERS

Wind isn't good for kicking, but sputtering offenses sometimes can be. Both the Bills and Patriots are capable of generating good field position for themselves, yet neither offense projects especially well for sealing the deal with touchdowns. Windy or not, field goal range might be the best these offenses are capable of, and field goal kicking as a result might play a role here. Tyler Bass ($4400 DK, $8500 FD) is the guy for the Bills, while Nick Folk ($4200 DK, $8500 FD) drives the ball for the Patriots. Folk has absolutely raked in 2021, and while Bass has seen fewer opportunities he's likely one of the league's best kickers in his own right.
 

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

It's possible that neither defense pays off for single-game investors, but the over/under and the weather imply that it's more likely that both will, and almost a certainty that at least one will. The question of which defense you prefer probably comes down to which team you expect to win, but even the loser defense could provide useful fantasy production, especially if the under hits. The Bills ($3800 DK) might be slightly favored, but the Patriots ($4000 DK) is probably more dangerous in every respect, especially in light of the White injury.