Monday Night DFS Breakdown: Chicago vs. Washington

Monday night's primetime matchup between Chicago and Washington comes in with a 41.5-point total on FanDuel Sportsbook, the second-lowest of Week 3, with the Bears 5.5-point road favorites. The low total is understandable, as the Bears have one of the best defenses in the league while scoring just 19 points in two games, though Washington has been the total opposite, putting 48 points on the board in two games but allowing 63. Even with Washington's porous defense, the Bears' offense hasn't done anything in two games to make it look like a dominant unit, with their respective team totals coming in at 17.0 and 23.5. Paying up for offensive players in a game that figures to be low scoring may not be the appropriate route for roster building Monday night, and we could see plenty of lineups with kickers and defenses (fun!) like we saw for Thursday's Titans vs. Jaguars game, which ended 20-7.

QUARTERBACKS

Well, we finally did it; we finally reached a point in the daily fantasy sports life cycle when Case Keenum is the most expensive player on a slate. Congratulations, everyone! Taking the honors on FanDuel at $15,500, Keenum is $1,000 more than Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, though the two have their spots swapped on DraftKings, where Trubisky is tops at $10,400 and Keenum close behind at $10,200. In fairness, Keenum has been very good, passing for 601 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions in two games, while Trubisky has been dreadful, passing for 348 yards zero touchdowns and one interception. It makes the pricing on FanDuel look correct on the surface, though it almost ignores the fact that Keenum is facing the elite Bears defense. Either way, it's tough to justify either player in cash games, and both seems incredibly difficult because you're using so much salary on players who aren't expected to have huge games, leaving other roster spots to low floor and maybe high-ceiling fliers.

Captaining/MVPing quarterbacks in single-game formats works better when they have a wide distribution of pass catchers, otherwise it's best to focus on the guys who are getting a significant number of targets. Keenum and Trubisky do spread it around a bit, but there are two clear beneficiaries of their targets who should be considered instead.

WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS

Chicago's Allen Robinson ($9,800 DK, $13,000 FD) and Washington's Terry McLaurin ($8,600 DK, $13,500 FD) are the two dominant receivers in this game, with Robinson accounting for more than 43 percent of his team's air yards and McLaurin more than 51 percent. Both players were in the top 10 in the NFL for air yards through two games (McLaurin was fourth at 275 and Robinson 10th at 247), and if you don't want to rely on passing yards and possible touchdown points from the quarterbacks, paying for McLaurin, who has 10 catches on 16 targets for 187 yards, two touchdowns and a 17.2 aDOT, and Robinson -- 11 catches on 20 targets for 143 yards and a 12.4 aDOT -- could be a viable build, with either certainly worth of captain/MVP consideration.

Robinson and McLaurin are obviously not the only receivers who can make impacts, but in terms of reliability, it's really tough to find anyway. Among Chicago's receivers and tight ends, only Taylor Gabriel ($4,400 DK, $6,500 FD) has more than five targets, while Javon Wims ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) leads the group in aDOT at 12.5, but he didn't catch either of his two targets in Week 1 and was not targeted in Week 2. Meanwhile, tight end Adam Shaheen ($2,800 DK, $5,000 FD) has been running a few more routes as Trey Burton ($6,000 DK, $6,000 FD) continues to work his way back from groin surgery (Burton is officially questionable to play Monday), but Shaheen still only has four catches on five targets for 30 yards (19 air yards) and isn't a down-field threat at all. It's the deeper throws we generally need for GPP-winning scores, but Anthony Miller ($3,600 DK, $5,500 FD) and Cordarrelle Patterson ($2,400 DK, $5,000 FD) haven't shown us anything, combining for two catches on five targets for five yards with a total of 52 air yards between them; at least they're both averaging more than 10 yards per target, but the volume just isn't there. Heck, even third-string tight end Ben Braunecker ($600 DK, $5,000 FD) has two catches on three targets for 22 yards (7.2 aDOT), though his playing time figures to decline as Burton's rises.

The Washington side doesn't promise much either, with Paul Richardson ($5,000 DK, $8,000 FD) second on the team with 86 air yards, catching seven of 10 targets for 52 yards, while the underneath work is going to tight end Vernon Davis ($7,800 DK, $7,500 FD) and wide receiver Trey Quinn ($3,800 DK, $8,500 FD), with both players posting aDOTs below 5.5. At least they're getting the ball in their hands, with the former catching seven of 11 targets for 88 yards while the latter has eight catches on 14 targets for 69. Additionally, all three players have one touchdown this season, so while Keenum has been mostly focusing on McLaurin in terms of moving the ball down field, he is finding other guys for scores. Trubisky has also successfully thrown the same number of touchdowns to all of his receivers; unfortunately, they are all tied for the team lead with zero. The downside for McLaurin and Richardson is that they'll likely be lining up against Prince Amukamara and Kyle Fuller, who both grade over 70.0 by PFF, which is enough for Mario Puig to downgrade both of them in his Week 3 Corner Report article (if you don't already read Mario's piece, add it to your list because it's excellent). Those tough matchups at least open up Quinn to face off against Buster Skrine, making him a more viable target, particularly for cash games.

RUNNING BACKS

One of the reasons the wide receivers and tight ends haven't been overly productive is that both quarterbacks like to throw to their running backs, with Washington's Chris Thompson ($7,400 DK, $10,000 FD) second on the team with 116 receiving yards while leading in targets (18) and receptions (12). Understandably, he has only 22 air yards and a 1.2 aDOT, but he can be helpful on DraftKings because of their full point per reception. Adrian Peterson ($5,800 DK, $11,500 FD) figures to get a majority of their carries, and while he caught both of his targets for seven yards last week against Dallas, that isn't likely to be a source of reliable fantasy points.

Similar to Thompson, the Bears use Tarik Cohen ($6,800 DK, $9,500 FD) plenty in the passing game, as he's second on the team in receptions (10), targets (15) and air yards (75), though his usage in the slot may not be nearly as high this week because Miller is playing. Both Miller and Cohen were given upgrades on the Week 3 Corner Report, with Robinson even based on his matchup against Josh Norman. In terms of carries, David Montgomery ($9,400 DK, $12,500 FD) has gotten the majority of the Bears' touches, rushing 24 times for 80 yards and a touchdown while backup Mike Davis ($1,800 DK, $6,500 FD) has eight carries for 20 yards, with none of his opportunities coming in the red zone. There's really no reason to expect Davis to get a huge increase in work Monday as long as Montgomery is healthy, which he is.

If the Bears get out to an early-ish lead and end up running the game out, Montgomery makes a ton of sense as a captain/MVP option, while Cohen or Thompson would need a lot of receptions to make that a viable move.

KICKERS

Low-scoring games always put kickers in play, though it doesn't add to our confidence when Bears kicker Eddy Pineiro ($3,400 DK, $9,000 FD) was added to the injury report Saturday because of a knee injury. Chicago hasn't signed anyone else yet, so the expectation is that Pineiro is healthy enough to play, even if he's not 100 percent. He is coming off a very solid game in Denver when he nailed three field goals, including two from beyond 50 yards, though the altitude certainly helped and that won't be the case Monday. 

Meanwhile, Dustin Hopkins ($3,200 DK, $9,500 FD) didn't attempt a field goal in last week's loss to the Cowboys, though he was perfect on his three PATs, making him six-for-six on the season. PATs aren't helpful enough on Monday's slate, but the Bears defense should be strong enough to keep Washington out of the end zone enough to let Hopkins have a few kicks.

As usual, kickers on DraftKings are much more affordable than FanDuel, as you'll be looking to decide between Pineiro and Miller based on prices in the former's game, while Hopkins will cost you the same as Cohen and $500 less than Thompson on FanDuel.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Bears' defense ($6,200 DK) is one of the best in the NFL and facing a quarterback who threw for 18 touchdowns and 15 interceptions last season in Denver. Given Chicago's track record for turning interceptions and fumbles into touchdowns, and the fact they are decently favored in a low-scoring game, there will definitely be some ownership. Priced only $400 more than Peterson, you'll have to expect the game script to go the opposite direction of the Vegas odds to justify choosing the Washington running back over the Chicago defense.

Meanwhile, the Washington defense comes in with two fantasy points in two games and facing a Bears offense that isn't likely to be throwing enough to warrant lots of interception optimism. Sure, we could see Norman come alive on Monday night, but there are better floor plays like Quinn or either kicker, while players like Gabriel and Miller provide upside the Washington defense isn't likely to reach.