Monday Night DFS Breakdown: Bengals vs. Steelers

The Steelers are 3.5-point home favorites Monday night against the Bengals, with a game total of 44.5 that is up one point since it opened on FanDuel Sportsbook. It is one of the lower totals of Week 4, which shouldn't be overly surprising for a game that will have Andy Dalton on the road and Mason Rudolph under center for the home team. The two are tied for last place in the AFC North with a combined 0-6 record while being outscored 168-103; you know what they say, "if it wasn't for sports betting and DFS..."

QUARTERBACKS

The Bengals defense has been decent against quarterbacks this season, holding Russell Wilson under 200 passing yards (he did have two touchdowns), while Josh Allen needed 46 rushing yards to make it over 19 fantasy points on DraftKings. They did get blown up by the 49ers' Jimmy Garoppolo, who threw for 296 yards and three touchdowns, but the matchup against Mason Rudolph ($9,600 DK, $14,000 FD) shouldn't be overly difficult. Rudolph, who continues to start in place of the injured Ben Roethlisberger, has thrown for two touchdowns in each of his two starts, though he also hasn't passed for even 175 yards, and his 6.2 YPA doesn't create much excitement. However, he's the starting quarterback on a favored home team, so he surely won't be ignored in a single-game format, but it'll take a very unexpected performance to justify using him as a captain on DraftKings or MVP on FanDuel, especially with the former's salary multiplier.

Meanwhile, Andy Dalton ($9,800 DK, $15,000 FD) has thrown multiple touchdowns in two of his three starts, reaching at least 250 passing yards in each, including one with 311 and another with 418. Interestingly, the Steelers defense, which has been slightly worse than the Bengals' against quarterbacks, held Garoppolo in check but were dominated by Tom Brady and Russell Wilson, with the latter two each throwing for at least 300 yards and three touchdowns. Dalton is the most expensive player on FanDuel, though only the third-highest on DraftKings, and it's definitely possible that you could focus on a few of his receivers because his target tree is fairly tight. Then again, many fantasy players really struggle submitting lineups without at least one quarterback, and Dalton is likely to be the higher owned of the two Monday night.

WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS

Speaking of the Bengals' target tree, Tyler Boyd ($9,200 DK, $13,000 FD) leads the team with 24 catches and 33 targets, though his 250 receiving yards and 244 air yards trail John Ross ($8,400 DK, $11,500 FD), who has 13 catches on 26 targets for 292 yards, with 295 air yards and a solid 11.3 aDOT. Ross was awesome in the first two games of the season, combining for 11 catches on 20 targets for 270 yards and three touchdowns, but he really struggled to get much going in Week 3, catching just two of six passes for 22 yards and losing a fumble. Boyd was a bit better against Buffalo last week, catching six of 11 targets for 68 yards, and he's now had double-digit targets in every game this season. However, he has just one game with more than 70 yards, and he's still looking for his first touchdown. It's clear that Ross' speed makes him the down-field threat, as Boyd's 7.4 aDOT trails WR Damion Willis ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), TE Drew Sample ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), Ross and WR Alex Erickson ($800 DK, $5,000 FD), who have combined (not including Ross) to catch 12 of 19 targets for 116 yards. However, their 225 air yards at least peak some interest, especially Willis, who leads the team with a 13.4 aDOT. Then again, Willis didn't play any offensive  snaps last week, and he's only been targeted once since Week 1. Boyd and Ross will surely be the popular Bengals receivers, especially for cash games, with the other guys simply GPP fliers. Erickson is the only one who has a catch in all three games, but that's only because Auden Tate ($4,800 DK, $8,000 FD) didn't play in Week 1. Tate caught six of 10 targets for 88 yards last week, a volume that has made him the third-most targeted receiver on the team this season, though his air yards still trail Willis while his aDOT is behind Willis and Erikson. Tate seems likely to garner some ownership from those who fade Boyd or Ross, with the latter maybe a more likely fade as he lines up against Joe Haden.

Sample is one of three tight ends to get some work this season, but it's tough to make an overwhelming argument for Tyler Eifert ($5,200 DK, $7,500 FD) or C.J. Uzomah ($1,400 DK, $5,000 FD) as high-impact players. At the very least, Eifert has run a route on 88.9 percent of his snaps while getting two more targets than Sample and Uzomah combined (11 to nine), which is why he's much more expensive. All three are reasonable end-zone targets, though Eifert actually leads the team with two red-zone targets, including one inside the five-yard line.

The Steelers present some interesting receiver challenges, if only because Rudolph isn't great and he's been spreading the targets around, with seven players coming in having been targeted at least 10 times, led by JuJu Smith-Schuster ($10,400 DK, $13,500 FD), who has a team-high 14 catches on 23 targets for 243 yards and 225 air yards. Unfortunately, he hasn't been a huge volume guy, failing to get more than eight targets in a game this season, and he still hasn't reached 85 receiving yards. Meanwhile, James Washington ($6,200 DK, $6,500 FD) is second on the team with 205 air yards, but five players on the team have caught more than his six passes (only two have been targeted more). At least his 15.8 aDOT is the highest among players who have actually caught a pass for Pittsburgh this season, but Washington will need to be more efficient to make a fantasy impact. No. 3 wideout Diontae Johnson's ($6,600 DK, $8,500 FD) 15 targets are the second-most on the team, and he did score a touchdown just last weekend, but he's another who needs to actually make more of his opportunities, as he's caught only seven passes for 94 yards. His 11.3 aDOT is serviceable, but the big plays needed for GPP-winning scores seem to be lacking. At the very least, he seems to be ahead of Donte Moncrief ($2,200 DK, $6,000 FD), who has had enough issues with drops that he was inactive for Week 3. He could be a nice bounce-back candidate if he's active Monday, though again, the upside seems fairly minimal. Meanwhile, Ryan Switzer ($1,600 DK, $5,000 FD) has disappeared from the Steelers' passing plans, while Johnny Holton ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) isn't getting nearly enough snaps to warrant much consideration. 

On the tight end side, Vance McDonald ($5,600 DK, $9,500 FD) isn't expected to play because of a shoulder injury, which could give newly acquired Nick Vannett ($4,200 DK, $5,000 FD) a start ahead of Zach Gentry ($600 DK, $5,000 FD), who played 10 snaps last week after being inactive for Weeks 1 and 2. Vannett comes in after catching four of five targets for 38 yards (39 air yards) and a 7.8 aDOT with Seattle, and his minimum price on FanDuel makes him slightly appealing.

RUNNING BACKS

If there's a position fantasy players should be interested in, it's the running backs, as the Bengals have allowed the third-most DraftKings fantasy points per game to running backs and the Steelers the fourth-most (Cincinnati has allowed the second-most on FanDuel and Pittsburgh the fifth-most). Given that situation, it's unsurprising that James Conner ($10,600 DK, $12,000) is the most-expensive player on DraftKings, and he will surely be a very popular captain/MVP choice even if he's generally been awful this season, topping out at 43 rushing yards (Week 3) and 44 receiving yards (Week 1). The Steelers have mostly struggled this season, so there really hasn't been an opportunity to let Conner run as much as possible, but if there's a week to give that strategy a try, it's this one. Conner has dominated the backfield touches, rushing 34 times for 97 yards while Jaylen Samuels ($3,200 DK, $7,000 FD) has rushed only five times for 22 yards and Benny Snell ($1,800 DK, $5,000 FD) four times for 29. Samuels and Snell are obviously cheap on both sites, but neither gets enough touches when Conner is healthy, which he is now.

The Bengals split their backfield touches significantly more, but Joe Mixon ($8,800 DK, $12,500 FD) is still their main guy, doubling Giovani Bernard's ($3,800 DK, $7,000 FD) 16 carries while out-rushing him 87 to 32. If you're doing the quick math, neither player is averaging more than 2.7 yards per carry, so it's not like they've been lighting the fantasy world on fire, but they're facing a Steelers defense that allowed more than 28 DraftKings fantasy points and at least 23 FanDuel fantasy points in three straight games (that's total opponent running back points, not one specific running back each week). And while Bernard is known as the pass-catcher of the two, Mixon comes in with two more receptions (seven to five) on two more targets (10 to eight), and that's with both playing exactly 102 snaps. Dalton figures to be a popular captain/MVP choice among those who think the Bengals put up enough fantasy points, but Mixon makes for a decent pivot.

KICKERS

The kickers for Monday's game are more expensive than we've seen in single-game slates, with the Steelers' Chris Boswell ($5,400 DK, $10,000 FD) ahead of the Bengals' Randy Bullock ($5,100 DK, $9,000 FD) on both sites. Boswell hasn't missed a kick this season, going 5-for-5 on field goal attempts and 4-for-4 on PATs, while Bullock missed one field-goal attempt in Weeks 1 and 2, though he's 6-for-6 on PATs. A game that isn't expecting to be high scoring will certainly put both kickers in consideration, and we saw as recently as Sunday night that kickers can have a major fantasy impact on games that don't have a ton of points. Monday's shouldn't be as gross as what we saw Sunday night, but cash-game players need to keep Boswell and Bullock in their player pools.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Neither team's defense has been good this season in terms of points allowed, but we should continue to prioritize turnovers in our evaluation for fantasy production. Despite giving up 24 points to the 49ers last week, the Steelers ($6,900) had five turnovers and one sack, while the prior week saw them allow 28 to the Seahawks, but they had two fumble recoveries and four sacks. They'll now face Dalton, who has thrown three interceptions and fumbled three times (he lost two) while posting a fairly average 7.9 percent sack rate. 

Meanwhile, Rudolph's 4.2 percent sack rate is one of the lowest in the league, and he's thrown just one pick in each of his first two starts, which doesn't make you want to rush to the Bengals ($4,000 DK) defense after they forced four turnovers in three games while sacking the quarterback once in the past two. Ultimately, the Steelers just haven't been interested in putting Rudolph in situations where he needs to try higher-risk plays, and without those it's tough to get enough turnovers that could turn into touchdowns.