IDP Analysis: Week 1 Preview

We're rapidly approaching the kickoff of the 2023 season. With roster cuts and PUP decisions behind us, we can take into account all of the most recent news as well as changes from earlier in the offseason to try to pinpoint some risers and fallers heading into Week 1.

Trending Up

Jaelan Phillips, LB

There's a case to be made that Phillips will break out this season based on his pedigree and the trajectory of his first two NFL seasons. From his rookie to sophomore season, he increased his snap count by 200 and his QB hits from 16 to 25, yet his sack total dipped from 8.5 to 7.0. That math doesn't add up. Add in the fact that the Dolphins added Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator, a coach renowned for his ability to get the most out of his players, this offseason, and Phillips lines up to be one of the strongest breakout candidates of the season.

David Ojabo, LB [LOHO]

Ojabo could rightfully be a forgotten man entering 2023. He tore his Achilles during Michigan's pro day prior to the 2022 NFL Draft and played only 21 snaps across two games during his rookie season. While he wasn't particularly impactful in that very limited stint, it was nevertheless important for him to be back on the field to regain confidence in himself physically. Before jumping to the present day, it's important to remember that Ojabo was a potential top-10 pick and a lock to go in the first round prior to his injury. Even knowing he'd barely contribute in his rookie year, he was still selected in the second round. Now, he should have a clear runway to a significant role as a pass rusher. General manager Eric DeCosta went out of his way to predict that Ojabo would cement himself as a future contributor for the team, yet another good sign for Ojabo entering year two.  

Isaiah Simmons, LB

We make the shift from promising young players to Simmons, who struggled to find a fit in Arizona during his three years with the team. He was traded to the Giants on Aug. 24, but the team seems intent on finding him a consistent role. They immediately announced that Simmons would play linebacker and then surprisingly cut Darrian Beavers to ensure a spot on the roster for Simmons. This isn't likely to be a fast start, but I'll be watching Simmons closely for any signs of an increased role or breakout.

Leonard Floyd, LB

This is a simple case of one man's loss being another's gain. Von Miller (knee) is still on PUP, meaning Floyd should start the year as a primary pass rusher in Buffalo. He's proven to be a steady pass rusher across the last three seasons, and the four teams the Bills play while Miller is guaranteed to be sidelined are each projected to be below average. Floyd could get off to a hot start before losing much of his value, but there's plenty of reason to be optimistic about his outlook early on.

Dax Hill, S

This is another relatively straightforward case. Both of the Bengals top safeties left this offseason, which will give Hill the chance to step into a full-time role. He's a watchlist-type player because he saw more time on special teams than on the defensive unit in 2022. Nevertheless, opportunity is there, and Lou Anarumo knows how to get the most out of his players.

Trending Down

Nick Bosa, DE and Chris Jones, DE

Bosa and Jones are both holding out for a long-term extension. Bosa is the more prominent player from an IDP point of view and a contract extension should be coming in the next few days. It would be a pretty significant surprise if something wasn't done before the 49ers' Week 1 matchup against the Steelers. On the other hand, it was assumed a deal would be done long ago. Clearly that isn't the case. The team has downplayed any increased injury potential, but Bosa has been away for the entirety of training camp and was on the injury report for a pair of soft tissue injuries in 2022.

There are fewer reasons for optimism for Jones. He made it publicly known he'd sit out until Week 8 and unsubstantiated trade rumors have been swirling on Twitter.  It's a near certainty he won't be suiting up for Week 1, and if he does, it will certainly be at a diminished capacity.

Zaven Collins, DE

A former Cardinals 'tweener, Collins was on the riser list because he escaped the situation in the desert. He hasn't had the same fortune and has shifted positions from linebacker to edge rusher this offseason. That means less opportunity to rack up tackles and fantasy points.

Chase Young, DE

Young can't seem to stay healthy. We all know about his return from ACL surgery last season, but he was projected to be fully ready for 2023. Unfortunately, things haven't worked out that way, as he suffered a neck stinger during the Commanders' first preseason game and he has yet to be cleared for contact. That doesn't strike a lot of confidence for his status heading into Week 1. His fantasy managers will be left to hope that doesn't set the tone for the rest of the campaign.