This article is part of our NFL Waiver Wire series.
Whether you're a first-time guillotine league player or an experienced player, we're all asking ourselves the same question: how much of my free agent acquisition budget (FAAB) should I spend this week?
My advice: be frugal early in the season.
Play the Odds
You advanced through the first two weeks. You are one of 16 survivors. All things being equal, you only have a 6.25% chance of being the next team eliminated.
Perhaps you have one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league so far, or your team is suffering from injuries. There's no need to panic. Even if you have the "worst" team left, your odds of making it to Week 4 are probably over 90%, and your chances will look nearly as good next week too -- even if you don't make any transactions.
Understand the Value of $1
On GuillotineLeagues.com, owners start with $1,000 in FAAB. If you play in a full 18-team league, the market is flooded with $18,000 to start the season, and 5.55% of the total FAAB is yours.
By November, there may be $5,000 total in the market, as half of the teams get eliminated and the surviving teams spend on free agents. If, for example, you managed to survive and still have $800 available, you now own 16% of the total FAAB in the league. The value of each of your dollars has nearly tripled, giving you leverage to acquire whichever players you want down the final stretch.
Always Look for Ways to Improve
As much as I'd like to emphasize saving, that doesn't mean that you should sit back idly. You should still be looking for opportunities to solve short-term issues like injuries and bye weeks, and you might also back into a good deal on a long-term, league-winning player.
I place bids on nearly every player that would improve my starting lineup at the price that I think is fair for the market. I expect that someone else will probably outbid me on most claims, but if they don't, I'll be satisfied with the value that I get.
Bidding Strategy
I put players into three categories which determine my bidding strategy.
Championship Starters:
The top players are those who I can imagine in my lineup in December, confidently battling for the championship. I would love to get these players as early in the season as possible, but the price has to be reasonable. After Week 2 eliminations, elite players like Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson and Jonathan Taylor are available in about 7% of leagues. I would be willing to place up to a $200 bid on any of them at this point in the season.
Probable Starters:
These are players who will be in my starting lineup regularly for the first two months of the season but will probably get phased out by sometime in November. Aaron Jones and Tony Pollard are available in about 10% of leagues and fit in this range for me. I would bid up to $40 for them.
Streamers:
These players are only getting starts based on favorable matchups or short-term opportunities caused by injuries. Demarcus Robinson is a good example of a player who could take advantage of greater usage due to injuries to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Bid up to $10 on these types of players.
Any player who doesn't fit into one of these three categories isn't worthy of a bid.
Can I Still Join a Guillotine League This Season?
Yes! You can start leagues any week of the season for as long as you want.
Here's how it works:
1. Set up and draft your team just like traditional fantasy football
2. Each week the lowest scoring team gets eliminated
3. All of the players from the eliminated team become free agents
4. A weekly FAAB bidding war starts among the remaining teams
5. Survive the chop and be crowned champion
Public and Private Leagues are open at GuillotineLeagues.com.
