This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Games
Atlanta Falcons 
(ATL +2.5) (-114) at Carolina Panthers 
Like a bad ex-girlfriend, I just can't seem to quit the Falcons, no matter how many times they hurt me. They really should be better than they are and they should use Kyle Pitts more and they should be looking for Matt Ryan's replacement and…..well, there are too many "should"s to list in the ATL. With such a glowing review, by now you have to be wondering why I'm leading with the Dirty Birds. Well, one can argue that Carolina is an even bigger disaster. Not only did they voluntarily sign Sam Darnold to be their QB to start the year, but they also doubled down on bad QBs by bringing in Cam Newton to replace him. At this point, Cam is jealous of Johnny Damon's arm strength. And just this week, the Panthers fired promising OC Joe Brady, essentially because he was too innovative and refused to dumb down the game plan. Brady will be out of work for roughly 16 seconds. This team has proven over and over they stink without Christian McCaffrey and Sunday will be no different. ATL is 5-2 ATS away from home this year….I'll let them slap me across the face one more time.
Jacksonville Jaguars 
at Tennessee Titans 
TOTAL (U 43.5) (-106)
Mercy, is the AFC South horrendous or what? What did humanity do for this game to exist? Without King Derrick Henry or Arthur Juan Brown in the lineup, the Titans simply can't score. The Jags need no qualifier……they can't score, period. Urban Meyer has retarded Trevor Lawrence's development so badly, I'm beginning to wonder if he will ever be able to recover. In their last 3 games, Tennessee is averaging 15.6 ppg. Since their Week 7 bye, JAX is averaging 10.6 ppg. Those are seriously putrid numbers. A 17-10 "masterpiece" seems about right. Hold your nose and take the under.
Chicago Bears 
at Green Bay Packers 
TOTAL (U 43) (-115)
Those of you born before the new millennium might remember when this was an interesting rivalry. The rest of you are going to roll your eyes and assume Grandpa needs to take his pills before getting in front of a keyboard the next time he writes. I promise, it's true! Now, I don't trust the GB defense against competent offenses, but to call the Bears a bad offense is an insult to bad offenses everywhere. This is also a play that reflects a sneaky injury that could have a significant impact on the Packers' offense. Randall Cobb was hand-picked by Aaron Rodgers to be his security blanket and Cobb has done an excellent job being exactly that. With Cobb now out and TE Robert Tonyan lost for the year, both Rodgers' safety blankets are missing from the offense. I foresee GB taking some time to adjust to this new normal, and this is the Bears' Super Bowl, so you know they will give max effort. Green Bay still has enough talent to be vanilla and win and I think that's exactly how this one plays out.
Other Bets
2-Team Teaser of the Week: Cincinnati Bengals (+7.5) and Seattle Seahawks (-6.5), Parlay (+130)
With the wild swings that come with the Bengals' youth, the pendulum is due to swing back to "good" against a team that made Seattle's offense look great last week. Joe Burrow looks to be fine, but I do have some concern with the number of Bengals that are dealing with the flu, so keep an eye out on player status as we near Sunday. The Niners just can't stay healthy and does anyone really trust Jimmy G, particularly if Deebo Samuel isn't able to go? I sure don't. Speaking of Seattle, did they actually figure something out last week? Did Pete Carroll remember that DK Metcalf is pretty good? Is Russell Wilson back to health and form? Does it matter against a really bad Texans outfit that is choosing to play Davis Mills at QB? Seattle thrives in this spot, going 12-1 in their last 13 games with an early kickoff and should roll.
Chuba Hubbard over 59.5 rushing yards (-114)
As I mentioned in the opening blurb, Carolina is a mess and wants to dumb down the offense to run the ball more. The biggest beneficiary of that shift will be Hubbard, who has proven to be competent in his rookie season, filling in for the oft-injured Christian McCaffrey. After firing the OC, I have a feeling they are going to come out to prove a point with the run game, to the point of being stubborn, regardless of success. I believe Hubbard is going to see 20+ carries, which is well above his magic number of 15. Hubbard has received more than 15 carries in three games, and in those games, he rushed for 101, 61, and 82 yards, and one of those games was against the Falcons. Some might say this choice contradicts my ATL +2.5 selection, but I think it compliments it perfectly. Hubbard will get his yards between the 20s but the Panthers will continue to struggle to score against an ATL defense that is 9th in the NFL in rush TDs allowed.
Jermar Jefferson Any Time Touchdown Scorer (+220)
Someone has to score for Detroit, right? And say what you will about the Lions and Dan Campbell, but this team does play hard, despite their obvious shortcomings. With both D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams out, Jefferson and Godwin Igwebuike will be the tandem in the Lions' backfield. Igwebuike appears to be the passing game option while Jefferson is favored in the run game, and Jefferson seems to have a nose for the end zone, scoring twice already this year in limited touches. Denver isn't a team that will run away and hide, so I anticipate the game to stay close and the script to be in Jefferson's favor. At this number, it is worth a flier.
PAST RESULTS
Last week: 5-1, +3.98 units
Player props have been very good to us so far. 5-1 is much more what I expect from myself….let's keep it rolling!
Overall: 8-4, +3.78 units
