This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
We finally hit a solid one in the Week 5 tickets, with Robby Anderson going over 100 yards in a Panthers win at +630. Unfortunately, DeVante Parker couldn't even go over 63.5 yards in the Dolphins' annihilation of the 49ers, while James Robinson came up short of his 85.5 combined rushing and receiving yards total.
We also failed on Daniel Jones over 260.5 passing yards, Evan Engram anytime touchdown and Darius Slayton over 56.5 receiving yards at +636, though it makes me feel a bit better that I ended the article with a note about taking Jones out of the bet, with the Slayton over and Engram touchdown hitting at +480.
There is still plenty of COVID uncertainty with these games, but let's see what we can find for the Week 6 tickets.
Adam Thielen over 84.5 receiving yards and anytime touchdown same-game parlay (+212)
Thielen is widely considered one of the best wide receivers for Week 5, as he faces a Falcons defense that allowed the second-most receiving yards to wideouts through five games on a second-highest 9.94 yards per target. He is the fourth-ranked wide receiver by Jeff Erickson, and he has the most projected receiving yards of any player this week. His touchdown odds of -110 are the third-best in the game, trailing running backs Alexander Mattison (-190) and Todd Gurley (-120), but Thielen leads the team in red-zone targets and has gotten into the end zone in all but one game this season, which was Week 2 against the Colts. And if you think Thielen crushes his receiving prop but doesn't score a touchdown in a Vikings win, 100+ yards and a Vikings victory is +255.
T.J. Hockenson over 44.5 receiving yards and Kenny Golladay anytime touchdown same-game parlay (+284)
We'll copy the above template and move to the Lions, who face a Jaguars defense that's allowed the third-most receiving yards to tight ends, including a league-high 12.57 YPT, and five wide receiver touchdowns in the past four games. I'll be honest that I considered adding Golladay going over 73.5 receiving yards to the same-game parlay, which moves the odds to +520, but our own projection of 75.75 receiving yards held me back. If you're riskier than me, you know what to do.
A.J. Brown 100+ yards receiving and Titans win (+330)
Brown came back from injury with a bang Tuesday against the Bills, catching seven of nine targets for 82 yards and a touchdown, and he seems to finally be producing like the WR1 we've all envisioned for the past year. Brown's receiving yards prop is only 65.5, which seems very low compared to our projected 75.78, so I'd certainly take the over at -110 for that one. And if you think he gets into the end zone again (Derrick Henry at -260 and Jonnu Smith at +125 are more likely), parlaying the yardage prop with that touchdown is +271, which is a better payout than a Brown touchdown in a Titans win (+230).
Myles Gaskin over 22.5 receiving yards, over 57.5 rushing yards and anytime touchdown same game parlay +418
After his glowing report in this week's Hidden Stat Line, it's tough not to be very optimistic about Gaskin in a game where the Dolphins are 9.5-point favorites at home against the Jets.
- Goal-line vulture Jordan Howard was a healthy scratch, which helped Gaskin score his first TD of the year (from one yard out, no less). MG's 63 percent snap share actually tied a season low from Week 1, but that was partially due to the Dolphins reducing his playing time late in the game.
- Gaskin played 69.4 percent of snaps in the first half, and 54.8 percent in the second half. Breida got 25.0 percent before halftime, compared to 38.7 percent after the break.
- Gaskin played 13 of 14 snaps on third downs. He also got four of the five red-zone carries, plus he saw three RZ targets. In addition to the one-yard TD, he was stopped for no gain on another carry from the one-yard line, though it was nullified by a clipping penalty anyway.
- Gaskin has now drawn four or more targets in every game, with double-digit carries in each of the past three. He hasn't been super efficient at 3.9 YPC and 5.9 YPT, but he's on pace for 1,267 total yards, averaging 12.8 carries and 5.0 targets per game.
This bet makes much more sense if Howard is again inactive because it presumably gives Gaskin those goal-line opportunities, but even so he should be heavily used as long as the Jets can keep it somewhat close (welp). There are obviously a number of ways you can play Gaskin, including a simple Gaskin anytime touchdown and Dolphins win (+110), but we're here for fun (yes, yes, any winning is fun). And since I've been referencing our projections so much, we have Gaskin at 62.07 rushing yards and 24.14 receiving yards, while his -145 anytime touchdown odds are the best in the game, with DeVante Parker next at +120.
