FanDuel NFL: Week 8 Breakdown

This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Football series.

After a smaller main slate last week, we return to the maximum of 13 games in Week 8. We also have a lot of the elite talent returning, as Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and the Miami offense are available in the player pool. With those things in mind, let's jump in.

The Games

A lot of the focus of DFS picks is on individual players. Skills certainly matter, but finding game environments that are likely to promote a lot of points scored is a way to narrow the focus of our player pool.

• We have another week where the highest game totals are driven by favorites, with underdogs that are projected to lag behind. That suggests two things. First, game stacks might not be the best way to build. Second, for those who want to build through game stacks, finding underdogs you believe will cover will be the best game environments to target. 
• The favorites with the highest totals include the Cowboys, Dolphins, 49ers, Chiefs, Ravens and Eagles.

Value Options

This section will highlight players that project well on a point-per-dollar basis. DFS analysis will often focus on getting 3X return on a player's salary, or another similar mark. This is only a part of the analysis, but it can help identify potential salary savers or building blocks for lineups.

Dameon Pierce vs. CAR ($6,700)

Pierce has had a miserable season to this point and is overpriced based solely on his production. He's reached double-digit FD points in only two of six games and has been held to less than six FD points on three occasions. That's not exactly what we're looking for. Given that, it's a make-or-break game for Pierce. He fell into a timeshare with Devin Singletary in Week 6 before the team's bye, so there's risk from a workload perspective. However, the combination of matchup and price keeps him in the conversation as a solid value play, as Carolina has been among the softest defenses against the run this season. In matchups against traditional running backs, they've allowed at least 95 yards on four occasions and multiple touchdowns to the same back four times. This is the week for Pierce to get it done. 

Rashee Rice at DEN ($6,000)

Kansas City consolidated its routes and wide receiver roles in Week 7. Travis Kelce led the team with 36 routes run, followed by Marquez Valdes-Scantling with 35. Next was Rice with 30. He also posted a 20 percent target per route run rate while racking up 2.00 yards per route run. Any receiver with that type of role paired with Patrick Mahomes should be priced higher, and Rice's price will inevitably be on the rise. Now is the time to roster him. Denver began the season as a matchup to target. That's changed the last few weeks, but it's not a matchup we have to shy away from — particularly with this offense.

Other Value Options

QB Matthew Stafford at DAL ($6,500)
QB Kenny Pickett vs. JAC ($6,500)
RB Aaron Jones vs. MIN ($6,800)
RB Gus Edwards at ARI ($6,600)
RB Miles Sanders vs. HOU ($6,300) 
RB Javonte Williams vs. KC ($6,000)
RB Darrell Henderson at DAL ($5,900)
WR Terry McLaurin vs. PHI ($7,000)
WR Christian Kirk at PIT ($7,000)
WR Drake London at TEN ($6,700)
WR Zay Flowers at ARI ($6,500)
WR Diontae Johnson vs. JAC ($6,400)
WR Josh Downs vs. NO ($6,100)
WR Tank Dell at CAR ($6,000)
TE Dalton Schultz at CAR ($5,800)
TE Kyle Pitts at TEN ($5,500)
TE Jonnu Smith at TEN ($5,300)
TE Trey McBride vs. BAL ($4,700)

Stacks to Consider

Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Rams

Referring back to "The Games" section of this article, this matchup is intriguing because I expect the Rams will top their implied total. We also know who the offense will flow through. Since Cooper Kupp ($9,100) has returned, he's earned 28 targets in three games and Puka Nacua ($8,000) has 30. Tutu Atwell ($5,400) has only eight, while Tyler Higbee ($4,800) has nine. It might be difficult to project whether Kupp or Nacua will perform better each week, but it's a strong possibility that at least one will have a significant score every week. The Cowboys rank as one of the better pass defenses in the league in terms of fantasy points allowed, but in their first six games, they've had the privilege of facing Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, Joshua Dobbs and Mac Jones. The biggest fear is that there will be too much pressure on Stafford for him to operate effectively.

Even with the higher total, the Dallas side is the one that would make me more hesitant to play this matchup. The Cowboys play at the slowest situation-neutral pace (Los Angeles is fifth fastest), but they arguably make up for that with the fourth-highest pass rate over expectation (Los Angeles is league average). The other strange part of the Cowboys' offense is the lack of aggressiveness of their passing attack. Dak Prescott ($7,300) has only 6.9 air yards per attempt — his previous career low is 7.5 — and that plays out in the fact that Tony Pollard ($7,600) and Jake Ferguson ($4,900) lead the team with 27.1 and 28.2 percent target-per-route-run rates. Meanwhile, CeeDee Lamb ($7,800) is at 25.3 percent.

For those who roster this stack, the hope is that Los Angeles can jump out to an early lead and force the Dallas offense to be more aggressive. That would open the door for Michael Gallup ($5,500) and Brandin Cooks ($5,300) to deliver at their price points.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

This is an intriguing spot. The game total certainly isn't impressive, but the way the teams line up from a strengths and weaknesses perspective suggests that it could exceed expectations. Jacksonville is a pass funnel. They allow the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and 11th-most to wide receivers, while surrendering the 11th-fewest points to running backs. A more straightforward way to articulate that is that Jacksonville's opponents collectively have a 5.8 percent pass rate over expectation this season. Far from being an elite offense, the Steelers opened up a bit in Week 7 thanks to the return of Diontae Johnson ($6,400). He's a nice value, because we know targets will funnel his direction. George Pickens ($7,400) is the stronger on-paper play, however, as he has a rapport with Kenny Pickett ($6,500). Pickens has accounted for a whopping 46.8 percent of the team's air yards and has a 26.8 percent target share. They are the only two pass catchers who will be consistently targeted, particularly with Pat Freiermuth (hamstring) sidelined. What the offense lacks in explosiveness, it should make up for with predictability and perhaps volume specifically in this spot. 

The Jaguars' side of this game is fairly straightforward. The Steelers have allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers. In four games since Week 3, they've allowed three pass catchers to top 150 yards. If Christian Kirk ($7,000) weren't highlighted in this stack section, he'd be the "Smash Spot" player of the week. Calvin Ridley ($6,800) has four performances with 5.5 FD points or under this season, but this is a good spot for him to produce. With Zay Jones (knee) out, targets are condensed in Jacksonville. Evan Engram ($5,700) has an impressive 21.4 percent target share, but only a 12.2 percent air yards share that has translated to an abysmal 3.9 aDOT.

Other Stacks to Consider

Miami – Tua Tagovailoa ($8,200) + Tyreek Hill ($9,500)
Philadelphia – Jalen Hurts ($9,200) + A.J. Brown ($8,700)
Kansas City – Patrick Mahomes ($9,000) + Travis Kelce ($9,000) + Rashee Rice ($6,000)

High-Priced Heroes

Alvin Kamara at IND ($8,300)

In four games since returning from a suspension, Kamara has seen no fewer than 24 touches and he's topped 100 total yards in each of his last two games. The volume could decline a bit as Jamaal Williams continues to ramp up in his return from a hamstring injury, but Kamara will still comfortably lead the backfield. He'll also walk into an excellent matchup, as the Colts have been gouged twice by Travis Etienne, gave up 26.2 points to Kyren Williams (ankle), and served a combined 31.5 points to Jerome Ford (ankle) and Kareem Hunt in Week 7.

A.J. Brown at WAS ($8,700)

Perhaps Brown entered the season with the reputation of being a boom-or-bust option, but since Week 3, he's never fallen below 15.7 FD points. A letdown will come eventually, but it doesn't look likely in this spot. Brown roasted the Commanders' secondary for a 34-point performance in Week 4. They kept Stefon Diggs out of the end zone, but he managed an 8-111 line, and DJ Moore obliterated their secondary with an 8-230-3 line. Brown could be the "had to have him" player of Week 8.

The Smash Spot

Breece Hall at NYG ($7,200)

This is Hall's second appearance as the "Smash Spot" player, with the first coming in Week 5. Since then, he's delivered 26.9 and 17.8 FD points, the latter of which was against one of the better rush defenses in the league in Philadelphia. He won't face such a tough opponent in Week 8 against the Giants, a team that has given up big games to every elite running back it's faced. It's a tough week for running back, so rely on Hall at a reasonable price.